Winter 2016-2017 Speculation and Discussion

[mattie g]

[CAPE]

-NAO will finally return and be legit during winter. Blocky + La Nada. Book it.

[mitchnick]

6 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

-NAO will finally return and be legit during winter. Blocky + La Nada. Book it.

I'm thinking along the same lines and I like it when the CFS2, or any seasonal model for that matter, shows Greenland on fire for the winter months.

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/htmls/arT2me3Sea.html

[frd]

Very interesting SST forecasts off the Atlantic East Coast up to near Greenland, as well as the Gulf of Alaska during the winter. 

Could imply frequent storm genesis off the East Coast in January and February, along with stalling bombs and even some loops for fun.

Hopefully a fun winter for all.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

[snowman19]

15 hours ago, frd said:

Very interesting SST forecasts off the Atlantic East Coast up to near Greenland, as well as the Gulf of Alaska during the winter. 

Could imply frequent storm genesis off the East Coast in January and February, along with stalling bombs and even some loops for fun.

Hopefully a fun winter for all.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

How do you figure this? I'm not following 

[snowman19]

On June 28, 2016 at 10:55 AM, easternsnowman said:

I never heard of these people on there.

Just to follow up, there is a real big drop in the PDO continuing. The North Pacific High has been totally dominating and this is the result:  

[psuhoffman]

16 hours ago, snowman19 said:

How do you figure this? I'm not following 

He may be implying the warmth off the east could be good for storn cyclogenesis. The cold pool predicted south of Alaska definitely is good for a trough in the east and the general warmth off the west coast is also good. Way too early but things look decent right now for at least a chance at a colder snowier winter then many thought a few months ago. Even several early winter forecasts from media outlets have echoed that. For whatever that is worth. I don't put much into seasonal until at least early fall but certainly more good signs then bad right now. 

[snowman19]

14 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

He may be implying the warmth off the east could be good for storn cyclogenesis. The cold pool predicted south of Alaska definitely is good for a trough in the east and the general warmth off the west coast is also good. Way too early but things look decent right now for at least a chance at a colder snowier winter then many thought a few months ago. Even several early winter forecasts from media outlets have echoed that. For whatever that is worth. I don't put much into seasonal until at least early fall but certainly more good signs then bad right now. 

You definitely don't want cold ssts south of Alaska (cold GOA). That supports a AK or GOA vortex 

[mattie g]

14 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

You definitely don't want cold ssts south of Alaska (cold GOA). That supports a AK or GOA vortex 

It depends on which cold pool you're talking about. Cold in the Gulf of Alaska implies warmth south of there, and thus a less-than-ideal -PDO; however, a cold pool south of the GoA generally means a +PDO.

Psuhoffman knows his s**t, so I have a feeling he was referring to the latter.

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, mattie g said:

It depends on which cold pool you're talking about. Cold in the Gulf of Alaska implies warmth south of there, and thus a less-than-ideal -PDO; however, a cold pool south of the GoA generally means a +PDO.

Psuhoffman knows his s**t, so I have a feeling he was referring to the latter.

I have the feeling he knows too since I'm referring to where the cold pool actually is and is predicted and he can look on a map. He seems to have an agenda with all his posts. 

[showmethesnow]

Took a casual glance at the CFS ENSO prediction and it looks much better for this fall/winter then what it had early this spring with a very strong La Nina. Per NOAA the probability of a La Nina has been dropped from 75% to 55-60% and looking at the temp profile would suggest we are now probably talking a weak event. The way it is progressing I wonder if we could possibly get a neutral event? Of course this is still early and the CFS hasn't been the greatest model to rely on recently so I guess we shall see.

[CAPE]

4 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

Took a casual glance at the CFS ENSO prediction and it looks much better for this fall/winter then what it had early this spring with a very strong La Nina. Per NOAA the probability of a La Nina has been dropped from 75% to 55-60% and looking at the temp profile would suggest we are now probably talking a weak event. The way it is progressing I wonder if we could possibly get a neutral event? Of course this is still early and the CFS hasn't been the greatest model to rely on recently so I guess we shall see.

