Winter 2016-2017 Speculation and Discussion

[midatlanticweather]

ZMy head was all in the sand when this was issued.. I may have missed the discussion. LA NINA WATCH - =(

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf

 

 

[showmethesnow]

12 hours ago, midatlanticweather said:

ZMy head was all in the sand when this was issued.. I may have missed the discussion. LA NINA WATCH - =(

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf

 

 

These are 1981 to present La Nina snowfall totals for DC and Baltimore from http://www.weather.gov/lwx/research_dcbalt_lanina. And a scatter plot of Enso and NAO state from http://www.weather.gov/lwx/ENSONAO_vs_Local_Winter_Snowfall. 

 

There are other factors to consider but to keep it simple lets just look at the correlation between Enso and the NAO. As you can see if we are dealing with a neutral to a weak Nina ENSO state we need the NAO to cooperate (neutral to a -NAO) or we are most likely SOL which is normally the case anyway. I will be keeping my eyes on the AO and the NAO in the coming month or two hoping for the best. Or we can just hang our hats on the winter of 95-96 which I am sure will pop up on many winter forecasts from those that always predict snowy winters.

 

[Lowershoresadness]

Bob Chill:  Which has a greater chance this winter, Terps Basketball wins vs DC inches of snow?????

[uncle W]

On 10/10/2016 at 5:51 PM, Lowershoresadness said:

has the region ever had a year of bn temps for Nov,Dec,Jan and Feb

1962-63 was well below average from Nov thru Feb...March warmed up...

[Bob Chill]

13 hours ago, Lowershoresadness said:

Bob Chill:  Which has a greater chance this winter, Terps Basketball wins vs DC inches of snow?????

I'd go with the terps. Losing stone is a bummer and no layman or suilamon. But cowan, jackson, huerter recruits are pretty promising.  I'll go with a minimum of 18-19 wins with upside. DC could top that but I'll take the better odds with the terps. 

I've been gathering some winter thoughts but am still more pessimistic than optimistic on snow totals. Temps on the other hand...my guess is Dec-Jan end up near or below normal. No +5's but just a wag. 

Starting to get the feel that blocking is going to make a comback.  It's still early but the strat pv isn't looking like a beast. The next few weeks should feature a lot of higher trop heights in the Arctic. 

 

Even if we get the temps and some blocking, storm tracks could be a PITA. Cold enso favors less snow in general. Dec-Jan of 10-11 had plenty of blocking and cold but we got screwed pretty solid until late Jan but even that storm was pretty flawed. 10-11 isn't the worst analog in the world even though the current nina is weak at best. 

 

I'm already mentally ready for a few skip overs that stick Philly northward. You could do well with those though. Nickel and dimers could dominate our snow chances but just a guess of course. 

[BTRWx]

On 10/10/2016 at 9:04 PM, WinterWxLuvr said:

We need a over under contest for the upcoming winter.

How many times will:

WinterWxLuvr say "there are a lot of ensemble members that have a good signal for a storm"

Yoda copy and paste an AFD or warnings.

Bob say "eps"

Ian say "meh"

Eastcoast say "**** this place"

Wes post CWG links

Tenman complain about DCA temps

Yeoman call Tenman "teninch"

Mitch post the CFS

Ji post the euro control

MG say "Cobb output"

C.A.P.E says "blocking" or "nao"

Matt talks about something to do with the Pacific that I don't understand at all but agree with

The number of times WxUSA baits Ravensrule into a sexually laced quip

The number of times somebody says "jb"

The number of times somebody links DT's "pre first guess map"

Clskinsfan say "I-81 is crushed"

If I left any out, please add

Additions:

Randy says "stop posting"

wxdude tells us it's snowing on some mile high peak in Highland county

Psuhoffman worries himself silly about being fringed and ends up with more snow than anybody

Phin calls out Psuhoffman for his worrying or tells somebody in Charlottesville that they're crazy for thinking they will get snow

Hizenberg comes in to tell us all is not lost even though we all know it is

Ravens 94 says tells us the ocean will get crushed with a late hooking storm

DTK comes in and just crushes the life out of someone questioning the models

BTRWx says "we need better moderation"

[BTRWx]

The latest ecm run makes me want to look to the 2011 snowtober as far as pattern guidance, but the sstas aren't anything like then. 

