showmethesnow Posted October 9, 2016 Share Posted October 9, 2016 52 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Much better look then what we had only a couple of days ago. The other months have improved quite a bit as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 9, 2016 Share Posted October 9, 2016 13 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Much better look then what we had only a couple of days ago. The other months have improved quite a bit as well. Yes it sure is and given what the Euro monthlies are now advertising, things are looking promising at this juncture. Good to see the CFS has moved in that direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted October 10, 2016 Share Posted October 10, 2016 Big time drop in the AO , and it is extending further out in time over the past couple days, while snow cover continues to advance and central Canada goes below normal cold. Implications for November possibly. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.shtml https://weather.gc.ca/data/ensemble/images/tenday.gif https://weather.gc.ca/data/ensemble/images/tenday.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 10, 2016 Share Posted October 10, 2016 LOL at CFS. Look at the CFS for about 2 weeks and it will usually show you what you want to see..............no matter what kind of weather you want to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 10, 2016 Share Posted October 10, 2016 1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said: LOL at CFS. Look at the CFS for about 2 weeks and it will usually show you what you want to see..............no matter what kind of weather you want to see. 2 weeks? You can find it every single day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 10, 2016 Share Posted October 10, 2016 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: 2 weeks? You can find it every single day! In Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 10, 2016 Share Posted October 10, 2016 On 9/18/2016 at 9:34 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: We need a over under contest for the upcoming winter. How many times will: WinterWxLuvr say "there are a lot of ensemble members that have a good signal for a storm" Yoda copy and paste an AFD or warnings. Bob say "eps" Ian say "meh" Eastcoast say "**** this place" Wes post CWG links Tenman complain about DCA temps Yeoman call Tenman "teninch" Mitch post the CFS Ji post the euro control MG say "Cobb output" C.A.P.E says "blocking" or "nao" Matt talks about something to do with the Pacific that I don't understand at all but agree with The number of times WxUSA baits Ravensrule into a sexually laced quip The number of times somebody says "jb" The number of times somebody links DT's "pre first guess map" Clskinsfan say "I-81 is crushed" If I left any out, please add Dont hate on the Cobb output Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 10, 2016 Share Posted October 10, 2016 2 minutes ago, mattie g said: In There's some good overrunning before this panel too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 10, 2016 Share Posted October 10, 2016 2 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: LOL at CFS. Look at the CFS for about 2 weeks and it will usually show you what you want to see..............no matter what kind of weather you want to see. But I only post maps when is has a -NAO. You know, Blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 10, 2016 Share Posted October 10, 2016 30 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: There's some good overrunning before this panel too. Best part is we have a 1007 High in Canada and a low over the northern Great Lakes...la-la-la lock me up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 10, 2016 Share Posted October 10, 2016 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: There's some good overrunning before this panel too. Torch in the mid levels. Out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 10, 2016 Share Posted October 10, 2016 3 hours ago, mappy said: Dont hate on the Cobb output 3 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said: But I only post maps when is has a -NAO. You know, Blocking. We are off and running!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 10, 2016 Share Posted October 10, 2016 8 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: We are off and running!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted October 10, 2016 Share Posted October 10, 2016 I posted in the other winter thread (KA) that I foresee a good winter for your region, in particular late January. As to comments you can expect to see ... don't know who might say these but ... "I thought it would be snowing here by now." "If we can get these mid-30s dewpoints to fall just a bit ..." "Woohoo, 264 hour Korean shows me jackpotting." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowershoresadness Posted October 10, 2016 Share Posted October 10, 2016 has the region ever had a year of bn temps for Nov,Dec,Jan and Feb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted October 10, 2016 Share Posted October 10, 2016 I believe 1976-77 was. Although an abrupt warm-up the last half of February may have that in question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 11, 2016 Share Posted October 11, 2016 We need a over under contest for the upcoming winter. How many times will: WinterWxLuvr say "there are a lot of ensemble members that have a good signal for a storm" Yoda copy and paste an AFD or warnings. Bob say "eps" Ian say "meh" Eastcoast say "**** this place" Wes post CWG links Tenman complain about DCA temps Yeoman call Tenman "teninch" Mitch post the CFS Ji post the euro control MG say "Cobb output" C.A.P.E says "blocking" or "nao" Matt talks about something to do with the Pacific that I don't understand at all but agree with The number of times WxUSA baits Ravensrule into a sexually laced quip The number of times somebody says "jb" The number of times somebody links DT's "pre first guess map" Clskinsfan say "I-81 is crushed" If I left any out, please add Additions: Randy says "stop posting" wxdude tells us it's snowing on some mile high peak in Highland county Psuhoffman worries himself silly about being fringed and ends up with more snow than anybody Phin calls out Psuhoffman for his worrying or tells somebody in Charlottesville that they're crazy for thinking they will get snow Hizenberg comes in to tell us all is not lost even though we all know it is Ravens 94 says tells us the ocean will get crushed with a late hooking storm DTK comes in and just crushes the life out of someone questioning the models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted October 11, 2016 Share Posted October 11, 2016 Cras and climo should be attributed to someone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted October 11, 2016 Share Posted October 11, 2016 Snow cover is expected to really expand in coverage over Siberia as a large storm system delivers cold and snow to the region later in the week. Meanwhile the AO continues negative and it appears to remain so for a while. On a side note, a powerful system will effect the Pacific Northwest late in the week , similar to the great storm of 1962 ( The Columbus Day Blow 961 mb. wow !! ) and 1995, and I believe there was one other. All very powerful . I bring this up only as a vague reference to 1995 :-) Also central Canada remains normal to slightly below with expected increases in snow cover as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 11, 2016 Share Posted October 11, 2016 12 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: We need a over under contest for the upcoming winter. How many times will: WinterWxLuvr say "there are a lot of ensemble members that have a good signal for a storm" Yoda copy and paste an AFD or warnings. Bob say "eps" Ian say "meh" Eastcoast say "**** this place" Wes post CWG links Tenman complain about DCA temps Yeoman call Tenman "teninch" Mitch post the CFS Ji post the euro control MG say "Cobb output" C.A.P.E says "blocking" or "nao" Matt talks about something to do with the Pacific that I don't understand at all but agree with The number of times WxUSA baits Ravensrule into a sexually laced quip The number of times somebody says "jb" The number of times somebody links DT's "pre first guess map" Clskinsfan say "I-81 is crushed" If I left any out, please add Additions: Randy says "stop posting" wxdude tells us it's snowing on some mile high peak in Highland county Psuhoffman worries himself silly about being fringed and ends up with more snow than anybody Phin calls out Psuhoffman for his worrying or tells somebody in Charlottesville that they're crazy for thinking they will get snow Hizenberg comes in to tell us all is not lost even though we all know it is Ravens 94 says tells us the ocean will get crushed with a late hooking storm DTK comes in and just crushes the life out of someone questioning the models Somebody calls someone else a bully The mods are too strict Out of subforum weenie tries to do a Euro PBP until Matt sets them straight Matt loses his **** on PAers First Northern fringe event happens and those of us who get snow are shunned the rest of the season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted October 11, 2016 Share Posted October 11, 2016 On 10/9/2016 at 7:20 AM, showmethesnow said: Sorry, my statement was poorly worded and gives the impression that the CFS looks horrible which is not the case. The pattern it shows does have promise and with a little tweaking would potentially be a very good pattern. My comment was based solely on the fact that the tweaking the last few months has been more so, 'one step forward and two steps back'. The first and most important thing I look for is where the trough and ridging will set up in the continental US and the CFS has been steadfast the last couple of months on having an eastern trough and a western ridge which is what we want to see. The tweaking I am referring to though is the potential blocking (-Nao) and where it sets up as well as the ability of the pattern to deliver cold air down from the arctic and those are the things that have slipped somewhat. This can be seen with the temp anomalies