Yeah I just looked at the latest ENSO update...kinda looking like neutral-weak Nina, which is encouraging given the earlier idea of a possible moderate or even a strong La Nina for fall and winter.

[mattie g]

If...IF...we go weak/neutral Nina, then I'm calling a White Christmas. February might torch, and our now big winter month (March) might boil, but I'll take my chances in December and January.

[wxdude64]

57 minutes ago, mattie g said:

If...IF...we go weak/neutral Nina, then I'm calling a White Christmas. February might torch, and our now big winter month (March) might boil, but I'll take my chances in December and January.

I'll second this

[lookingnorth]

On July 7, 2016 at 3:36 PM, Ian said:

We don't have bad winters anymore. Sadly..

We don't have good winters anymore where I live. Wanna trade?

[showmethesnow]

7 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Yeah I just looked at the latest ENSO update...kinda looking like neutral-weak Nina, which is encouraging given the earlier idea of a possible moderate or even a strong La Nina for fall and winter.

At one point late winter/spring weren't they predicting a record breaking or near record breaking event?  I think they also were initially showing this past El Nino to be a near record breaking event as well. Of course my memory is quite often faulty, which my wife is fond of reminding me of, so maybe I am just misremembering. 

I do like the fact that the subsurface cold pool is shallow and that the winds are not cooperating to create up-welling so I have to wonder if we may be looking at a low cap on strength and duration of this La Nina. That is, if in fact we actually do see one for this winter which is starting to look as if it is not a given.

[WEATHER53]

So far cant find any repetitive   analogs.

[snowman19]

On July 30, 2016 at 3:52 AM, showmethesnow said:

At one point late winter/spring weren't they predicting a record breaking or near record breaking event?  I think they also were initially showing this past El Nino to be a near record breaking event as well. Of course my memory is quite often faulty, which my wife is fond of reminding me of, so maybe I am just misremembering. 

I do like the fact that the subsurface cold pool is shallow and that the winds are not cooperating to create up-welling so I have to wonder if we may be looking at a low cap on strength and duration of this La Nina. That is, if in fact we actually do see one for this winter which is starting to look as if it is not a given.

The models are coming into agreement on a weak to low-end moderate Modoki La Niña event. A massive central Pacific trade wind surge is predicted throughout August. Also, for the first time since this Niña event started, region 3.4 hit less than -1.0C on the daily readings last week. If you look at the latest global SSTS, it is a classic Modoki Niña: 

Great explaination of what a La Niña Modoki is: 

- LA NINA MODOKI

Since 2007 a new type of La Niña was discovered from analysis of a Japanese team that have named it La Niña Modoki in Japanese. It is distinguished from the classic La Niña by its specific impact on the global atmospheric circulation. 

Traditionally, the classic La Niña is associated with the cooling in the eastern tropical Pacific (Niño 1+2 et 3). However, during La Niña Modoki the anomaly of the sea surface temperature (SST) in the eastern Pacific isn't affected by cooling but by warming just like western equatorial Pacific, while a cold anomaly affects the central equatorial Pacific (Niño 3.4). These zonal gradients of SST result in an anomaly in circulation of two Walker cells on the tropical Pacific, with a humid region in the Eastern and the Western Pacific. The thermocline doesn't switch the same way as during the classical La Niña because this one raises at the Eastern Equatorial Pacific to sink at the West while during its cousin the thermocline raises at the center of equatorial Pacific Ocean and sinks at each end of the Pacific.

Comparison between the situation of Classic La Niña (a) and La Niña Modoki (b)

During the classic La Niña, the West Coast of the United States is dry but with La Niña Modoki it is rather humid. While during the Classic La Niña there is a significant increase in rainfall over the north and south of Australia, that the Modoki event seems to lead to a large-scale increase in the precipitations in the northwest and North Australia. India also would be affected by more precipitations with this second type of La Niña.

 

[snowman19]

Mike Ventrice on the trade wind surge: https://mobile.twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/758979347147481088 

[Bob Chill]

Despite talk of the upcoming favorable period for strengthening the Nina, I'm not sold on anything more that a weak or weak moderate event so far (possibly even just neutral). The plumes during the spring barrier period didn't come close to verifying where we are at the beginning of July. 

