BristowWx Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 NAM is stronger with both the High and the initial Low. The Low is also a little slower... Panel 42 It does sir. Different than 12z which had that strong southern low. Not sure it will matter but 1 inch would be ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Stop posting. Literally lol'd. I needed that after the day I'm having! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Literally lol'd. I needed that after the day I'm having! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Still going to be crappy That transfer is a dog. It's killing us...location and just the general idea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Time to make the winter 2015/16 grade/review thread. I recommend that everyone let WinterWxLvr make the first post. Time to start using the long-range thread for discussing the models regarding the timing of the first Canadian air-masses of early fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 so, no snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 so, no snow? better chance the further north you go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 shut it down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Usually what goes through my head is to clear away all the waffling and non specifics and to counter attempts to make low confidence forecasts that have a built in caveat of claiming partial or whole verification no matter what happens This will be my last post on this matter and to you as well Mr. Tenman Johnson. Several people including myself have tried to be cordial and explain things to you in a simple manner and no matter what people post you dog them anyway. On top of that, none and I repeat none of what you post makes sense. Regardless of how many dang forsaken times I've tried to explain the confidence/uncertainty/methodologies it still goes In one ear and out the other then out the back door. And why do I even bother? i tell colleagues I post here and they shake their head and tell me I'm crazy for doing it for the way they were treated on here before. Hence the reason there are about 5 red taggers left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Tenman will never ever break character for any reason and that is a high confidence forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 gfs gives you hope. changes @ h5... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 seems like the GFS brings the coastal a bit futher NE? cant really recall how close the last few runs are tho so i might be wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Tenman will never ever break character for any reason and that is a high confidence forecast.Howard has been Howard for ever. Just like the navgem..best to ignore usually lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Tenman will never ever break character for any reason and that is a high confidence forecast.Thank you Bob and we get along very well and from my end you are a straight talker with good information Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Tenman will never ever break character for any reason and that is a high confidence forecast. Isn't that wonderful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 This will be my last post on this matter and to you as well Mr. Tenman Johnson. Several people including myself have tried to be cordial and explain things to you in a simple manner and no matter what people post you dog them anyway. On top of that, none and I repeat none of what you post makes sense. Regardless of how many dang forsaken times I've tried to explain the confidence/uncertainty/methodologies it still goes In one ear and out the other then out the back door. And why do I even bother? i tell colleagues I post here and they shake their head and tell me I'm crazy for doing it for the way they were treated on here before. Hence the reason there are about 5 red taggers left. From someone outside the MA area, I still stop by because there are a lot off knowledgeable posters here but when I see his posts insulting pros like dtk with rude and condescending posts that denigrate all the hard work of people working on improving model skills, forecasting etc I just shake my head in disbelief. I certainly appreciate everyone that takes the time to share their knowledge and help educate us hobbyists. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Gfs is getting closer to something. Better hope that coastal keeps trending north because it's getting too close and will get us stuck in its subsidence and the snow from the northern branch system keeps trending north. That's probably a lost cause at this point. Yesterday I thought our best shot was that northern system to hold together but now I think we're screwed if we don't get into the coastal redevelopment. One area of snow will go through pa to our north and the Ccb banding will be to out southeast. One or two more north adjustments and we can pull this out. I'm ok with giving up the 1-3" that wave could have been for an outside shot at more anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Excuse me but I am looking for the storm thread? I like the GFS as it pulls the storm just a wee bit further north. It's our last hurrah. Don't fight. Everyone is just the way they are...good and bad...like a family in therapy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 This will be my last post on this matter and to you as well Mr. Tenman Johnson. Several people including myself have tried to be cordial and explain things to you in a simple manner and no matter what people post you dog them anyway. On top of that, none and I repeat none of what you post makes sense. Regardless of how many dang forsaken times I've tried to explain the confidence/uncertainty/methodologies it still goes In one ear and out the other then out the back door. And why do I even bother? i tell colleagues I post here and they shake their head and tell me I'm crazy for doing it for the way they were treated on here before. Hence the reason there are about 5 red taggers left. Good post, and please don't let some of the BS comments