Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,609
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    NH8550
    Newest Member
    NH8550
    Joined

March 4 Winter Storm Threat


RubiksDestroyer

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 349
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Can you say slightly over done  :lmao:

 

 

Guidance models continue to come in a little colder and with less low pressure from the northern stream. The European and American weather computers have now both lost the northern stream low! This means more energy for the southern stream low pressure system which can pull more cold air into the system. If the southern stream low continues to trend stronger then snowfall totals will go up and temperatures will continue to go down.

The image below currently reflects WXeasterns idea of snow accumulations tomorrow night thru Saturday but keep in mind this is a changing situation...

 
12814493_980083132099439_199564195413775
Like
Like
Love
Haha
Wow
Sad
Angry
 
CommentShare
 
 
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Dang, the Euro just came in colder. The clown shows 3" here. 850s are just below freezing here on the 6-hr panels, at least, with 0.4" QPF. Surface temps fall into the low 30s. There could be a sneaky warm nose in there above 850 mb, but I have no way to know.

Crushes SE VA. The Euro is pretty meager with precip for the mountains, though. Mostly around 0.2" QPF there. Lots of uncertainty.

I'm starting to think we might be able to eek out some light slushy accumulations here. Maybe. I'm usually too optimistic, though.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Dang, the Euro just came in colder. The clown shows 3" here. 850s are just below freezing here on the 6-hr panels, at least, with 0.4" QPF. Surface temps fall into the low 30s. There could be a sneaky warm nose in there above 850 my, but I have no way to know.

Crushes SE VA.

rut roh, may have to back track my Inch prediction, and up it to 1.5 inches  :lmao:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

32...33...34 will save most locations in NC from a very icy mess Friday morning for places like Statesville and Winston-Salem. 

 

I think rain turning to ice will be a bigger concern for mountains underneath the snow. This will be for the mountains areas who don't start to end as all snow. Also some potential for this water to ice just around or just east of Asheville up to Mount Airy if temps can bottom out in the upper 20s by 8am post precip.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Dang, the Euro just came in colder. The clown shows 3" here. 850s are just below freezing here on the 6-hr panels, at least, with 0.4" QPF. Surface temps fall into the low 30s. There could be a sneaky warm nose in there above 850 mb, but I have no way to know.

Crushes SE VA. The Euro is pretty meager with precip for the mountains, though. Mostly around 0.2" QPF there. Lots of uncertainty.

I'm starting to think we might be able to eek out some light slushy accumulations here. Maybe. I'm usually too optimistic, though.

 

It's a no go for more than a trace to 0.5" around your neck of the woods in terms of wet snowfall accumulations. Check out the cloud product from WU on the 0z EURO, you finally get the critical temps you need only because of clearing skies develop in the foothills between hour 30-33 while moisture is shunted east well before then.

 

I hope I'm wrong tho and if we were to ever be surprised in a good way it usually only happens in March. I would think you are far away from 0.5" range...closer to trace to 0.25" snow. Those that sleep till 9 or 10am may miss it in the Piedmont.

 

Mountains are sweet spot on Euro on I think because I'm favoring a very thermal critically driven system for snow even if you eek out more moisture.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

experimental 24hr hrrr has snow juuuust to the north of rdu under the heaviest precip band around 3am. not expecing anything but if short range models trend better i may have to stay up late just in case.

 

Looks like I might be in a good spot in Wake County for this one. I don't think anything will really stick, but it would be nice to see snow fall for a while without changing to sleet or freezing rain.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...