 

Here's the ecmwf May plumes. You can see that the change to a nina isn't happening nearly as fast as first expected. It's really hard for models during the spring so expectations should always be in check until we get into summer:

 

 

The July plumes are backing way off from the idea of consensus for a mod event going into met winter. Virtually all ens members keep the event warmer than -1 in 3.4. We still have a few months to go before we can start to have some confidence but right now things are looking quite tame:

 

 

While the raw temp numbers show some fairly cold water along the eq right now, it's a pretty wimpy pool surrounded by a lot of warmth. 

 

 

 

Compared to the 2 moderate events, the general setup in the Pac isn't nearly as robust at the end of July:

 

2007:

 

 

2010:

 

 

Right now is even less impressive than even the last weak event (I'm not counting on 2011. That was a fading Nina from the previous winter so bad comparison imo)

 

 

 

It just seems that there is just too much warmth in the tropical Pac in general to overcome quickly. We joked around a bit at the get together about a front loaded (or at least cold start) to winter. My gut tells me that this is probably more likely than a warm start. Just a WAG but there I have some logical reasoning behind it. The latest CanSips has an "ok" look for Dec. Not a fan of the WAR showing up but mean ridge out west, trough in the east, and higher heights in the AO/NAO domain space does make some sense. 

 

 

There are 7 cases of Ninos (any strength) to weak or mod Ninas (54/64/83/95/98/07/10). I dropped the 54/64 and pulled Dec composites of the 5 most recent events. Decent look for a BN Dec. Nice EPO/-NAO look for arctic air to invade the upper MW and bleeding eastward. We can dream right?

 

 

 

 

 

And as promised at the GTG, I found our first early Dec threat to track. LOL

 

[mattie g]

That long-range threat might disappear a few times before we get within the Euro wheelhouse, but I'm feeling good and am close to all in.

[mitchnick]

Bob, I agree that it's a bit too early to make a confident prediction on the NINA, but anything from -.3 to -.9 for a trimonthly NINA max seems likely to me at this point.

 

One thing that is a bit of a wild card in my eyes is that predicted warmth off southern CA and Mexico hanging on through the winter. Recall that was there for 13/14 winter and was discussed at length. Whether it had a "measurable" effect is still an unknown (unless someone has some info on it), but that winter sure did rock for a "weakish" NINA. The sun looks to be going "bedy-bye" so hopefully the QBO will cooperate by going negative and quit with the wackiness.

[WinterWxLuvr]

9 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

Despite talk of the upcoming favorable period for strengthening the Nina, I'm not sold on anything more that a weak or weak moderate event so far (possibly even just neutral). The plumes during the spring barrier period didn't come close to verifying where we are at the beginning of July. 

 

Here's the ecmwf May plumes. You can see that the change to a nina isn't happening nearly as fast as first expected. It's really hard for models during the spring so expectations should always be in check until we get into summer:

 

 

The July plumes are backing way off from the idea of consensus for a mod event going into met winter. Virtually all ens members keep the event warmer than -1 in 3.4. We still have a few months to go before we can start to have some confidence but right now things are looking quite tame:

 

 

While the raw temp numbers show some fairly cold water along the eq right now, it's a pretty wimpy pool surrounded by a lot of warmth. 

 

 

 

Compared to the 2 moderate events, the general setup in the Pac isn't nearly as robust at the end of July:

 

2007:

 

 

2010:

 

 

Right now is even less impressive than even the last weak event (I'm not counting on 2011. That was a fading Nina from the previous winter so bad comparison imo)

 

 

 

It just seems that there is just too much warmth in the tropical Pac in general to overcome quickly. We joked around a bit at the get together about a front loaded (or at least cold start) to winter. My gut tells me that this is probably more likely than a warm start. Just a WAG but there I have some logical reasoning behind it. The latest CanSips has an "ok" look for Dec. Not a fan of the WAR showing up but mean ridge out west, trough in the east, and higher heights in the AO/NAO domain space does make some sense. 