[Bob Chill]

Probably the only real time observation that is a positive for winter in the east is the resurgence of the +PDO. Quite a big change in the west pac over the last 30 days. If are midway through November and the pdo is firmly in positive territory then that could help bring early winter to the east.  

 

Mid Sept:

 

 

Current:

 

 

[frd]

Latest guidance shows  positive developments for snow coverage and advance over in Siberia. After a stall with snow cover the last week, the coverage and advance looks to be very rapid the next 7 to 10 days.  Need to see how the very end of the month holds out, but right now it looks very favorable.

 

 

. 

 

 

[Jebman]

Masiello is correct. This is going to be a downright warm winter. This is an excellent time to join the Warmanista Liberation Front of Eastern North America, lol

 

In the West, the pacific northwest will be battered by severe storm after severe storm for the next nine months. This usually results in warm weather for the mid atlantic. Note that even now, the Pac Northwest is getting annihilated severe high winds and rains and the north Rockies are drowning in snows. This will happen well into June 2017. The northern Rockies are going to get so much snow that ski resorts up there will operate RIGHT THRU SUMMER 2017!!! They are about to get a 1 million year winter.

We will set high temperature records this week, and also high low temperature records this week. Highs in Dale City will reach the upper 80s with lows near 72. Dewpoints will hit the upper 60s. This is a good preview of the the pattern for November, December, January. Feb will be cooler, then March 2017 and on will be much above normal. The Spring and Summer of 2017 will be much drier than in 2016 in the mid atlantic.

[WEATHERBUFF]

21 hours ago, Jebman said:

Masiello is correct. This is going to be a downright warm winter. This is an excellent time to join the Warmanista Liberation Front of Eastern North America, lol

 

In the West, the pacific northwest will be battered by severe storm after severe storm for the next nine months. This usually results in warm weather for the mid atlantic. Note that even now, the Pac Northwest is getting annihilated severe high winds and rains and the north Rockies are drowning in snows. This will happen well into June 2017. The northern Rockies are going to get so much snow that ski resorts up there will operate RIGHT THRU SUMMER 2017!!! They are about to get a 1 million year winter.

We will set high temperature records this week, and also high low temperature records this week. Highs in Dale City will reach the upper 80s with lows near 72. Dewpoints will hit the upper 60s. This is a good preview of the the pattern for November, December, January. Feb will be cooler, then March 2017 and on will be much above normal. The Spring and Summer of 2017 will be much drier than in 2016 in the mid atlantic.

I do believe we are in a permanent state of above normal temps for 1981-2010 averages and I think 2 or 3 above that is the new normal. I do think places south of NYC will especially be above average this winter and snowfall will be below average unless there is perfect timing, however the factors you mention does not mean a mild winter.

[WhiteoutMD]

I'm told that the ECMWF Seasonal Model came out with an update does anyone know what it shows for the U.S.?

[stadiumwave]

On 10/16/2016 at 1:23 AM, Jebman said:

Masiello is correct. This is going to be a downright warm winter. This is an excellent time to join the Warmanista Liberation Front of Eastern North America, lol

 

In the West, the pacific northwest will be battered by severe storm after severe storm for the next nine months. This usually results in warm weather for the mid atlantic. Note that even now, the Pac Northwest is getting annihilated severe high winds and rains and the north Rockies are drowning in snows. This will happen well into June 2017. The northern Rockies are going to get so much snow that ski resorts up there will operate RIGHT THRU SUMMER 2017!!! They are about to get a 1 million year winter.

We will set high temperature records this week, and also high low temperature records this week. Highs in Dale City will reach the upper 80s with lows near 72. Dewpoints will hit the upper 60s. This is a good preview of the the pattern for November, December, January. Feb will be cooler, then March 2017 and on will be much above normal. The Spring and Summer of 2017 will be much drier than in 2016 in the mid atlantic.

 

 

Are you referring to Anthony Masiello? If so, when has he said that. Certainly not what he coveyed to me.

[frd]

It appears the AO is set for another well agreed upon drop to almost minus 3 , if so this would mark the second time this month with a drop to - 3 on the charts. 

