AlaskaETC Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Before anyone locks this, I started last year's preseason thread on March 9th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowershoresadness Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Seriously. Stop with the gifs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Before anyone locks this, I started last year's preseason thread on March 9th. And look how good this winter turned out to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Dec: +3 Jan: +6 Feb +5 IAD: 7" DCA: 3.5" BWI: 8.4" RIC: 1.7" OKV: 0 Mappy: 35" PSU: 56" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Quick and loose analog set. Simple stuff. Enso neutral following a nino or multi year nino of any strength. I have my doubts about a full blown nina. Could happen but there's a lot of work to do. My total wag is neutral with neg neutral being the most likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 The most important stat...snowfall... 58-59: 4.9 59-60: 24.3 66-67: 37.1 78-79: 37.7 80-81: 4.5 83-84: 8.6 92-93: 11.7 05-06: 13.6 58-59 was tecnically a Nino but a really weak one so I tossed it in just for fun. Maybe I should scratch it because the snow sucked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Why can't we ever get back-to-back moderate or strong El Ninos? It just seems to be hard to maintain El Ninos period. But La Ninas can stay for years. Why is that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Why can't we ever get back-to-back moderate or strong El Ninos? It just seems to be hard to maintain El Ninos period. But La Ninas can stay for years. Why is that? Science is mostly undecided why the difference. I read about it a couple years ago but don't clearly remember the paper. My guess is strong easterly trades are easier to maintain because that's the natural direction along the equator. Nino's are weak or reversal of the trades so it would seem logical that it's harder to maintain something like that. This will be an interesting year to see if we flip to an official Nina. It's common with strong + events but there aren't very many so it's hard to jump on the Nina train just cuz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 The most important stat...snowfall... 58-59: 4.9 59-60: 24.3 66-67: 37.1 78-79: 37.7 80-81: 4.5 83-84: 8.6 92-93: 11.7 05-06: 13.6 58-59 was tecnically a Nino but a really weak one so I tossed it in just for fun. Maybe I should scratch it because the snow sucked. where is 95-96 after strong 95 nino Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Love the gifs Lowershoresadness. Please continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 The most important stat...snowfall... 58-59: 4.9 59-60: 24.3 66-67: 37.1 78-79: 37.7 80-81: 4.5 83-84: 8.6 92-93: 11.7 05-06: 13.6 58-59 was tecnically a Nino but a really weak one so I tossed it in just for fun. Maybe I should scratch it because the snow sucked. Why those years? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 where is 95-96 after strong 95 nino95 wasn't strong but if we're doing all ninos it should be in there. We still can't figure out what's happening in 3 days but we will nail 9 months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Why those years? I picked non ninas following a nino. Only because I'm not sold on the sure nina thing. Which could be wrong. Luckily we have 9 months to discuss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 I picked non ninas following a nino. Only because I'm not sold on the sure nina thing. Which could be wrong. Luckily we have 9 months to discuss. Ok. I have a hard time with enso and seeing a connection to the quality of the winter. 95-96, 13-14, great. Compare to ... 08-09, 11-12 awful. Very comparable numbers. 14-15 great. Compare to .... 90-91 awful. Very comparable numbers. I think there are other more important factors at play. I just don't know what they are. We've been damned unlucky this past month. I don't know that I can blame the Nino for all of our troubles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 7, 2016 Share Posted March 7, 2016 Bump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted March 7, 2016 Share Posted March 7, 2016 All I care about next year is finding a way to get a region wide WSW event in December. I've basically been shutout every December since 2009 and I'm sick of it. With a possible La Nina coming up that might be possible! The rest of the winter could blowtorch for all I care. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted March 8, 2016 Share Posted March 8, 2016 Seriously. Stop with the gifs.Whaaaaaat?!? No way. They're awesome.Just put him on ignore if you don't want to see them. But nine months from met winter, the gifs are probably the best thing in this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 8, 2016 Share Posted March 8, 2016 Right. Those. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted March 8, 2016 Share Posted March 8, 2016 Whaaaaaat?!? No way. They're awesome. Just put him on ignore if you don't want to see them. But nine months from met winter, the gifs are probably the best thing in this thread. X2. Some people just are downers. Next winter is gonna rock! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 8, 2016 Share Posted March 8, 2016 Yeah. I'm a downer who wants to keep my job and still check this board and stuff. Boo me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 8, 2016 Share Posted March 8, 2016 CFS says we ay no La Nina. HM and Mike Ventrice have stated they disagree with the CFS on Twitter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 8, 2016 Share Posted March 8, 2016 CFS says we ay no La Nina. HM and Mike Ventrice have stated they disagree with the CFS on Twitter. Spring is a terrible time to use guidance for long range enso stuff. Clarity doesn't emerge until we get past the spring barrier and even then... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 8, 2016 Share Posted March 8, 2016 Spring is a terrible time to use guidance for long range enso stuff. Clarity doesn't emerge until we get past the spring barrier and even then... ill take a weak La Nina. JB says he thinks we are going to a strong Nina which would be brutal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 28, 2016 Share Posted March 28, 2016 Latest ECMWF plumes aren't vigorous with crashing into mod nina territory. Would be -.5+/- for a JAS trimonthly. Early spring is a really bad time to trust long range enso guidance but it does bring up the conversation...are we headed towards a mod or strong Nina or will next winter be more in line with some of the neutral following Nino seasons? Obviously we root for neutral or weak nina. As a whole, winters following a mod or strong nino are a total mixed bag. Some real clunkers but some decent ones as well. 58-59: steaming pile of dung but also held onto weak nino status 66-67: kick ass. Cold neutral with lots of snow 73-74: good enough. Strong nina with slightly above normal snow 83-84: another stinker. Cold neutral enso 87-88: decent but vet day had a lot to do with it. I'm only throwing this one in there because it was on the heels of back to back nino's. 92-93: below normal but winter did exist at times. I don't like this year for any analog because of the volcano. Really throws a wrench in the works 98-99: pretty crappy for DJF but the march snow saved it from being a total disaster. Mod-strong nina. I don't think years following 02-03 or 09-10 add much value but follow the same general theme. Enough snow and cold to not consider them to be bad winters but nothing great. 10-11 had a real shot at some nice totals but some pretty ugly luck got in the way. Might not have been luck as much as typical nina miller B screwjobs. Maybe we were lucky we got the Jan storm. Personally, I hated the winter after the boxing day gut punch. Being a mega snow town and then experiencing the post holiday disaster really took its toll on me. The last few years have certainly had a 60's type of vibe. Good luck and lots of snow. I'll go with 66-67 as my top analog lol. One good thing about Nina's is that they are generally front loaded if they can produce. A good region wide December storm would be nice. Looking back at the limited data pretty much paints a picture of DCA getting 10-15" with equal chances of total disaster or solid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 28, 2016 Share Posted March 28, 2016 Latest ECMWF plumes aren't vigorous with crashing into mod nina territory. Would be -.5+/- for a JAS trimonthly. Early spring is a really bad time to trust long range enso guidance but it does bring up the conversation...are we headed towards a mod or strong Nina or will next winter be more in line with some of the neutral following Nino seasons? Obviously we root for neutral or weak nina. As a whole, winters following a mod or strong nino are a total mixed bag. Some real clunkers but some decent ones as well. 58-59: steaming pile of dung but also held onto weak nino status 66-67: kick ass. Cold neutral with lots of snow 73-74: good enough. Strong nina with slightly above normal snow 83-84: another stinker. Cold neutral enso 87-88: decent but vet day had a lot to do with it. I'm only throwing this one in there because it was on the heels of back to back nino's. 92-93: below normal but winter did exist at times. I don't like this year for any analog because of the volcano. Really throws a wrench in the works 98-99: pretty crappy for DJF but the march snow saved it from being a total disaster. Mod-strong nina. I don't think years following 02-03 or 09-10 add much value but follow the same general theme. Enough snow and cold to not consider them to be bad winters but nothing great. 10-11 had a real shot at some nice totals but some pretty ugly luck got in the way. Might not have been luck as much as typical nina miller B screwjobs. Maybe we were lucky we got the Jan storm. Personally, I hated the winter after the boxing day gut punch. Being a mega snow town and then experiencing the post holiday disaster really took its toll on me. The last few years have certainly had a 60's type of vibe. Good luck and lots of snow. I'll go with 66-67 as my top analog lol. One good thing about Nina's is that they are generally front loaded if they can produce. A good region wide December storm would be nice. Looking back at the limited data pretty much paints a picture of DCA getting 10-15" with equal chances of total disaster or solid. but w/o the -NAO otoh, CFS2 ain't so gung ho on a NINA it did pretty well predicting this year's super NINO, so maybe it could be closer to right (warmer) than the Euro either way, I'm mentally prepared for a disaster winter, so close to normal will feel like a snowy year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted March 28, 2016 Share Posted March 28, 2016 99% of this winter has me already acquainted with, and prepared for, a disaster winter. A Dec with < +10F anomaly will feel like a win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 This is a great look if you hate winter weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 This is a great look if you hate winter weather Not much different that last Dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 Not much different that last Dec. CFS and CanSips are both pretty warm and not a great h5 look for DJF. Obviously there is limited skill and value with huge lead times. We won't really have a good benchmark to guess on until ENSO is figured out. It still has a long ways to go before neg anomalies start showing in the ENSO regions. I'd be perfectly happy with a neg neutral enso this winter. Anything less than -1C anomalies wouldn't be reason to worry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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