Stormcatt Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 That depends on where you are. Pretty much everywhere outside the mountains Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 NAM looks interesting...how did the EPS look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 KGSP does not seem impressed even for the NW Mountains in the Afternoon AFD. They mentioned any snow that falls would be below advisory levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 NAM looks interesting...how did the EPS look? It's coming in a little colder. At hour 60 the 850 line runs across northern NC with .25 or > from RDU westwards. Don't know what the surface temps are; which will be crucial. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 The 18z NAM crushes the SW NC mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDowell_Weather Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 NAM looks interesting...how did the EPS look? I'll gladly take it and call it a winter.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 The 18z NAM crushes the SW NC mountains. Even crushes a good part of the I-40 corridor out into the foothills and maybe even western Piedmont Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Even crushes a good part of the I-40 corridor out into the foothills and maybe even western Piedmont Surface temps will hurt most chances outside the mountains. At hour 54 surface temps across central and western NC would be in the low to mid 40s with dew points in the mid/upper 20s. http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2016&model_mm=03&model_dd=01&model_init_hh=18&fhour=54¶meter=TMPF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Nam looked great! Too bad it's the Nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Anyone look at the EPS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Surface temps will hurt most chances outside the mountains. At hour 54 surface temps across central and western NC would be in the low to mid 40s with dew points in the mid/upper 20s. http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2016&model_mm=03&model_dd=01&model_init_hh=18&fhour=54¶meter=TMPF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false At hour 54 there's very little precip so the temps would be around 40 here but you need to look at hour 57 and 60 when the fireworks are going off here. Has me at 33 degrees while its blitzing snow down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOKNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC338 PM EST TUE MAR 1 2016PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE-WILSON-THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA..DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAYNIGHT COULD RESULT IN A LIGHT WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE NORTHERNPIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THEVIRGINIA STATE LINE. NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 NWS Raleigh afternoon discussion: .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...AS OF 245 PM TUESDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW REASONABLY GOOD TIMING CONSENSUS...AND THEGFS HAS TRENDED ITS MILLER TYPE-B SURFACE EVOLUTION TOWARDS ASTRONGER...SOUTHERLY COASTAL LOW BECOMING DOMINANT THURSDAY NIGHTWHICH RESEMBLES THE CONSISTENT ECMWFS SOLUTION AS THE SYSTEM ISPULLING OFFSHORE BY 12Z.THAT SAID...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATING OFFSHORE SETS UP MODESTWARM AIR ADVECTION THURSDAY MORNING TO PROVIDE SOME ISENTROPIC LIFTTHROUGH THE DAY...BUT LIMITED BY WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION DUE TOWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN GMEX AND GULF STATES. ASSUCH...WILL MAINTAIN AN INCREASING TREND FROM SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTHE AFTERNOON IN THE WEST WHERE LIFT WILL BE MAXIMIZED...TO A LIKELYCHANCE OF SHOWERS EVERYWHERE CONCURRENT WITH THE RAPID COLD FRONTALPASSAGE OVERNIGHT. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND SUB-FREEZING TEMPS WILL BELAGGING THE PRECIPITATION...WHICH WILL MAKE A CHANGEOVER OR MIX WITHANY SNOW RATHER DIFFICULT TO ACHIEVE AS THE PRECIP RATES WILL BEEITHER VERY LIGHT OR MORE LIKELY...ENDING BY THE TIME THE LOWESTLEVELS ARE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW. WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OFMIXED RAIN/SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHTTOMORROW NIGHT...WITH POPS ENDING IN THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAYMORNING. ANY ACCUMULATION OF SNOW WILL BE LIGHT AND LIMITED TOGRASSY OR OTHER RAISED SURFACES. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE WITHIN ADEGREE OR TWO OF 50...WITH MINS THURSDAY NIGHT FROM THE MID 30SACROSS THE NORTH TO AROUND 40 ACROSS THE SOUTH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 All that cold air can't make its way south might go to the mountains to see some flakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 At hour 54 there's very little precip so the temps would be around 40 here but you need to look at hour 57 and 60 when the fireworks are going off here. Has me at 33 degrees while its blitzing snow down. You would need heavy rates. Surface / dew points temps would scream cold rain, but we've seen where these types of storms can produce. Also the models could trend colder the next few runs. Hour 60 dew points: http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2016&model_mm=03&model_dd=01&model_init_hh=18&fhour=60¶meter=DPTF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 