Fascinating is the continued presence of the Scandinavian block and even hints over time that it retrogrades towards Iceland.

There are no signs at this time that the PV is going to become very intense , actually there are hints of subtle warming to take place.

Maybe after the AO being generally positive for many months   since June I believe, maybe it was Mat, we may be in the stages of a multi month cycle of overall negative AO dips.

With the AO  in negative territory for the end of the month I see very positive signs for snow growth and advance.  

  

  

 

[NJwinter23]

On 10/16/2016 at 2:23 AM, Jebman said:

Masiello is correct. This is going to be a downright warm winter. This is an excellent time to join the Warmanista Liberation Front of Eastern North America, lol

 

In the West, the pacific northwest will be battered by severe storm after severe storm for the next nine months. This usually results in warm weather for the mid atlantic. Note that even now, the Pac Northwest is getting annihilated severe high winds and rains and the north Rockies are drowning in snows. This will happen well into June 2017. The northern Rockies are going to get so much snow that ski resorts up there will operate RIGHT THRU SUMMER 2017!!! They are about to get a 1 million year winter.

We will set high temperature records this week, and also high low temperature records this week. Highs in Dale City will reach the upper 80s with lows near 72. Dewpoints will hit the upper 60s. This is a good preview of the the pattern for November, December, January. Feb will be cooler, then March 2017 and on will be much above normal. The Spring and Summer of 2017 will be much drier than in 2016 in the mid atlantic.

Where on earth are you getting these words to put in HM's mouth? He has made literally 0 forecasts for the winter, he's been bogged down by his new job title and barely has the time to even check this stuff. This is the 2nd forum where I read someone claiming he is predicting a mild winter. It's not fair to put word's in someone's mouth and not even site it.

[NJwinter23]

40 minutes ago, NJwinter23 said:

Where on earth are you getting these words to put in HM's mouth? He has made literally 0 forecasts for the winter, he's been bogged down by his new job title and barely has the time to even check this stuff. This is the 2nd forum where I read someone claiming he is predicting a mild winter. It's not fair to put word's in someone's mouth and not even site it.

It appears maybe the mix-up was in realation to this tweet of his? 

https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/780113401381019648

He was referring to the UK/Europe! Not the U.S.

[mitchnick]

On 10/17/2016 at 11:41 AM, WhiteoutMD said:

I'm told that the ECMWF Seasonal Model came out with an update does anyone know what it shows for the U.S.?

The Eurosip model(s) came out yesterday. It was pretty good last year as it is actually several models. I'll give the short version. Looks like normal temps and normal precip using the limited maps they have on the free site. Below are DJF temps, precip, and SSTA for the period. Looks like the Eurosips think the recent spike in 3.4 will continue throughout the cold season (sorry snowman19)

NOTE: you need to make sure the link takes you to the Feb 2017 on the bar below the map to come up with the forecast period of DJF

http://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts/seasonal/2m-temperature-public-charts-long-range-forecast?time=2016100100,3600,2017022800&area=South America&forecast_type_and_skill_measures=tercile summary

http://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts/seasonal/rain-public-charts-long-range-forecast?time=2016100100,3600,2017022800&area=South America&forecast_type_and_skill_measures=tercile summary

http://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts/seasonal/sea-surface-temperature-public-charts-long-range-forecast?time=2016100100,3600,2017022800

 

ENSO 3.4 plumes:

http://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts/seasonal/nino-plumes-public-charts-long-range-forecast?time=2016100100,0,2016100100&nino_area=3.4&forecast_type_and_skill_measure=plumes

 

[WinterWxLuvr]

6 hours ago, SimeonNC said:

Very positive signs for the entire East Coast, this is the reason why I doubt this winter is gonna be worse than last year. (Don't mind the southerner here.)

Take away the big January storm from last year and you probably have a good picture of just about the worst winter we could get.

Im feeling pretty good heading into this one.

[Jebman]

14 hours ago, NJwinter23 said:

It appears maybe the mix-up was in realation to this tweet of his? 

https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/780113401381019648

He was referring to the UK/Europe! Not the U.S.

An apology from me is in order.

