frd Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 UKMET Seasonal looks decent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 I just came across this long range forecast on MSN from Accuweather: http://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/us-winter-forecast-frequent-snow-to-blast-northeast-freeze-may-damage-citrus-crop-in-south/ar-BBwJcq2?li=BBnb7Kz Frequent storms to bring above-normal snowfall to northeastern US Frequent storms across the northeastern U.S. this winter may lead to an above-normal season for snowfall. "I think the Northeast is going to see more than just a few, maybe several, systems in the course of the season," AccuWeather Long-Range Forecaster Paul Pastelok said. Unlike last season, in which most of winter's snowfall came from a few heavy-hitting storms, this winter will last into the early or middle part of spring and will feature frequent snow events. According to Pastelok, accumulation may be limited in areas south of New York City, such as Philadelphia, D.C. and Baltimore. These areas will see a handful of changeover systems, where falling snow transitions to rain and sleet. "But still, Boston, Hartford, along the coastal areas up into Connecticut and southern New England, they can still have a fair amount of snow," he said. Overall, it's predicted that the region will total a below-normal number of subzero days, though the temperature will average 3-5 degrees Fahrenheit lower than last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 I haven't been this excited about a winter season in a long time. I feel like we will have a lot of tracking and late night Yoda play-by-play model action to look forward to. NAMings and such. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 On 9/19/2016 at 3:21 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: Additions You forgot the Ravens94 play by play- it's more AMPED and Randytastic! That was hilarious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 I'm worried I get fringed by that forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 On 9/24/2016 at 8:58 AM, isohume said: isohume saying: Weather is some serious shit. das saying: I don't know what you all are talking about, it's snowing like crazy up here in Clarksburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 So...if region 1.2 hits +1 and region 3.4 hits -1, does that mean we are in El Nina or La Nino? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: So...if region 1.2 hits +1 and region 3.4 hits -1, does that mean we are in El Nina or La Nino? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 3 hours ago, Bob Chill said: So...if region 1.2 hits +1 and region 3.4 hits -1, does that mean we are in El Nina or La Nino? It probably just means we're fooked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 5 hours ago, das said: das saying: I don't know what you all are talking about, it's snowing like crazy up here in Clarksburg. Looking forward to model chasing/bashing season! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 Soooo.. its October. Time for Eurasia rate of change of snow cover watching to commence. C'mon, y'all know you are gonna do this. Useless as it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 EURO seasonal Sept update.....-AO & -NAO for winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 12 hours ago, stadiumwave said: EURO seasonal Sept update.....-AO & -NAO for winter No sign of that on the latest CFSv2 or CanSIPS. Plenty of east coast/WA ridging for the winter months though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 12 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said: No sign of that on the latest CFSv2 or CanSIPS. Plenty of east coast/WA ridging for the winter months though. Mitch would be proud of this post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 8 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Mitch would be proud of this post. I'll take the Euro seasonal over any other model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 12 hours ago, mitchnick said: I'll take the Euro seasonal over any other model. Sign me up for the one that looks coldest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Snow is increasing for sure! It matters in October! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 37 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: Snow is increasing for sure! It matters in October! Likely transient. If we believe in the SAI, then we'd want that snow to melt, then see a reloading of the same pattern a little later in the month so that the rate of increase is greater at that point than it is early in the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 22 minutes ago, mattie g said: Likely transient. If we believe in the SAI, then we'd want that snow to melt, then see a reloading of the same pattern a little later in the month so that the rate of increase is greater at that point than it is early in the month. I just want everything to point to a good snowy winter! SAI along with the rest! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Long live the blob! Back from the dead enso! (no convenient punctuation access) http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/sst.anom.anim.week.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Canada Snow Cover about to increase significantly (Says GFS) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 On 10/3/2016 at 11:51 AM, midatlanticweather said: Why no 2014 or 2015? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 59 minutes ago, eurojosh said: Why no 2014 or 2015? Because they didn't follow the accepted theory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 I don't care how we do it- I want a Holiday season as cold as 1983 with twin HECS the week before Christmas and again on New Year's Eve. Don't give me pesky science facts and climo- if we can do all the crap we did last December with heat, we can go the other way too. ...man, I just channeled the spirit of Jebman there for a minute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 5 hours ago, eurojosh said: Why no 2014 or 2015? I do not know! I grabbed the chart as it was! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 Glad I don't take much stock on the CFS because it gotten progressively worse over the last 4-6 weeks for snow lovers. Hope this is just a case where it flips on a dime like we have seen so often from it in the past. As far as the CanSips, it hasn't looked good all summer and that hasn't changed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted October 9, 2016 Share Posted October 9, 2016 18 hours ago, showmethesnow said: Glad I don't take much stock on the CFS because it gotten progressively worse over the last 4-6 weeks for snow lovers. Hope this is just a case where it flips on a dime like we have seen so often from it in the past. As far as the CanSips, it hasn't looked good all summer and that hasn't changed. When was the last time either forecasted the same thing at this juncture , and the winter turned out the opposite ? Probably happened 2013-14 and 2014-15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted October 9, 2016 Share Posted October 9, 2016 4 hours ago, Daniel Boone said: When was the last time either forecasted the same thing at this juncture , and the winter turned out the opposite ? Probably happened 2013-14 and 2014-15. Sorry, my statement was poorly worded and gives the impression that the CFS looks horrible which is not the case. The pattern it shows does have promise and with a little tweaking would potentially be a very good pattern. My comment was based solely on the fact that the tweaking the last few months has been more so, 'one step forward and two steps back'. The first and most important thing I look for is where the trough and ridging will set up in the continental US and the CFS has been steadfast the last couple of months on having an eastern trough and a western ridge which is what we want to see. The tweaking I am referring to though is the potential blocking (-Nao) and where it sets up as well as the ability of the pattern to deliver cold air down from the arctic and those are the things that have slipped somewhat. This can be seen with the temp anomalies that have been steadily warning over the last month or so of runs. The CanSips on the other hand hasn't looked good for most of the summer. It has been locked in on a very zonal flow with hints of a central trough for the most part which is a killer for decent snow chances. And that can be seen with the blazing temp anomalies it has been throwing out. If you are rooting for snow you definitely want to hope that the CanSips does not verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 9, 2016 Share Posted October 9, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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