packfan98 Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Another run, another different solution. Not really. The track and strength of the low is very similar. The cold air is similar. There is a difference at the surface, but the major factors are pretty much the same when comparing to the 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Not really. The track and strength of the low is very similar. The cold air is similar. There is a difference at the surface, but the major factors are pretty much the same when comparing to the 6z. Previous runs had some snow here. This one didn't. Also lowers the totals everywhere else. So, in that aspect, the solution is different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Another run, another different solution. Its really not even close, maybe at best RDU could see a mix or very brief period of snow, surface temps will be above freezing and I guesthere could be a sloppy .5-1" fall somewhere around RDU in the wee hrs if everything worked out but its just not really likely at all. The chances this bust into something more than that is something that just doesnt happen anymore. If the models all had 2-3" of snow for you then chances are high you bust with nothing, if the models say no snow then chances are crazy low that it bust into something meaningful snow wise. Sounding suck here is the NAM sounding for RDU 18 hrs from now so around 3-4 am.... by the time the soundings get better the meaningful precip is over.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 I can't really get too excited about an outside chance of two snowflakes potentially mixing in with the rain at 3:00 AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 I can't really get too excited about an outside chance of two snowflakes potentially mixing in with the rain at 3:00 AM. What your not going to be awake squinting at street lights hoping to see a possible snowflake falling a bit slower than all the rest of the raindrops at 3am.....though based on soundings if you see any snow there it will be more like 6am but the QPF is gone so then the shallow warm nose will most likely be enough to keep it rain/drizzle since the rates will not be enough to overcome it....so maybe a few flakes going to work in the morning is the best you can hope for...as it stands now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 I'm surprised places like Highlands and Cashiers aren't under advisories. It looks like they may do well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 12z RGEM looks similar to the nam in that it is further south with the low coming across and is therefore drier for the mountains. Not looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 I'm surprised places like Highlands and Cashiers aren't under advisories. It looks like they may do well.me too. They don't even have a warning or advisory for the smokies, I know that's wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Much less precip on the 12z gfs too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 What your not going to be awake squinting at street lights hoping to see a possible snowflake falling a bit slower than all the rest of the raindrops at 3am.....though based on soundings if you see any snow there it will be more like 6am but the QPF is gone so then the shallow warm nose will most likely be enough to keep it rain/drizzle since the rates will not be enough to overcome it....so maybe a few flakes going to work in the morning is the best you can hope for...as it stands now Lol. I will hopefully be sound asleep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Less precip on most of the modeling this morning. Not what any of us want to see. I have no expectations down here in the NW Piedmont, anyways. I thought a mix with some periods of snow and maybe a dusting was possible, but I'm not sure now. The NWS forecast here looks reasonable, though. Rain to a wintry mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Less precip on most of the modeling this morning. Not what any of us want to see. I have no expectations down here in the NW Piedmont, anyways. less precip for everyone, including the SW NC mountains ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 less precip for everyone, including the SW NC mountains ? Yes. 0.2-0.4" QPF in the SW NC mountains on the latest GFS and NAM. Of course, it's time to toss all the models 'cuz it's nowcasting time, baby!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDowell_Weather Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Previous runs had some snow here. This one didn't. Also lowers the totals everywhere else. So, in that aspect, the solution is different. Brick, as long as you've been a member/ weather hobbyist, do you not understand the basics of understanding what a models is showing? Or do you just go off what other posters and Mets say on here and Facebook. Learn the basics bro and I guarantee you will be disappointed alot less. I know a third of what most know on here, but I get the general idea. I'm not putting you down man, but it gets old after awhile, along with Mack and his troll posts. This storm is a no go for people outside the mountain's and even then it's a 3500ft plus event. I'll be luck to see a mix of rain/snow later tonight. And by the way the Carolina crusher was sixteen years ago, we've came a long way with models since then. I highly doubt an event of that magnitude is ever under modeled again. Yes it's possible, anything is possible when it comes to weather, but it's extremely unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonysc Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 You know, I can remember a few times in my life when the forecast was very similar to this........some snow possible in the mountains and cold rain everywhere else, and we would end up