NWNC2015 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 I consider that a big dog for VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 JB says "blend of the Canadian, Nam, GFS is where I am now"......speechless. 51 members of the EPS have the general track somewhere between MYR and SAV then up just off the NC coast to just east of HAT, but he thinks it's going to reform off the VA Capes and crush the MA to the NE. This is inside day 4 now. NC/VA border up to Richmond and then to NC mountains look good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Aggravating, where has this been, finally booted the big ridge off the NE, nice low over the NE with a nice NAO block. 2 weeks ago this would have been a nice event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Aggravating, where has this been, finally booted the big ridge off the NE, nice low over the NE with a nice NAO block. 2 weeks ago this would have been a nice event. Yeah, that's why I'm calling it the yearly March troll storm. It's what we finally needed, but just a biiiiiitttt too late. Mother nature trolling us. Seems like we always get a nice -NAO in March/April when it does us absolutely zilch, just keeps cool enough to be uncomfortable when we actually want it to be warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 JB says "blend of the Canadian, Nam, GFS is where I am now"......speechless. 51 members of the EPS have the general track somewhere between MYR and SAV then up just off the NC coast to just east of HAT, but he thinks it's going to reform off the VA Capes and crush the MA to the NE. This is inside day 4 now. NC/VA border up to Richmond and then to NC mountains look good. for jb every storm reforms off the Virginia capes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Yeah, that's why I'm calling it the yearly March troll storm. It's what we finally needed, but just a biiiiiitttt too late. Mother nature trolling us. Seems like we always get a nice -NAO in March/April when it does us absolutely zilch, just keeps cool enough to be uncomfortable when we actually want it to be warm. That's a good one :-)! I was thinking the same but you said it better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 I consider that a big dog for VA. You should post in the MA thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nomanslandva Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 The NAM says forget it. 18z was bad. 00Z is absolutely nothing. Actually, if no snow, I will take this so maybe it will dry out enough that I can get to my sisters farm and cut some firewood for the 17/18 season!!! Past 60 hour NAM though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 NWS Blacksburg says 1-3" mostly in the grass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 0z GFS a touch warmer in the mountains/foothills but outcome similar snow line just a little further north vs. previous run in Piedmont counties of VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 The 00z Euro is basically a carbon copy of the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 WPC gives a 10-20% chance of 1" of snow for Wake County from 7AM Thurs - 7AM Friday. That's as far as it goes out right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 12z NAM is a cold rain for everybody except the higher elevations. http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2016&model_mm=03&model_dd=01&model_init_hh=12&fhour=69¶meter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 12z NAM is a cold rain for everybody except the higher elevations. http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2016&model_mm=03&model_dd=01&model_init_hh=12&fhour=69¶meter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false If it still shows that at 48h, then I will be concerned. Let's see what the global models have to say today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 12z NAM is a cold rain for everybody except the higher elevations. http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2016&model_mm=03&model_dd=01&model_init_hh=12&fhour=69¶meter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Midlevels are okay at the start for some areas outside the mountains initially, but the BL is on fire. The GFS looks awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Track of the storm, lack of cold air in place, lack of a cold air transport, lack of dynamic cooling, bad trends, etc., etc., etc., etc. Not one thing going in our favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Track of the storm, lack of cold air in place, lack of a cold air transport, lack of dynamic cooling, bad trends, etc., etc., etc., etc. Not one thing going in our favor. Definitely not a winter storm. Mix precipitation at 34 degrees or flurries is not something to get excited about at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Gfs is north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Gfs is north Yep and 12z CMC keeps the low south. Models are really struggling with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 The Canadian is a lot further south than the GFS or NAM. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Yep and 12z CMC keeps the low south. Models are really struggling with this one.Euro has been pretty consistent, let's hope it's right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDowell_Weather Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 From what I see on the OP, the Mtns/foothills will at least see a wet snow. I feel confident here in McDowell county especially mby in northern McDowell. Temps is very borderline though. I'm going with the Euro, it's done very well with the low tracks this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 The 12z NAVGEM is further south. Quite cold, but very light on QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 The 12z NAVGEM is further south. Quite cold, but very light on QPF.How's the French looking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Hard to get any frozen outside of the mountains with a look like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 How's the French looking? Fairly far south like the 12z Euro and GGEM. Problem is, QPF is pretty bleak on the Euro and surface temps suck (not helped by the lack of QPF). I don't think this is going to work out anywhere outside the mountains, to be honest, but it bears watching just in case. There just isn't a lot of QPF, in general, though, so even if it does snow it won't be much and with meager QPF it won't help matters that soil temps are probably on fire after all the warmth recently. The lack of QPF isn't helping BL temperatures, either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 12z euro still warm Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 12z euro still warm Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk That depends on where you are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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