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Friday 3/4 "Last Gasp?" - Model Disco and Obs


DDweatherman

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at this point, who cares

hard to get screwed around here when you're talking March 4

don't get me wrong, I'd like to see the snow, but the fact is, outside of the blizzard, this year has found many ways to not snow, at least in and around I95

I don't know "who cares" but judging from all the posts in here some must a little.  Personally I agree with you.  I am kind of close to moving on on this.  I am giving it another couple model cycles to perhaps trend towards something more then a last pity event, I really have no interest in investing much time on a 1-2" march event.  But I was just providing analysis of what the situation is, not what I want it to be.  It sucks that after getting systems that were moisture bombs over and over when they were cutters that we have a 5 day window and both systems look to be pathetic.   

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What's going on here today?  Can't believe what I've been reading.  For such a snow starved crowd (me included), I'm not sure why everyone's not wishcasting harder!   Has everyone given up!?  Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor??  :lmao:

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Ah, tough to pick up on it sometimes on the internet. Ha...but still, some Meteorologists do think that though..

 

And any meteorologist that thinks/says/types that needs to take a NWP and DA training course.

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Surface still looking pretty marginal for DC.  T-2 inches mostly on grassy/colder surfaces final call.  

 

GFS has a tendency to run a bit warm. Might be right in this case but hard to say. Euro twins run the 32 line along 95 in the wee hours. Seems like a typical UHI and SE locations will struggle with surface and very marginal north and west with the typical colder spots being cold enough to easily accumulate. 

 

This storm has never shown much upside beyond 4" the last few days across all guidance. I've had an imaginary cap of 4" in my brain for max potential. I could still see a lucky location getting that with the bulk of the region in T-3" range. 

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How is that even possible? You are 10 or 11 miles SE of me. You had to pass 30 inches with the blizzard?

 

Nope.  28" with the blizzard and only 1.9" combined with the rest of the winter.  There was a distinct cut-off south of Winchester with that storm.  I was lucky enough to be just on the south fringe of the heavy AM bands that clobbered Winchester and north.  I got noticeably more at my house than there was in Middletown where I work.

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It's still a good event as this will not be the classic transfer that hurts DC so often

It's pass by and what I mean is that as the low moves eastward from KY it will also be trying to gain latitude so it does not just die and jump but rather most of the precip shield to the north will stay intact

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