getting a solid snowstorm. And the two or three I remember off the top of my head were all in March. I'm just sayin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Brick, as long as you've been a member/ weather hobbyist, do you not understand the basics of understanding what a models is showing? Or do you just go off what other posters and Mets say on here and Facebook. Learn the basics bro and I guarantee you will be disappointed alot less. I know a third of what most know on here, but I get the general idea. I'm not putting you down man, but it gets old after awhile, along with Mack and his troll posts. This storm is a no go for people outside the mountain's and even then it's a 3500ft plus event. I'll be luck to see a mix of rain/snow later tonight. And by the way the Carolina crusher was sixteen years ago, we've came a long way with models since then. I highly doubt an event of that magnitude is ever under modeled again. Yes it's possible, anything is possible when it comes to weather, but it's extremely unlikely. All I said is this run had less snow, so it was not as good as the other model runs. The solution, the final output the run showed, was different. I didn't say I was disappointed about anything, either. I don't see how what you said has anything at all to do with what I said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDowell_Weather Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 All I said is this run had less snow, so it was not as good as the other model runs. The solution, the final output the run showed, was different. Not sure that has anything to do with what you said at all. Not really, I'm not trying to hound you man, but every year, every storm you just go off what someone else posts or says. Just because one run had RDU at .5 to an 1in at best and the next had nothing dosent mean the overall solution changed that much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Not really, I'm not trying to hound you man, but every year, every storm you just go off what someone else posts or says. Just because one run had RDU at .5 to an 1in at best and the next had nothing dosent mean the overall solution changed that much. Did I say it was a momentous change? I just said the solution, which is the final outcome it shows, was different. And it was. Sounds like you are the one making more of a big deal out of what I said than anything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDowell_Weather Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Did I say it was a momentous change? I just said the solution, which is the final outcome it shows, was different. And it was. Sounds like you are the one making more of a big deal out of what I said than anything else. No, I'm just making a point man, again I'm not trying to be mean, but you do this every storm, it just gets old. No run is exactly the same as the last down to a T. They can be close but not 100% exact. Bottom line anybody below 3500ft is out of luck, unless you consider a mix a score. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 No, I'm just making a point man, again I'm not trying to be mean, but you do this every storm, it just gets old. No run is exactly the same as the last down to a T. They can be close but not 100% exact. Bottom line anybody below 3500ft is out of luck, unless you consider a mix a score. You really are making a mountain out of a mole hill. All I said was another run, another different solution. It went from giving us some snow, even though it was just a little bit, to nothing. Others commented on the same thing. Did I make a big deal out of it? No. Did I say I was disappointed? No. I just commented that the solution was different. Previous runs had me seeing a little snow, and now it doesn't. So what's the big deal? I wasn't complaining about anything. Not sure how you got all you said out of me just saying the solution was different because now it didn't show any snow here. Seems like you are reaching to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx n of atl Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 I am hearnig reports of snow in N. AL and N. GA this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 I am hearnig reports of snow in N. AL and N. GA this morning. I'm assuming a lot of what's showing up on radar in NW GA is sleet also, but I haven't heard any ground truth to that. http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=FFC&product=N0R&overlay=11111111&loop=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Discuss the weather, not each other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 well latest 24hr hrrr looks sort of interesting early tomorrow morn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Its sleeting in paulding county, ga Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 I am hearnig reports of snow in N. AL and N. GA this morning. Several people are posting to Spann on Twitter with photos of snow and/or sleet. As far as what the models are showing... RAH is currently forecasting 1/2" - 3/4" rain overnight for my location. Will be interesting to see how/if the afternoon package changes in the QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Surface temps seem to be a little lower than expected here, I believe. That could help (colder rain? ), though we'll see. Current OBS (as of noon): 42/16, WB 33.7F. Looks like the RAP thinks it's 47/22 here at this hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VanillaDream Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Its sleeting in paulding county, ga Just cloudy here but temp is falling. 42/33 now. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Heavy sleet in Lithia. Bizarre, it's like a grauple sleet rain mix Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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