that have been steadily warning over the last month or so of runs. The CanSips on the other hand hasn't looked good for most of the summer. It has been locked in on a very zonal flow with hints of a central trough for the most part which is a killer for decent snow chances. And that can be seen with the blazing temp anomalies it has been throwing out. If you are rooting for snow you definitely want to hope that the CanSips does not verify. No need to apologize. Understand what you're saying. My comment meaning was that those models were probably doing the same thing then. They'll bounce back and forth, as they're doing now. I agree that the cansips is a bit bothersome though. It could be taking into account the npac sst's and adjusting to a central trough in response to a further west warm blob in the goa than what we had recent winters. Although, if I'm not mistaken, or they've not modified them, these Models weigh heaviest on enso. It is possible it sees it as being mainly neutral and therefore keying on other players/drivers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 11, 2016 Share Posted October 11, 2016 I'll take the Euro monthlies for $1, please. Big -NAO, -EPO, and PNA ridge for December with -NAO and neutral EPO for January. Yeah...we can work with that. I'm not interested in February other than I don't want it to be cold (and right now it's not looking likely that it will be), so I'd happily take my chances with what the Euro is showing right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted October 11, 2016 Share Posted October 11, 2016 14 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: We need a over under contest for the upcoming winter. How many times will: WinterWxLuvr say "there are a lot of ensemble members that have a good signal for a storm" Yoda copy and paste an AFD or warnings. Bob say "eps" Ian say "meh" Eastcoast say "**** this place" Wes post CWG links Tenman complain about DCA temps Yeoman call Tenman "teninch" Mitch post the CFS Ji post the euro control MG say "Cobb output" C.A.P.E says "blocking" or "nao" Matt talks about something to do with the Pacific that I don't understand at all but agree with The number of times WxUSA baits Ravensrule into a sexually laced quip The number of times somebody says "jb" The number of times somebody links DT's "pre first guess map" Clskinsfan say "I-81 is crushed" If I left any out, please add Additions: Randy says "stop posting" wxdude tells us it's snowing on some mile high peak in Highland county Psuhoffman worries himself silly about being fringed and ends up with more snow than anybody Phin calls out Psuhoffman for his worrying or tells somebody in Charlottesville that they're crazy for thinking they will get snow Hizenberg comes in to tell us all is not lost even though we all know it is Ravens 94 says tells us the ocean will get crushed with a late hooking storm DTK comes in and just crushes the life out of someone questioning the models Some dork says "winter cancel". Some dork brags about their seasonal fcst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted October 11, 2016 Share Posted October 11, 2016 Meddler tweeted a pic of snow flying in western North Dakota. Was nice to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 12, 2016 Share Posted October 12, 2016 Fwiw, the latest write up from AER (Cohen) https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation Try to control your enthusiasm, weenies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 12, 2016 Share Posted October 12, 2016 1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said: Fwiw, the latest write up from AER (Cohen) https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation Try to control your enthusiasm, weenies I see what you did there. You said it without really saying it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted October 12, 2016 Share Posted October 12, 2016 2 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said: Fwiw, the latest write up from AER (Cohen) https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation Try to control your enthusiasm, weenies Giggity giggity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted October 12, 2016 Share Posted October 12, 2016 The AO is really impressive at this important time of the month , and looking at ensemble forecasts it appears the rebound to near neutral might be delayed or even not occur as there is a group of members that dive the AO again. I am excited to see what happens later this week over Siberia with snow cover and snow advance. I really hope though the trends hold the entire month. So far, so good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted October 12, 2016 Share Posted October 12, 2016 Im going to predict temps a bit above normal this winter with normal snowfalls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 12, 2016 Share Posted October 12, 2016 7 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I see what you did there. You said it without really saying it. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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