Winter 2016-2017 Speculation and Discussion

[Bob Chill]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

As I mentioned above, so do the Euro weeklies.

Yep. I'll be grabbing wxbell next week so I can waste more time with this silly hobby. lol. 

It's pretty much a lock that the SAI will come in strongly favoring a -AO on the means this winter. Could end up being a record Oct too. If it fails this time then the hard drive holding the code for the model should be formatted. 

[Bob Chill]

The last time DC had 4+ winters with above climo snow in a row was in the 60's. It was actually 6 in a row from 62-63 through 67-68. IAD had 5 in a row in the 60's and Baltimore hasn't had 4 in a row since the early 40's. Considering the obvious change in climo since the 60's it would be VERY impressive to hit a 4th in a row this winter at the airports.  

While it would be impressive to hit 4 in a row I don't really see it as meaningful. IMHO- it's more of a byproduct of chaos. Our snow luck is more random than typical unlike areas further north and west. 

Sure would be nice to string the 4th because our next chance at doing it may be longer than I'm alive. 

[mitchnick]

3 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

Yep. I'll be grabbing wxbell next week so I can waste more time with this silly hobby. lol. 

It's pretty much a lock that the SAI will come in strongly favoring a -AO on the means this winter. Could end up being a record Oct too. If it fails this time then the hard drive holding the code for the model should be formatted. 

Next week, ehh....2 bucks says the Euro ensembles will show measurable snow for our area when you sign up!  lol

[mattie g]

55 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

The last time DC had 4+ winters with above climo snow in a row was in the 60's. It was actually 6 in a row from 62-63 through 67-68. IAD had 5 in a row in the 60's and Baltimore hasn't had 4 in a row since the early 40's. Considering the obvious change in climo since the 60's it would be VERY impressive to hit a 4th in a row this winter at the airports.  

While it would be impressive to hit 4 in a row I don't really see it as meaningful. IMHO- it's more of a byproduct of chaos. Our snow luck is more random than typical unlike areas further north and west. 

Sure would be nice to string the 4th because our next chance at doing it may be longer than I'm alive. 

I agree that it's not terribly meaningful (other than the simple enjoyment aspect of it!). Statistically speaking, it's very difficult for us to have that kind of a stretch with above-climo snowfall, but when taken as a year-to-year view, any one year has the same chance to go above or below as any other year in the data set. It's the atmospheric state/indices that set us up for success or failure, and a statistic like "x years in a row of above-normal snowfall" doesn't take that into account.

[Bob Chill]

30 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I like the pic change.

After getting snow up here on Saturday, I'm ready for winter. I think we have a good shot of a four-peat, but I think we're more likely to nickel and dime our way to get there this year.

Almost time to crawl back to wxbell.

A lot of our below climo winters have enough near misses where things could have gone the other way. 13-14 and 14-15 were awesome because we had so many chances and the majority delivered. Especially 13-14. The oddest part of the those years was having solid accums in March. IAD cracked 10" back to back for the first time ever. And some of those events weren't typical wake up and watch it melt. They were cold mid-winter powder. 

I have a strong hunch that we won't have a fab Feb and March will be minor at best. To break climo we'll need to close out Jan either above or pretty close. Just a total guess but it makes the most sense in my mind. I can't stop thinking that we have an above normal chance at a pretty good storm in Dec for all of us. 

 

4 minutes ago, mattie g said:

I agree that it's not terribly meaningful (other than the simple enjoyment aspect of it!). Statistically speaking, it's very difficult for us to have that kind of a stretch with above-climo snowfall, but when taken as a year-to-year view, any one year has the same chance to go above or below as any other year in the data set. It's the atmospheric state/indices that set us up for success or failure, and a statistic like "x years in a row of above-normal snowfall" doesn't take that into account.

Agreed. Snowfall is fickle here. Our region gets some monsters on a fairly regular basis through time so you always have that lurking in the back of your mind. But we also have a knack for sitting just on the outside looking in. 

The stretch from 03-04 through 05-06 could have all been above normal. All 3 airports were really just 1 event away and we missed out on some really good setups. Especially 04-05 IIRC. That stretch could have been 4 in a row for sure but it just goes to show how touchy our latitude can be. 

I'd honestly be pretty happy with hitting 15-20" from Dec-Jan with winter temps dominating the period and then winter cancel. I absolutely hate tossing December completely and praying for back loaded. Even when it produces like 14-15, chasing for the first 6 weeks takes a lot of fun out of our short window. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

32 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

A lot of our below climo winters have enough near misses where things could have gone the other way. 13-14 and 14-15 were awesome because we had so many chances and the majority delivered. Especially 13-14. The oddest part of the those years was having solid accums in March. IAD cracked 10" back to back for the first time ever. And some of those events weren't typical wake up and watch it melt. They were cold mid-winter powder. 

I have a strong hunch that we won't have a fab Feb and March will be minor at best. To break climo we'll need to close out Jan either above or pretty close. Just a total guess but it makes the most sense in my mind. I can't stop thinking that we have an above normal chance at a pretty good storm in Dec for all of us. 

