mitchnick Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 72 hrs. slp right over HAT, but no precip of substance in our area lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 meh, at 60 hrs it just took the low into central Miss/GA from western KY at 54 hrs Vort still digs too much but the reduced confluence allowed a further nw expanse of the front running precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 snizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 snizzle. more like snot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 snizzle. My yard is below freezing by 1am so I get accumulating snizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 this storm is a monument to our winter outside of 2 days in January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Vort still digs too much but the reduced confluence allowed a further nw expanse of the front running precip. Yes, and we are still a good ways out in the weather world. I still like the 1-3" calls.....little impact. Pretty much a "see ya in about 9 months" ending. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 this storm is a monument to our winter outside of 2 days in January Yes. The one hit wonder winter of 2016. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Yes, and we are still a good ways out in the weather world. I still like the 1-3" calls.....little impact. Pretty much a "see ya in about 9 months" ending. Yea, this event has never really had a chance to become something "good". Is what it is. I haven't lost any sleep over it. lol Maybe we get a cat 4 up the bay this summer to keep us entertained. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Yea, this event has never really had a chance to become something "good". Is what it is. I haven't lost any sleep over it. lol Maybe we get a cat 4 up the bay this summer to keep us entertained. Definitely long overdue for one of those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 this storm is a monument to our winter outside of 2 days in January the worst best winter ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Yea, this event has never really had a chance to become something "good". Is what it is. I haven't lost any sleep over it. lol Maybe we get a cat 4 up the bay this summer to keep us entertained. It was nice tracking with you all this winter. I'll check back in around November for Winter 16-17. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Vort still digs too much but the reduced confluence allowed a further nw expanse of the front running precip. so no PA jackpot like GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Virtually all of the strong El Niño's on record for this area (half dozen or so) were either hardly any snow at all, one big storm then nothing or clobbered with snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 so no PA jackpot like GFS? There's a penny slots jackpot of a whopping 1.5 - 2" in PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichmondTarHeel Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 I have faith in the NAM to set things straight. Shame on you weenies jumping off board so quickly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 There's a penny slots jackpot of a whopping 1.5 - 2" in PA. I assumed the consolidation into 1 low would have taken that with it. still think this might surprise on the upside. wish cast for me but at least it is likely the last one of the season so better wish hard.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 It's still a good event as this will not be the classic transfer that hurts DC so often It's pass by and what I mean is that as the low moves eastward from KY it will also be trying to gain latitude so it does not just die and jump but rather most of the precip shield to the north will stay intact you keep saying this but this is a transfer. If it hurts DC is still to be determined but the northern stream low that rides along the arctic boundary in the midwest is NOT going to just blast through the apps and even if it did that would be awful for us because that is tracking west to east at our latitude. That low will get into KY or southern OH and transfer to a low forming down over NC. The problem is the whole system is weak and disorganized and the new low develops down in southern NC instead of up near the NC/VA border where we need it. The coastal takes way too long to get organized and so it does nothing to help. We would be better off if either the northern stream system tracked a bit south and held together, or a better secondary that bombs out quicker. But everything shows a transfer but you keep saying there isn't one. Do you mean you don't believe there will be one? IF so fine but your going against all guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Euro is backing off on strong confluence north of us fairly early (48 hours) compared to 0z. Might not make much difference but it should be a little less squashed this run. It was a small step in the right direction, but the result was actually stuck in between two better solutions for us. The relaxing of the confluence also hurts the WAA snow along the arctic boundary. That is why there is not much of a snow max over PA like the other guidance. Of course it looks like that boundary is north of us so it wouldnt help us much anyways. The coastal looks to have more of a chance to develop and come north in future runs if the trend seen today continues. That might be our better bet. Wanting the arctic bounday to shift south to get into the WAA snows from the northern branch system seems a lower probability given the seasonal trend. Our only hope at more then an inch might be to pray the seasonal trend of more amped in the short term continues and that southern system develops faster and comes north. Its not a HUGE adjustment we need. Get the transfer to be to east central NC instead of wilmington and then get it to track northeast and maybe be 3-4 mb deeper so we have a 995 low sitting just off norfolk instead of 1000 down by hattarras and we are in business. At this point its all we have left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 That seems to cover it all so I presume this is a high confidence statement Sometimes I wonder what goes through your head before you write. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Sometimes I wonder what goes through your head before you write. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Sometimes I wonder what is actually inside your head. I usually wince when I see his is the latest post in a thread because I know it's likely to be said in such an unnecessarily rude or cranky manner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Sometimes I wonder what goes through your head before you write. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Wordy He took his time to explain it to you. It was well written. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Let's hope Opening Day is Sunny with temps in 70s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 SREFS were a little wetter, especially east. Had a more "up the coast" look to it. With the way things have gone, I doubt anybody would be surprised by big changes as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 SREFS were a little wetter, especially east. Had a more "up the coast" look to it. With the way things have gone, I doubt anybody would be surprised by big changes as we get closer. I would be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 NAM is stronger with both the High and the initial Low. The Low is also a little slower... Panel 42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 I would be. Stop posting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Out to hr. 48 the nam has more precip ahead of the low. Looking a little bit more organized this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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