in here get you down or make you feel like leaving. I think most people in here understand fully the issue of uncertainty and confidence. I'd hate to see our regular red taggers and other experts "chased out" by a few who just want to be contrary for its own sake. While I don't always agree totally with your analysis on various events, a large percent of the time I do. And even the times I may differ in opinion, I respect the information you given in those cases, to the point that I'll even investigate the situation for whatever event a bit more to see what you mean. If that makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 People are talking about the coastal coming north....I'd like to see it come west and then turn up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowScout Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Wordy boo hoo Mets deserve no special consideration, we are not "lucky" to have them, they are just one more contributory cog in weather enthusiasts wheel. Bob Chill and I get along well because he is a straight shooter and does not personalize different opinions about weather. Only frightened people, insecure in their own beliefs, call for the banishment of opinions or methods that are not their own I usually just observe, but have to say you are completely classless. You are that little punk kid on the playground who thinks he is big and bad bullying everyone until someone has enough and you run and hide behind the teacher yelling how you were just minding your own business and were picked on. Get a life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 People are talking about the coastal coming north....I'd like to see it come west and then turn up the coast. Remains to be seen I guess, but the latest GFS did kind of suck me back in a little. Not much else to look at, so what the heck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Excuse me but I am looking for the storm thread? I like the GFS as it pulls the storm just a wee bit further north. It's our last hurrah. Don't fight. Everyone is just the way they are...good and bad...like a family in therapy. back on topic. I've noticed the trend also. And we better hope it continues because while we're closer to something more significant from the coastal we are also closer to a total shutout also if the coastal just misses. As it shifts north so does that band of waa snow along the Arctic boundary. Plus the coastal will run interference robbing moisture plus causing subsidence outside the developing Ccb qpf. So we are now stuck rooting for that coastal to continue to trend north or we will be in the dead zone we know so well around here. DC to bwi southeast is very close. Another adjustment it two. Up here and places like Winchester need a bit more help but I haven't given up yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Remains to be seen I guess, but the latest GFS did kind of suck me back in a little. Not much else to look at, so what the heck. your not tracking our March 20 hecs yet??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 back on topic. I've noticed the trend also. And we better hope it continues because while we're closer to something more significant from the coastal we are also closer to a total shutout also if the coastal just misses. As it shifts north so does that band of waa snow along the Arctic boundary. Plus the coastal will run interference robbing moisture plus causing subsidence outside the developing Ccb qpf. So we are now stuck rooting for that coastal to continue to trend north or we will be in the dead zone we know so well around here. DC to bwi southeast is very close. Another adjustment it two. Up here and places like Winchester need a bit more help but I haven't given up yet. You're the very man that used to always say that models don't trend so much north as they do west. Can we get it to start north a little west? LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 People are talking about the coastal coming north....I'd like to see it come west and then turn up the coast. just a crazy thought but one of my favorite events was in feb 96 when a clipper was supposed to miller b to well off nj and give snow to south nj northeast. Even the night before had nothing for us. The low transferred to the va tidewater instead and I woke up to heavy snow in Herndon va. Got about 8" I think. It's about time we got something similar. Get that northern system to transfer to Raleigh instead of Wilmington and were in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 your not tracking our March 20 hecs yet??? Heh! You mean our HERS (historical east coast rain storm)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 back on topic. I've noticed the trend also. And we better hope it continues because while we're closer to something more significant from the coastal we are also closer to a total shutout also if the coastal just misses. As it shifts north so does that band of waa snow along the Arctic boundary. Plus the coastal will run interference robbing moisture plus causing subsidence outside the developing Ccb qpf. So we are now stuck rooting for that coastal to continue to trend north or we will be in the dead zone we know so well around here. DC to bwi southeast is very close. Another adjustment it two. Up here and places like Winchester need a bit more help but I haven't given up yet. At this point, I'm all in for just hoping the coastal trends better for us. Not that "hoping" for anything will influence the weather of course, but you know what I mean. There is little else to root for it seems for this event, so might as well go for broke in that regard I suppose. All or nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 12zpara GFS had much better precip coverage and was even closer to something bigger than operational GFS. http://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=081ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_081_precip_p24.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=precip_p24&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160301+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.