I apologize for citing Masiello as saying the United States would have a mild winter. As has been stated above, he has not made a winter forecast for the US  concerning the 2016-2017 Winter.

[frd]

Some very very good signs showing up regarding the early start to winter .

Another huge drop in the AO. 

Even some heat fluxes and affects on the PV, it is early for that I believe

 

The blocking near Scandinavia, as I spoke about yesterday.

 

 

 

 

[mattie g]

^ Blocktober

[mattie g]

I know that the SAI has taken a beating the last couple years, but it's still interesting to follow. I just posted this in the "And we begin" thread (which is hopping spectacularly, by the way!). Just a talking point:

Just now, mattie g said:

Just to keep this thread on track...even if the interest in SAI has severely diminished in the last couple years:

October 14:

October 15:

October 16:

October 17:

October 18:

Quite impressive gains in the last couple days - both north and south of 60N - with the potential for between now and the end of the month.

[mitchnick]

Nice post Mattie. I wonder if the SAI would be better if snow depth was taken into consideration. With a fluke storm that throws down a light coating, it will get reported the same as 6", or more. That light coating may not necessarily be representative of the pattern which precedes decent winters here. OTOH, there's no doubt that the AO has tanked this month. I don't think that hurts our location, and may bode very well. We'll have to wait longer into the fall to see. 

[mappy]

18 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Take away the big January storm from last year and you probably have a good picture of just about the worst winter we could get.

Im feeling pretty good heading into this one.

oh yeah. last year would have been brutal without the Jan blizzard. 

[Bob Chill]

25 minutes ago, mappy said:

oh yeah. last year would have been brutal without the Jan blizzard. 

Taking away 1 storm from a lot of winters over history would result in a lot of crap seasons near the cities. Probably not the same in wnwxlvr land but around here single storms are usually very important to switch a total bust to a decent season.  Jan 10, Feb 06, Jan 00, etc made up the vast majority of annual snowfall. Even though 06-07 kinda sucked the Vday sleetfest and glacier made it a memorable season.  Many seasons don't have a single good storm. 

I think I've finally crossed over to the side that would prefer one big storm to break climo vs nickel and diming the way there. The run from 2013-15 was incredible for # of events and seasonal totals. Of course I would prefer those seasons every year but that's not reality. I'm not looking forward to the next complete failure reality check. It's probably not far in the future either. 

[mappy]

if i could take a repeat of 13/14 every year, id be happy

[WinterWxLuvr]

2 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

Taking away 1 storm from a lot of winters over history would result in a lot of crap seasons near the cities. Probably not the same in wnwxlvr land but around here single storms are usually very important to switch a total bust to a decent season.  Jan 10, Feb 06, Jan 00, etc made up the vast majority of annual snowfall. Even though 06-07 kinda sucked the Vday sleetfest and glacier made it a memorable season.  Many seasons don't have a single good storm. 

I think I've finally crossed over to the side that would prefer one big storm to break climo vs nickel and diming the way there. The run from 2013-15 was incredible for # of events and seasonal totals. Of course I would prefer those seasons every year but that's not reality. I'm not looking forward to the next complete failure reality check. It's probably not far in the future either. 

I think you meant January of 2011?

And allow me to add, 2010-2011 was a much better winter than last year.  We missed by an eyelash on several occasions.  It could have easily been a memorable winter. 

[Bob Chill]

7 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I think you meant January of 2011?

And allow me to add, 2010-2011 was a much better winter than last year.  We missed by an eyelash on several occasions.  It could have easily been a memorable winter. 

Yea, typo. Jan 2011.  I don't share the same sentiment at all with 10-11 being better. 10-11 sucked in my yard. Total gut punch boxing day followed up by a drip fest slush bomb with mud underneath in Jan and it was over after that. A 30" blizzard destroys anything 10-11 served up. 

[BTRWx]

We may get the cold, but precip is another story still unknown, kind of. https://www.nsf.gov/news/special_reports/autumnwinter/predicts.jsp

[WinterWxLuvr]

31 minutes ago, BTRWx said:

We may get the cold, but precip is another story still unknown, kind of. https://www.nsf.gov/news/special_reports/autumnwinter/predicts.jsp

Oh don't get me started on that one.