You would need heavy rates. Surface / dew points temps would scream cold rain, but we've seen where these types of storms can produce. Also the models could trend colder the next few runs. Hour 60 dew points: http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2016&model_mm=03&model_dd=01&model_init_hh=18&fhour=60¶meter=DPTF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Not sure I follow. How does a surface temp of 33 with 850s well below freezing at hour 57 when the heavy precip is falling scream cold rain? Heck even with light precip that would be snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Not sure I follow. How does a surface temp of 33 with 850s well below freezing at hour 57 when the heavy precip is falling scream cold rain? Heck even with light precip that would be snow. You could be right. I just looked at your location and you have elevation on your side. For most of us outside the mountains it's going to be hard with what the NAM is showing. http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2016&model_mm=03&model_dd=01&model_init_hh=18&fhour=63¶meter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Still have sloppy flakes in the forecast!!! .THURSDAY NIGHT...RAIN. SNOW LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LITTLE OR NOSNOW ACCUMULATION. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. LIGHT AND VARIABLEWINDS. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 90 PERCENT..FRIDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MORNING. PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS INTHE MID 40S. CHANCE OF SNOW 40 PERCENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 18Z GFS finally getting a clue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOKNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC338 PM EST TUE MAR 1 2016 NCZ007>011-021>028-038>041-043-022045-PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE-WILSON-338 PM EST TUE MAR 1 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAYNIGHT COULD RESULT IN A LIGHT WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE NORTHERNPIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THEVIRGINIA STATE LINE. NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 18Z GFS finally getting a clue. Yep, much farther south and west. Colder too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RubiksDestroyer Posted March 1, 2016 Author Share Posted March 1, 2016 The 18z RGEM looks good at 54... Looks more in line with the Euro than the GFS. Further south with the LP, and seems to be transfering quicker. 850 mb temps are slightly colder than the NAM, especially on the west side of the mountains/TN, which relates to the primary transfering further south; probably means it will be colder down the road, and the cold aloft won't retreat [as quickly] like the GFS shows. This is what I've wanted to see the models trend more towards, as it's what those of us in the northern piedmont want to see to get anything out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 The 18z RGEM looks good at 54... Looks more in line with the Euro than the GFS. Further south with the LP, and seems to be transfering quicker. 850 mb temps are slightly colder than the NAM, especially on the west side of the mountains/TN, which relates to the primary transfering further south; probably means it will be colder down the road, and the cold aloft won't retreat [as quickly] like the GFS shows. This is what I've wanted to see the models trend more towards, as it's what those of us in the northern piedmont want to see to get anything out of this. I just want it to do something in your back yard..(Mebane) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RubiksDestroyer Posted March 2, 2016 Author Share Posted March 2, 2016 I just want it to do something in your back yard..(Mebane) Yeah, I do too, lol. I hope you guys down in the Raleigh area get to see at least a few flakes mix in Thursday night/Friday morning, but I don't even know if there will be much of anything here. Hopefully the 00z models are more telling as to what will happen... I'm encouraged by the 18z model runs, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 4km NAM seems to think ATL can get T-1" out of this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 The Euro upped QPF quite a bit tonight. Interesting potential wet snow setup as shown, IMO. BL is iffy, but there might be enough precip to overcome it. Not a big storm either way, of course, but still. Decent for the mountains, regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 The Euro upped QPF quite a bit tonight. Interesting potential wet snow setup as shown, IMO. BL is iffy, but there might be enough precip to overcome it. Not a big storm either way, of course, but still. Decent for the mountains, regardless. What is qpf for NW mtns? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 What is qpf for NW mtns? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Boone is 0.4" QPF. About the same for Asheville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Boone is 0.4" QPF. About the same for Asheville. Thanks, I would take that in a heartbeat. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 06Z GFS will make the central VA folks happy.....lots more snow than the last two runs.....7-10" Richmond and areas NE of town towards DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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