North Balti Zen Posted October 28, 2016 Share Posted October 28, 2016 testified the other day. Had some strong words about DCA. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/10/27/video-capital-weather-gang-previews-winter-outlook-for-d-c-government/Nice job, Matt.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 28, 2016 Share Posted October 28, 2016 Decent forecast for the winter from Palka Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted October 28, 2016 Share Posted October 28, 2016 Good forecast Matt. I don't spend a lot of time on seasonal because you put in all the work to weight 20 variables and how they will play off each other then one factor changes or an unforeseen variable becomes dominant and the whole thing was a waste of time. I'm not saying seasonal is not valuable and I have much respect for those that do it. Some years it's definitely easier to see a clear signal then others. This is not one of those years. But my from my very limited ability to read the tea leaves I would agree with that forecast. I definitely see way more variables lining up in favor of a cold first 1/2 of winter then warm. I also think some who are expecting a warm or snowless winter are leaning too much on La Niña when I see it as being too weak to exert that much influence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted October 28, 2016 Share Posted October 28, 2016 Also so many of our years snowfall is based on luck. The worst years and best like 2002 or 2010 were going to be good or bad no matter but for the rest getting lucky a couple times is the difference between getting 15" or 30" on the year. No way to predict luck on the specific track of a few synoptic systems from months in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted October 30, 2016 Share Posted October 30, 2016 On 10/27/2016 at 9:47 PM, Deck Pic said: testified the other day. Had some strong words about DCA. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/10/27/video-capital-weather-gang-previews-winter-outlook-for-d-c-government/ Yup, good comments in there. I think most everyone here would take the preliminary DJF monthlies that you posted in here a little while back (-2/-2/+2 temps), with normal to somewhat above normal snow, and gladly call that a winter. Even +2 for February isn't totally awful, if that occurs...doesn't necessarily mean a very early spring, and it would still allow for some cold (and snow) to sneak in here or there. I've perused this thread now and then, and I guess from what several others have said, getting some decent NA blocking will be a big key, of course. Haven't seen the very latest ENSO stuff, but I gather it's still sort of in the weakish Nina territory going by what I read earlier. I'm not expecting another big HECS-level storm this year, but I'd definitely take the opportunity to have more (realistic) events to follow and get a couple or so solid moderate storms along with some cold periods. An early period of cold with snow possibilities in December would be a nice change! We seem to have lost December as a winter month the past few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 31, 2016 Share Posted October 31, 2016 On 10/19/2016 at 8:33 AM, mattie g said: I know that the SAI has taken a beating the last couple years, but it's still interesting to follow. I just posted this in the "And we begin" thread (which is hopping spectacularly, by the way!). Just a talking point: Sorry for all the pictures, but here are the last few days of the month (minus today). The rate of increase wasn't terribly high in the past week, and then yesterday happened. Virtually all of Russia is snow covered right now. With a weak ENSO signal and no index looking like it might overwhelm other indices, you may have to take SAI a little more seriously this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted October 31, 2016 Share Posted October 31, 2016 8 minutes ago, mattie g said: Sorry for all the pictures, but here are the last few days of the month (minus today). The rate of increase wasn't terribly high in the past week, and then yesterday happened. Virtually all of Russia is snow covered right now. With a weak ENSO signal and no index looking like it might overwhelm other indices, you may have to take SAI a little more seriously this year. Snow cover, and the SAI are ending on a high note this last day of October, also of interest is the recent Eastern Canada snowfall , it is above normal at this time. Have to see about the effects of a possible recurving Typhoon in the 6 to 10 period as well as the robust signal for a positive PNA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 31, 2016 Share Posted October 31, 2016 Saw this in the SNE thread: 34 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Euro upgrade coming our way 11/22. I know there has been some angst about its performance recently, but it is still tops. Looks like most changes are fairly cosmetic (better data assimilation, cloud models, some aviation fields etc) but they are updating snowfall output by using radar analysis. Biggest news is the EPS is going down to 0.25 degree and 75 levels. Basically the EPS will be comparable to the GFS op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted October 31, 2016 Share Posted October 31, 2016 I honestly thought that this October's SAI was very good, and ending on a good close . Wonder why Mike feels it is not that impressive to him? Anyone have any feedback on this? I do love Mike's insights, and at least he mentions the Siberian High as a positive, being stronger than average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted November 4, 2016 Share Posted November 4, 2016 On 10/31/2016 at 3:37 PM, frd said: I honestly thought that this October's SAI was very good, and ending on a good close . Wonder why Mike feels it is not that impressive to him? Anyone have any feedback on this? I do love Mike's insights, and at least he mentions the Siberian High as a positive, being stronger than average. It's #3 out of 49 years! What's he smoking! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 7, 2016 Share Posted November 7, 2016 Bob's "eps" count is through the roof. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 8, 2016 Share Posted November 8, 2016 2 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Bob's "eps" count is through the roof. I pay cold hard earned cash for that privilege Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 8, 2016 Share Posted November 8, 2016 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: I pay cold hard earned cash for that privilege Keep it up brother. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 8, 2016 Share Posted November 8, 2016 Apparently the new run of Euro monthlies out today stink for all months but December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 8, 2016 Share Posted November 8, 2016 11 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Apparently the new run of Euro monthlies out today stink for all months but December. Thanks, Damage In Tolland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted November 8, 2016 Share Posted November 8, 2016 I never thought this first map looked very probable. (Note the dates published) La nina tends to give us early cold... Weak la nina ~= continuous forecast nightmares! You have been warned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 8, 2016 Share Posted November 8, 2016 10 minutes ago, mattie g said: Thanks, Damage In Tolland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 8, 2016 Share Posted November 8, 2016 1 hour ago, mitchnick said: Apparently the new run of Euro monthlies out today stink for all months but December. I forgot the weeklies ran yesterday so I just took a look. Eh, not very exciting. Dec looks AN but no ridge/torch or anything like that. The most troubling thing is persistent low pressure/heights in the bering sea. That's not going to help our source region. If that's a dominant feature this winter then the east is going to struggle in general. Who knows though. Taking anything seriously now is pretty silly in either direction. Once we get to Dec we can start really hitting the panic button. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted November 8, 2016 Share Posted November 8, 2016 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I forgot the weeklies ran yesterday so I just took a look. Eh, not very exciting. Dec looks AN but no ridge/torch or anything like that. The most troubling thing is persistent low pressure/heights in the bering sea. That's not going to help our source region. If that's a dominant feature this winter then the east is going to struggle in general. Who knows though. Taking anything seriously now is pretty silly in either direction. Once we get to Dec we can start really hitting the panic button. Let the countdown begin! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 8, 2016 Share Posted November 8, 2016 9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I forgot the weeklies ran yesterday so I just took a look. Eh, not very exciting. Dec looks AN but no ridge/torch or anything like that. The most troubling thing is persistent low pressure/heights in the bering sea. That's not going to help our source region. If that's a dominant feature this winter then the east is going to struggle in general. Who knows though. Taking anything seriously now is pretty silly in either direction. Once we get to Dec we can start really hitting the panic button. We always struggle in Nina's, but this is barely one, so there's still some time for things to change from what the models are seeing now. I note the sub-surface waters temps in the equatorial PAC have really warmed in the past few weeks, which throws us a bone. No matter what the lr models show, however, around here, we can never give up since hope is all we often have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 8, 2016 Share Posted November 8, 2016 50 minutes ago, BTRWx said: I never thought this first map looked very probable. (Note the dates published) La nina tends to give us early cold... Weak la nina ~= continuous forecast nightmares! You have been warned. Yea JB's back end loaded winter forecast makes no sense with a La Niña in place. I don't understand his reasoning behind that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted November 8, 2016 Share Posted November 8, 2016 2 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Yea JB's back end loaded winter forecast makes no sense with a La Niña in place. I don't understand his reasoning behind that Multiple outlets caught on. Man will they be burned! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 8, 2016 Share Posted November 8, 2016 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: We always struggle in Nina's, but this is barely one, so there's still some time for things to change from what the models are seeing now. I note the sub-surface waters temps in the equatorial PAC have really warmed in the past few weeks, which throws us a bone. No matter what the lr models show, however, around here, we can never give up since hope is all we often have. See the TAO/Triton map around half way down at this link for the sub surface map. http://www.stormsurf.com/page2/links/ensocurr.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 8, 2016 Share Posted November 8, 2016 5 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Yea JB's back end loaded winter forecast makes no sense with a La Niña in place. I don't understand his reasoning behind that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted November 8, 2016 Share Posted November 8, 2016 5 minutes ago, mitchnick said: and this "The Farmers’ Almanac, which breaks the country into 7 zones, and offers predictions for three-day intervals, forewarns of a mixed bag of wintry weather for both December and January. But it’s really February when the frigid temperatures take hold (northern tier states could see ambient air temperatures as low as 40 degrees below zero!). This is the month you want to make sure your heat works, your long johns are washed, and your slippers are nearby." http://farmersalmanac.com/weather-outlook/2017-winter-forecast/ When will the media learn that plagiarism is wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted November 8, 2016 Share Posted November 8, 2016 Even Dr. Cohen sounds confused! http://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 8, 2016 Share Posted November 8, 2016 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: Yea JB's back end loaded winter forecast makes no sense with a La Niña in place. I don't understand his reasoning behind that You need look no further back than 13-14. Weak Nina, Jan - March well below normal temps with above normal snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 9, 2016 Share Posted November 9, 2016 23 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: You need look no further back than 13-14. Weak Nina, Jan - March well below normal temps with above normal snow. Exactly. ENSO isn't the only factor driving seasonal temps and precipitation. If it were, then seasonal winter forecasting would be dead simple. I'm not saying he'll be right. I'm just saying that you can't copy and paste ENSO analogs and make that your forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 10, 2016 Share Posted November 10, 2016 JB/Weatherbell has toned down their winter forecast with today's update. can you say average? http://www.weatherbell.com/winter-seasonal-forecast-update?utm_source=Copy+of+Winter+2016-17+Forecast+Oct+(Premium)&utm_campaign=Winter+Forecast+(Premium)&utm_medium=email Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted November 15, 2016 Share Posted November 15, 2016 November 1995 and 1996 sstas are almost a mirror image... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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