 

Agreed. Snowfall is fickle here. Our region gets some monsters on a fairly regular basis through time so you always have that lurking in the back of your mind. But we also have a knack for sitting just on the outside looking in. 

The stretch from 03-04 through 05-06 could have all been above normal. All 3 airports were really just 1 event away and we missed out on some really good setups. Especially 04-05 IIRC. That stretch could have been 4 in a row for sure but it just goes to show how touchy our latitude can be. 

I'd honestly be pretty happy with hitting 15-20" from Dec-Jan with winter temps dominating the period and then winter cancel. I absolutely hate tossing December completely and praying for back loaded. Even when it produces like 14-15, chasing for the first 6 weeks takes a lot of fun out of our short window. 

Bingo.

[WxUSAF]

Another winter outlook that is BN temps and near normal-slightly AN snow.  Seems similar to Zwyts' early look. 

 

[nw baltimore wx]

42 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Another winter outlook that is BN temps and near normal-slightly AN snow.  Seems similar to Zwyts' early look. 

Man, that's a good read! I'd love an early cold winter for the holidays. 

[mfastx]

9 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

The last time DC had 4+ winters with above climo snow in a row was in the 60's. It was actually 6 in a row from 62-63 through 67-68. IAD had 5 in a row in the 60's and Baltimore hasn't had 4 in a row since the early 40's. Considering the obvious change in climo since the 60's it would be VERY impressive to hit a 4th in a row this winter at the airports.  

While it would be impressive to hit 4 in a row I don't really see it as meaningful. IMHO- it's more of a byproduct of chaos. Our snow luck is more random than typical unlike areas further north and west. 

Sure would be nice to string the 4th because our next chance at doing it may be longer than I'm alive. 

Out of curiosity, what was climo for this area in the '60s?  

[mattie g]

15 hours ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Man, that's a good read! I'd love an early cold winter for the holidays. 

Yeah...good read just from the writing/ease of comprehension perspective.

Cold for Christmastime would be money, especially if we have a shot at some white flying in the run up. Thanksgiving? I don't mind having the windows wide open!

[EastCoast NPZ]

On 10/24/2016 at 9:52 AM, PhineasC said:

Please just no 70 degree Thanksgiving.

Or Christmas.

[Bob Chill]

Still a little early to get excited for this threat but once we get under 1,000 hours someone can start a thread

[Bob Chill]

I'm hoping once the vort gets onshore the models will speed this up a day. The WD index is high for a white christmas. 

 

[midatlanticweather]

Thank you Bob for confirming the high number of deer, squirrels, and wooly bear predictions! Not that I really "believe" the folklore, but the populations of each of these is yuge this year! You would think it would be a bigly winter based on this alone! 

[mitchnick]

2 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

Still a little early to get excited for this threat but once we get under 1,000 hours someone can start a thread

 

2 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

I'm hoping once the vort gets onshore the models will speed this up a day. The WD index is high for a white christmas. 

 

Look at the dates....very 12/02'ish!  

[GramaxRefugee]

On ‎10‎/‎24‎/‎2016 at 1:24 PM, Bob Chill said:

...Baltimore hasn't had 4 in a row since the early 40's. Considering the obvious change in climo since the 60's it would be VERY impressive to hit a 4th in a row this winter at the airports.  

I believe we only need 32" this season to have the highest avg for any of those 4 year periods. I'm using Balto. (Neither DC site is acceptable for long term snow climo)

Additional....

Avg for 2013-15 is 34.3".

Highest 4 in a row is 1932-35 at 33.75"

Total 4 in a rows are: 1908-11; 1932-36; 1939-43 (3 total, with the last 2 being actually 5 in a row)

This doesn't address the little issue of the average (20.1 per NOAA) not quite being average over the whole period. But that's not too bad.

[mattie g]

15 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

Still a little early to get excited for this threat but once we get under 1,000 hours someone can start a thread

 

I'll be in South Carolina that week. Typical!

 

15 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

I'm hoping once the vort gets onshore the models will speed this up a day. The WD index is high for a white christmas. 

 

I think we can speed this up, but that High needs to speed up along with it or else it's going to roast given the GL low.

[nw baltimore wx]

2 hours ago, mattie g said:

I'll be in South Carolina that week. Typical!

Didn't we do this last year, Woody?

[mattie g]

44 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Didn't we do this last year, Woody?

Haha. If we're thinking of the blizzard, I was in Newport Beach.

I do recall being down there for one really cold powder event a few years ago (late January 2014?). I was disappointed, but if I recall that ushered in our late-season cold, snowy period, so it didn't feel like I missed out too badly.

[Bob Chill]

On 10/24/2016 at 10:39 PM, mfastx said:

Out of curiosity, what was climo for this area in the '60s?  

