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March 4 Winter Storm Threat


RubiksDestroyer

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Just giving a closer look to the 12z EURO by hour 93


 


#Boone is where you want to be for this storm. I wouldn't rule out 3 or 4".


 


I would be worried, but not a total loss, if you are south of a line from Mars Hill....Morganton...Hickory. There I think more mixing and much less accumulations under 1".


 


Timing is good for Friday morning. Most areas outside of the central/northern mountains will likely see everything melted by afternoon.


 


Further north to my backyard and east areas out to Winston...isolated 1-2" possible where its cold enough...most spots probably under 1" too.


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18z NAM has one low developing off the SC coast and another in Kentucky at hour 84. 850 line runs from NE NC SW to near Charlotte. Not a lot of precip at this point. 

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=084ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_084_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=nam&area=namer&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160229+18+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model

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Just giving a closer look to the 12z EURO by hour 93

#Boone is where you want to be for this storm. I wouldn't rule out 3 or 4".

I would be worried, but not a total loss, if you are south of a line from Mars Hill....Morganton...Hickory. There I think more mixing and much less accumulations under 1".

Timing is good for Friday morning. Most areas outside of the central/northern mountains will likely see everything melted by afternoon.

Further north to my backyard and east areas out to Winston...isolated 1-2" possible where its cold enough...most spots probably under 1" too.

After this dumpster fire of a winter, seeing flakes period , is a win! Seeing flakes in March after this winter, I'm going to Disney World! :)
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issa gots snows in mys 4cast. 

 

.THURSDAY NIGHT...RAIN LIKELY. A CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S.
CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION 60 PERCENT.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING PARTLY
SUNNY. A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MORNING. A CHANCE OF RAIN. HIGHS
IN THE MID 40S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT.   :snowing:  :snowwindow:  :sled:  It gonna b a biggon! 

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About as good as we can expect from RAH at this time:

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM MONDAY...

IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT DEPARTING THE AREA WEDNESDAY
MORNING...SHOWERS WILL BE COMING TO AN END BY MIDDAY IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN AND COLD ADVECTION/WIND GUSTS WILL BE STRONGEST DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. AS SUCH..TEMPS MAY RISE ONLY VERY SLOWLY DURING THE
MORNING...REACHING THE MID 40S NW TO MID 50S SE BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...RESULTING IN LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S

GENERALLY BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN
US LATE THIS WEEK AS A VORTEX WOBBLES OVER EASTERN CANADA.  A PERIOD
OF FLATTER FLOW ALOFT WILL BRIEFLY DEVELOP THURSDAY AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE RACES FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TOWARD CENTRAL PLAINS.
THIS SYSTEM...WHICH IS STILL A COUPLE DAYS AWAY FROM REACHING THE US
UPPER AIR NETWORK...IS EXPECTED TO SWING RAPIDLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS.  THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW A MORE NORTHERN TRACK THAN
THE COLDER AND MORE SOUTHERN ECMWF TRACK.  BOTH MODELS ARE
CONSISTENT IN A 1025MB HIGH OVER NEW ENGLAND...SO THE TRACK OF THE
LOW WILL BE CRITICAL TO THE CHANCE OF RAIN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING
TO SNOW ANYWHERE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS EARLY ON FRIDAY...MAINLY NEAR
THE VA BORDER IF THAT. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE A QUICK MOVER AND THE
THERMAL PROFILES/THICKNESSES ARE MARGINAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW...SO
EARLY INDICATIONS ARE THAT IT WILL BE A LOW OR NON-IMPACT EVENT.


THAT SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY EXIT ON FRIDAY...WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM ON ITS
HEELS SUNDAY...THOUGH THAT ONE APPEARS TO BE DRIER.  TEMPS LOOK TO
BE BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY...LOW/MID 50S...REBOUNDING BACK TOWARD
NORMAL UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S ON SUNDAY

&&
 

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18z GFS looks to be a little bit colder at hour 78 with the 850 line almost down to the NC/SC boarder. There is also a good bit more precip pushing up from the SW.

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=078ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_078_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160229+18+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model

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