WinterWxLuvr Posted November 16, 2016 Share Posted November 16, 2016 22 hours ago, BTRWx said: November 1995 and 1996 sstas are almost a mirror image... Look quite a bit different to me. North Pacific. East coast of North America. The winters that followed those two Novembers were very different also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 My forecast -- Dec -1 anomaly, one reasonable snowfall event ... most likely timing for that is 23-25 Dec, ho ho ho. Jan -3 anomaly, 2-3 good snowfall events ... if a memorable blizzard this winter, favored timing is 21-25 Jan. Feb cold to start, very mild to end, one reasonable snowfall event before the transition. Warm March, spring early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 Pretty cool site linked in Dr. Cohen's recent discussion: https://www.nsf.gov/news/special_reports/autumnwinter/predicts.jsp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted November 24, 2016 Share Posted November 24, 2016 Looking back at my records from previous winters this evening, and it hit me what a good past decade it's been for snowfall here. In the 10 winters I have measured snowfall since moving to West Virginia, I have averaged 31.2" a season (vs. the long-term average of 26.5" for this area.) In the last 7 winters since Cocorahs came online in WV, my average is 37.8" ! There have been 10 months in those 7 winters with double digit snow totals: 2 Decembers (2009, 2013) 4 Januaries (2011, 2014, 2015, 2016) 3 Februaries (2010, 2014, 2015) 1 March (2015) Every January and February the past seven years has seen accumulating snow in my yard, and so have 5 of 7 Marches, and 4 of 7 Decembers. One October (2011) and one November (2014) have had snow on the ground also. Biggest monthly totals were 51.6" in Feb 2010, 35.6" in January 2016, 26.9" in Dec 2009, and 21.3" in Feb 2014. The last 3 winters have averaged 43.3" imby. I guess I should resolve to not feel bad if we see a below normal snow total this season, given the great run it's been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted November 24, 2016 Share Posted November 24, 2016 I just checked the top-10 driest Autumns vs snowfall in the following winter, since it looks like that is where we are headed. Below normal snowfall. A couple of real duds (under 5" in 30/31 and 01/02) mixed with a couple of 20" seasons. No big ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted November 24, 2016 Share Posted November 24, 2016 8 hours ago, MN Transplant said: I just checked the top-10 driest Autumns vs snowfall in the following winter, since it looks like that is where we are headed. Below normal snowfall. A couple of real duds (under 5" in 30/31 and 01/02) mixed with a couple of 20" seasons. No big ones. Did you happen to check temperatures compared to normal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted November 24, 2016 Share Posted November 24, 2016 The near-term CIPS analog has November 2009 (boom) as the top analog while the longer-range has November 1996 listed first. (bust) I don't think the pattern has situated itself yet for what's to come this winter. There's still too many conflicting signals in my view. http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=EC&fhr=F096&rundt=2016112400 http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=EC&fhr=F120&rundt=2016112400 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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