Winter 2016-2017 Speculation and Discussion

[mitchnick]

20 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

 

Just hug the Jamstec. Makes life much more relaxing. Weak nina and a +PDO for the win!

 

 

 

That thing even showed us below normal for last winter around this time! (yes, I know you're kidding, but if I give up making weenie forecasts I can always go back to forecasting JAMSTEC seasonal forecasts with precision )

[WEATHER53]

23 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

 

Thanks but I kinda left out the fact that all but 1 analog was a crappy snow year. I have low expectations for the seasonal total. But we're on a roll so there's plenty of room for false hope. 

We are leaning this way also, overall temps at or below average but low snow totals 

[Bob Chill]

22 hours ago, Tenman Johnson said:

We are leaning this way also, overall temps at or below average but low snow totals 

 

Final call:

 

Cool/cold start, warm finish, and below climo snow...or a 95-96 redux. 

[mitchnick]

2 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

 

Final call:

 

Cool/cold start, warm finish, and below climo snow...or a 95-96 redux. 

My gut says a greater number of seasonal busts this year than normal due to the wacky combo and unusual transitions wrt ENSO and QBO. But come spring, it'll be one factor that ruled the roost and most will be kicking themselves wondering why they didn't see it in advance. That's my weenie forecast of forecasts.

[BTRWx]

On 8/9/2016 at 10:05 AM, mitchnick said:

That thing even showed us below normal for last winter around this time! (yes, I know you're kidding, but if I give up making weenie forecasts I can always go back to forecasting JAMSTEC seasonal forecasts with precision )

More and more the JAMSTEC seems to be becoming more overrated.  I used to think it was great, but now I'd rate its verification half way between eps and cfs, and maybe an edge up on gefs long range guidance. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

11 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

 

Final call:

 

Cool/cold start, warm finish, and below climo snow...or a 95-96 redux. 

I think I'll just go with 13-14 and 14-15 and call it a day.

Or...temps -2 to +2, snowfall 50% to 150% of climo 

I'm nailing it on one of those.

[frd]

16 hours ago, BTRWx said:

More and more the JAMSTEC seems to be becoming more overrated.  I used to think it was great, but now I'd rate its verification half way between eps and cfs, and maybe an edge up on gefs long range guidance. 

https://www.wxrisk.com/1st-speculation-of-winter-2016-2017/

 

DT has released his "speculation" regarding the upcoming winter season. Seeems the JASMTEC  has some support in terms of the general direction of the La Nina, along with some support for the general SST profile. A Pacific Ocean centered Modoki is a rare one indeed as DT discusses. Interestingly,  he also discusses the second half of the winter be even colder and stormier, as blocking seems to grow more favorable. 

I like snow, and I tend to agree with his general early thoughts :-)      

Maybe we also return this winter season to a more prolonged and frequent - NAO. It will not be too long before we start monitoring the progress of winter's return. 

[North Balti Zen]

Hoping for the best, but "late season blocking" around here of late means ---April to May, not Feb - March...

[WinterWxLuvr]

3 hours ago, frd said:

https://www.wxrisk.com/1st-speculation-of-winter-2016-2017/

 

DT has released his "speculation" regarding the upcoming winter season. Seeems the JASMTEC  has some support in terms of the general direction of the La Nina, along with some support for the general SST profile. A Pacific Ocean centered Modoki is a rare one indeed as DT discusses. Interestingly,  he also discusses the second half of the winter be even colder and stormier, as blocking seems to grow more favorable. 

I like snow, and I tend to agree with his general early thoughts :-)      

Maybe we also return this winter season to a more prolonged and frequent - NAO. It will not be too long before we start monitoring the progress of winter's return. 

When I read that, I first saw 95-96.  I was all in.  Then I saw 2011-2012.  I then wanted to kick a puppy.

Then I saw 2012-2013, thought of the early March storm of 2013, laughed, and said lets do it.

[BTRWx]

10 hours ago, North Balti Zen said:

Hoping for the best, but "late season blocking" around here of late means ---April to May, not Feb - March...

Realistically I think that is where we may be headed.  I'm not falling victim to expecting a fourth consecutive good winter.  Where I would err on the side of caution for any seasonal expectations for both boom and bust years is the presence of the neutral signal.  I think near-neutral enso can greatly increase uncertainty.

[Bob Chill]

Heh, might be time to start forgetting about enso as a useful tool this winter. The trend has been consistently moving towards no enso event all summer. 

 

 

 

 

 

[showmethesnow]

Like our snow chances much better with the ENSO forecast now then what we were seeing late winter/early spring. The strong La Nina forecast was a virtual kiss of death to any meaningful snow for our area as is evidenced in the chart below. Going by the charts below, which are admittedly a small data set, it looks as if our best chances of above snowfall for the region with a weak la nina or neutral look would be a moderate to strong -NAO. A weak +Nao to neutral NAO doesn't take us out of the game but it looks as if we would be basically dealing with a crap shoot where some other factor is driving the weather. Wonder what that could be. AO?

http://www.weather.gov/lwx/ENSONAO_vs_Local_Winter_Snowfall

 

 

 

 

[Bob Chill]

Matt and I have kicked around the idea that the 2013-2015 stretch was similar to winters of the 60's in some ways but without blocking. I think I'll hug the 66-67 analog for now (neg neutral after strong nino). 