 

 

There are 7 cases of Ninos (any strength) to weak or mod Ninas (54/64/83/95/98/07/10). I dropped the 54/64 and pulled Dec composites of the 5 most recent events. Decent look for a BN Dec. Nice EPO/-NAO look for arctic air to invade the upper MW and bleeding eastward. We can dream right?

 

 

 

 

 

And as promised at the GTG, I found our first early Dec threat to track. LOL

 

With the thickness line all the way to the Carolina coast, that would be cold snow.

Im in.

[jnis]

32 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

With the thickness line all the way to the Carolina coast, that would be cold snow.

Im in.

[jnis]

Actually  I was laughing about Winter Wx Lvr's  line "pay more taxes for more snow"...

Nice post Bob Chill!

[showmethesnow]

On 8/1/2016 at 10:52 AM, Bob Chill said:

Despite talk of the upcoming favorable period for strengthening the Nina, I'm not sold on anything more that a weak or weak moderate event so far (possibly even just neutral). The plumes during the spring barrier period didn't come close to verifying where we are at the beginning of July. 

 

Here's the ecmwf May plumes. You can see that the change to a nina isn't happening nearly as fast as first expected. It's really hard for models during the spring so expectations should always be in check until we get into summer:

 

 

 

The July plumes are backing way off from the idea of consensus for a mod event going into met winter. Virtually all ens members keep the event warmer than -1 in 3.4. We still have a few months to go before we can start to have some confidence but right now things are looking quite tame:

 

 

 

While the raw temp numbers show some fairly cold water along the eq right now, it's a pretty wimpy pool surrounded by a lot of warmth. 

 

 

 

Compared to the 2 moderate events, the general setup in the Pac isn't nearly as robust at the end of July:

 

2007:

 

 

 

2010:

 

 

 

Right now is even less impressive than even the last weak event (I'm not counting on 2011. That was a fading Nina from the previous winter so bad comparison imo)

 

 

 

 

It just seems that there is just too much warmth in the tropical Pac in general to overcome quickly. We joked around a bit at the get together about a front loaded (or at least cold start) to winter. My gut tells me that this is probably more likely than a warm start. Just a WAG but there I have some logical reasoning behind it. The latest CanSips has an "ok" look for Dec. Not a fan of the WAR showing up but mean ridge out west, trough in the east, and higher heights in the AO/NAO domain space does make some sense. 

 

 

 

There are 7 cases of Ninos (any strength) to weak or mod Ninas (54/64/83/95/98/07/10). I dropped the 54/64 and pulled Dec composites of the 5 most recent events. Decent look for a BN Dec. Nice EPO/-NAO look for arctic air to invade the upper MW and bleeding eastward. We can dream right?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

And as promised at the GTG, I found our first early Dec threat to track. LOL

 

 

I see that Bob is in training camp mode to fine tune his game for the upcoming season. Nice write-up and am looking forward to his future posts. Here's hoping for a winning season if not a Super Bowl win when it comes to winter weather this year. *If you couldn't tell, following the NFL training camps has my mind geared to football now.  *

[WxUSAF]

Nice post, Bob.  

[mitchnick]

QBO has gone haywire as was mentioned in here earlier this summer. Looks like it switched back to westward (+) after almost touching 0. I hope this is temporary, but we'll have to wait and see. The low solar activity and east, or negative, QBO is usually conducive to a -NAO.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/qbo.u30.index

[Bob Chill]

On 8/3/2016 at 8:15 PM, WxUSAF said:

Nice post, Bob.  

 

Thanks but I kinda left out the fact that all but 1 analog was a crappy snow year. I have low expectations for the seasonal total. But we're on a roll so there's plenty of room for false hope. 

[Bob Chill]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

QBO has gone haywire as was mentioned in here earlier this summer. Looks like it switched back to westward (+) after almost touching 0. I hope this is temporary, but we'll have to wait and see. The low solar activity and east, or negative, QBO is usually conducive to a -NAO.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/qbo.u30.index

 

Just hug the Jamstec. Makes life much more relaxing. Weak nina and a +PDO for the win!