I missed this post. The 60's were an exceptionally snowy and cold period for our area. I used a bad choice of words by saying "since the 60's". It's more since the mid 80's but the 60's and 70's marked the end of bitter protracted cold in the mid atlantic. . Since our latitude is often on the fringe with temps during winter events, the general warming we've had since the 60's makes it harder to snow in general. The huge increase in UHI doesn't help the airports either.  Some of that is being offset by a larger frequency of bigger storms but overall in general our winters are milder now than 30 years ago. It doesn't rule out cold ones like 13-14 but the frequency of below normal DJF has declined significantly since the 70's. 

Using the 1950-95 climo, the decade was -2 for DJF in the MA. You can take another degree or 2 off using the 1981-2010 climo

Snowfall in DC:

 

 

Temps using 1950-95 climo:

The reasons are hotly debated and not a good place to discuss here. 

[mattie g]

19 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I missed this post. The 60's were an exceptionally snowy and cold period for our area. I used a bad choice of words by saying "since the 60's". It's more since the mid 80's but the 60's and 70's marked the end of bitter protracted cold in the mid atlantic. . Since our latitude is often on the fringe with temps during winter events, the general warming we've had since the 60's makes it harder to snow in general. The huge increase in UHI doesn't help the airports either.  Some of that is being offset by a larger frequency of bigger storms but overall in general our winters are milder now than 30 years ago. It doesn't rule out cold ones like 13-14 but the frequency of below normal DJF has declined significantly since the 70's. 

Using the 1950-95 climo, the decade was -2 for DJF in the MA. You can take another degree or 2 off using the 1981-2010 climo

Snowfall in DC:

 

 

Temps using 1950-95 climo:

The reasons are hotly debated and not a good place to discuss here. 

Where's Tenman when you need him?

[BTRWx]

How long do you all think it would take for this to impact us?

 

[Bob Chill]

^ It doesn't mean much at this stage in the game at all. The strat pv will almost surely consolidate again. 

 

In the longer term picture it's good to see that the strat PV is having a hard time becoming strong. That in general will favor higher chances blocking in the the high latitudes this winter. The AO has already been negative since the beginning of Oct and is forecast to stay that way for the next 2 weeks and probably beyond.

There's a natural barrier between the strat and trop most of the time. There's always chatter about SSWs in the winter propagating into the trop though. That can have significant impacts when they occur. But we don't need one to have favorable heights in the arctic. We mostly just don't want a big consolidated beast spinning around the strat the entire winter. We seem to be off to a good start but it's pretty early.  

 

The effects of a -ao/nao are most profound starting in mid-late Nov through winter. In October even with blocking it's uncommon for the polar jet to consistently punch this far south. That changes with the seasons as the wavelengths shorten. 

[BTRWx]

16 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

^ It doesn't mean much at this stage in the game at all. The strat pv will almost surely consolidate again. 

 

In the longer term picture it's good to see that the strat PV is having a hard time becoming strong. That in general will favor higher chances blocking in the the high latitudes this winter. The AO has already been negative since the beginning of Oct and is forecast to stay that way for the next 2 weeks and probably beyond.

There's a natural barrier between the strat and trop most of the time. There's always chatter about SSWs in the winter propagating into the trop though. That can have significant impacts when they occur. But we don't need one to have favorable heights in the arctic. We mostly just don't want a big consolidated beast spinning around the strat the entire winter. We seem to be off to a good start but it's pretty early.  

 

The effects of a -ao/nao are most profound starting in mid-late Nov through winter. In October even with blocking it's uncommon for the polar jet to consistently punch this far south. That changes with the seasons as the wavelengths shorten. 

Thanks for the explanation! Didn't that happen during one of the cooler summer patterns we had a couple years ago (plus or minus)?

[mfastx]

3 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

I missed this post. The 60's were an exceptionally snowy and cold period for our area. I used a bad choice of words by saying "since the 60's". It's more since the mid 80's but the 60's and 70's marked the end of bitter protracted cold in the mid atlantic. . Since our latitude is often on the fringe with temps during winter events, the general warming we've had since the 60's makes it harder to snow in general. The huge increase in UHI doesn't help the airports either.  Some of that is being offset by a larger frequency of bigger storms but overall in general our winters are milder now than 30 years ago. It doesn't rule out cold ones like 13-14 but the frequency of below normal DJF has declined significantly since the 70's. 

Using the 1950-95 climo, the decade was -2 for DJF in the MA. You can take another degree or 2 off using the 1981-2010 climo

Snowfall in DC:

 image

Temps using 1950-95 climo:

image

The reasons are hotly debated and not a good place to discuss here. 

Thanks for the info, I'm a total n00b with respect to meteorological history and have only been here a year, so much appreciated.  

[WinterWxLuvr]

Bob, you're getting Mitch excited with those CFS maps.

[WinterWxLuvr]

I went ahead and created our first seasonal med/long range thread.  Hopefully you guys will transition over to that one.

[mitchnick]

3 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I went ahead and created our first seasonal med/long range thread.  Hopefully you guys will transition over to that one.

Only if you promise to post cfs maps. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

19 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Only if you promise to post cfs maps. 

That honor is reserved for you my friend.

[Deck Pic]

testified the other day.  Had some strong words about DCA.  

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/10/27/video-capital-weather-gang-previews-winter-outlook-for-d-c-government/