[WEATHER53]

10 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

Matt and I have kicked around the idea that the 2013-2015 stretch was similar to winters of the 60's in some ways but without blocking. I think I'll hug the 66-67 analog for now (neg neutral after strong nino). 

 Big snow winter in 66 followed by blazing hot summer.  2010 blizzarded and baked and so has 2016

[Bob Chill]

CFS has been showing a -epo dominated DJF for days now. Aleutian low as well. We could work with this. Maybe a 2013-14 redux:

 

 

[mitchnick]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/usPrecSeaInd5.gif

19 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

CFS has been showing a -epo dominated DJF for days now. Aleutian low as well. We could work with this. Maybe a 2013-14 redux:

 

 

 speaking of the CFS2, I love how it likes to fook with us MA folks!

[Bob Chill]

Come on Mitch. You know your supposed to cherry pick data #1 and #2...stop using Atari 2600 graphics

Looks like Dec noreasters galore to me:

 

 

 

 

[mitchnick]

5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Come on Mitch. You know your supposed to cherry pick data #1 and #2...stop using Atari 2600 graphics

Looks like Dec noreasters galore to me:

 

 

 

 

But I am not worthy    

What's so sad is with all the products that the CFS2 pumps out, there's always something for everyone.....for the same location and the same forecast period! 

[MDstorm]

Jamstec has gone from this

 

to this

Very consistent......lol.

[mitchnick]

7 hours ago, MDstorm said:

Jamstec has gone from this

 

to this

Very consistent......lol.

That's why those of us in here who have been around the block a few times always stick with the CFS2 if we want consistency. 

[WEATHERBUFF]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

That's why those of us in here who have been around the block a few times always stick with the CFS2 if we want consistency. 

Besides Jamstec does not have a good track record!

[nw baltimore wx]

If the Jamstec images can be posted, then this should be too.

[WinterWxLuvr]

On August 16, 2016 at 10:32 AM, Bob Chill said:

Come on Mitch. You know your supposed to cherry pick data #1 and #2...stop using Atari 2600 graphics

Looks like Dec noreasters galore to me:

 

 

 

 

Dude, it's blasphemy to throw off on the Atari 2600.

[WxUSAF]

9 hours ago, nw baltimore wx said:

If the Jamstec images can be posted, then this should be too.

Watch out you folks in NoVA.  Penetrating and very wet.  Oh my.  Ravens rule might be moving your way.  

[mattie g]

33 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Watch out you folks in NoVA.  Penetrating and very wet.  Oh my.  Ravens rule might be moving your way.  

I'm "in."

[ravensrule]

4 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Watch out you folks in NoVA.  Penetrating and very wet.  Oh my.  Ravens rule might be moving your way.  

I'm there already lying in wait. It's pretty damp in here. 

[frd]

Interesting,  that we have a pretty strong polar vortex for August currently , very cold at the top, even saw Ryan with a mention about this a few days ago. If, this storm had more frontal interaction it could influence sea ice formation and melt.  

From when this was discussed below a few days ago below in Ryan's thread, I was checking some images and it appears that sea ice has been affected , losing some closer to the Siberia side and gaining some in the Northern parts of Canada.

Normally sometimes later in the fall season you can see some indications of where the cold may line up and snow depth builds based on these things. Not sure that has any science backing or not ,  but I have seen them discussed here on the board.          

 

 

 

 

[das]

On 8/18/2016 at 2:37 PM, frd said:

Interesting,  that we have a pretty strong polar vortex for August currently , very cold at the top, even saw Ryan with a mention about this a few days ago. If, this storm had more frontal interaction it could influence sea ice formation and melt.  

From when this was discussed below a few days ago below in Ryan's thread, I was checking some images and it appears that sea ice has been affected , losing some closer to the Siberia side and gaining some in the Northern parts of Canada.

Normally sometimes later in the fall season you can see some indications of where the cold may line up and snow depth builds based on these things. Not sure that has any science backing or not ,  but I have seen them discussed here on the board.          

 

 

 

 

On and off non-sticking snow at Barrow at 33F.  Time lapse loop for the day:

http://feeder.gina.alaska.edu/dragonfly/movies/2016/8/18/7831/7831_webcam-uaf-barrow-seaice-images_2016-8-18_1-day-animation.mp4

[mitchnick]

August run of the European Long Range looks fairly normal with temps and precip. Interestingly, it does have some decent lower pressures near us. This is a link to South America (the best we can do for free off the Euro site.) Check out the different parameters from the list on the left side of the page. The link below is for temps starting in 11/16. As for ENSO, it's an unequivocal neutral.

http://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts/seasonal/2m-temperature-public-charts-long-range-forecast?time=2016080100,2904,2016113000&area=South America&forecast_type_and_skill_measures=tercile summary

 

[BTRWx]

On 8/22/2016 at 0:30 PM, mitchnick said:

August run of the European Long Range looks

Quote

fairly normal with temps and precip.

Interestingly, it does have some decent lower pressures near us. This is a link to South America (the best we can do for free off the Euro site.) Check out the different parameters from the list on the left side of the page. The link below is for temps starting in 11/16. As for ENSO, it's an unequivocal neutral.

http://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts/seasonal/2m-temperature-public-charts-long-range-forecast?time=2016080100,2904,2016113000&area=South America&forecast_type_and_skill_measures=tercile summary

 

That's what I'd lean towards