Amped Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Yeah and just two days ago king euro had 10-14" for the whole area! Models are playing musical chairs. One of the 6 solutions we've seen in the past few days is probably right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 SO if anyone cares, the Canadian pretty much caved...1-3", with 1" around DC and the most to the northeast around Baltimore to Philly with 2-3" It has been showing a light event for our area for days, with the exception of today's 12z run. Overall it has done pretty well with this storm, picking up on it well before the GFS and staying with it even when the GFS and Ukie lost it. From what I can tell, tonight's Ukie now appears to be on the same page as the GGEM and GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Euro surface low is south and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Eps pretty much held serve to its 12z run. Snowfall ticked down slightly to 1-1.5 inches area wide. Has several members that show nice hits for the extreme southern and eastern areas. I see nothing at this time on the EPS or the other models that suggest this will be anything more then a 1-3 inch event at best for the Balt/DC corridor. The EPS, as well as the other ensembles to varying degrees, are moving back to the promising look that was being shown 3+ days ago in regards to the short wave/kicker following the event we are currently tracking. The short wave is digging more and getting better separation and the 500's and surface reflections are responding. Roughly a third of the EPS members are now showing a weak low forming off the coast of which many are in a somewhat favorable location for our locale. IF we see a little more digging and better separation I would not be surprised to see the models start spitting out some interesting solutions in the next day or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 06Z GFS snowfall map held serve for the most part but did take away the heavier band on the southern and eastern sections of the area being shown on the 00Z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Yeah and just two days ago king euro had 10-14" for the whole area! Euro op had fairly consistently been showing heavy snow...for somewhere in the MA. Our area, SE VA. Even yesterday at 12z it had a moderate to heavy snow event for central/eastern VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Is this necessary? Even meteorologists say this all the time. It is absolutely necessary . Any meteorologist that says that needs more training on nwp and data assimilation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 can someone point me to the possible snow thread? all i can find is a discussion about guidance and deterministic blah blah blah.... thanks in advanced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Hey guys I'm not sure but I hear this is nothing more than a 1-3" storm at best...can 20 or 30 people please confirm and repeat continuously Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Hey guys I'm not sure but I hear this is nothing more than a 1-3" storm at best...can 20 or 30 people please confirm and repeat continuously This is looking like a 1 - 3" type of event, at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 I need 0.1" to crack 30" for the season. I'd give it 10% chance I see that much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Hey guys I'm not sure but I hear this is nothing more than a 1-3" storm at best...can 20 or 30 people please confirm and repeat continuously My confidence is moderate that this will be a 0-4" storm somewhere in the forecast area somewhere towards the end of the week leading into this weekend. We need to wait until the impulse out in the Pacific comes on shore and is better sampled for that confidence to move from moderate to fair though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Hey guys I'm not sure but I hear this is nothing more than a 1-3" storm at best...can 20 or 30 people please confirm and repeat continuously I'm thinking more like 0.5" to 2.5". Those 1-3" forecasts are pretty bullish IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 I think this event is shaping up to be the perfect topping to this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Euro for my backyard shows 1" of snow melting by noon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 I think this event is shaping up to be the perfect topping to this winter. Perfect car topping? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Enough snow for one more pity school delay/cancellation for Anne Arundel county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Well thats no fun, NAM looks like it sends the northern stream stuff north of us, and the coastal doesn't send any precip up towards the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 This looks like a 0 to 4" system at best! Would not call it a storm and all the gasp really is is bad breath! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Hey guys I'm not sure but I hear this is nothing more than a 1-3" storm at best...can 20 or 30 people please confirm and repeat continuously 1 - 3" "storm" is an overstatement! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 I need 0.1" to crack 30" for the season. I'd give it 10% chance I see that much. How is that even possible? You are 10 or 11 miles SE of me. You had to pass 30 inches with the blizzard? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Enough snow for one more pity school delay/cancellation for Anne Arundel county. I doubt it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 I think this event is shaping up to be the perfect cartopping to this winter. fixed Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 I'm worried were stuck between on the transfer. The northern stream system will send the best snow along the Arctic boundary to our north. The coastal looks to develop too far south to help. We get the dreaded split dead zone. The nam actually moved towards a better coastal track but not good enough. Problem is if the coaatal gets close but not close enough we get totally screwed stuck in the subsidence just outside the developing Ccb qpf. We could do ok if the northern stream system tracked a bit more south and stronger or if the transfer was more clean and the system was more consolidated but we seem to be moving towards a disjointed system with our area stuck between the areas of best lift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 I'm worried were stuck between on the transfer. The northern stream system will send the best snow along the Arctic boundary to our north. The coastal looks to develop too far south to help. We get the dreaded split dead zone. The nam actually moved towards a better coastal track but not good enough. Problem is if the coaatal gets close but not close enough we get totally screwed stuck in the subsidence just outside the developing Ccb qpf. We could do ok if the northern stream system tracked a bit more south and stronger or if the transfer was more clean and the system was more consolidated but we seem to be moving towards a disjointed system with our area stuck between the areas of best lift. which still could be in the cards for a more south tracking n stream I would think as we still have just a bit of time before the game. But if the 12z suite moves in that direction then flurries will rule the day. Even someone as nutty about winter as me is ready for this to end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 It is absolutely necessary . Any meteorologist that says that needs more training on nwp and data assimilation. My confidence is moderate that this will be a 0-4" storm somewhere in the forecast area somewhere towards the end of the week leading into this weekend. We need to wait until the impulse out in the Pacific comes on shore and is better sampled for that confidence to move from moderate to fair though. Maybe the first problem is the lack of agreement between certified meteorologists lol....Final call-a coating-2" for the entire area mainly on cold stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 I'm worried were stuck between on the transfer. The northern stream system will send the best snow along the Arctic boundary to our north. The coastal looks to develop too far south to help. We get the dreaded split dead zone. The nam actually moved towards a better coastal track but not good enough. Problem is if the coaatal gets close but not close enough we get totally screwed stuck in the subsidence just outside the developing Ccb qpf. We could do ok if the northern stream system tracked a bit more south and stronger or if the transfer was more clean and the system was more consolidated but we seem to be moving towards a disjointed system with our area stuck between the areas of best lift. at this point, who cares hard to get screwed around here when you're talking March 4 don't get me wrong, I'd like to see the snow, but the fact is, outside of the blizzard, this year has found many ways to not snow, at least in and around I95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 at this point, who cares hard to get screwed around here when you're talking March 4 don't get me wrong, I'd like to see the snow, but the fact is, outside of the blizzard, this year has found many ways to not snow, at least in and around I95 Yes, this winter lasted about 48 hours covering one single weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Maybe the first problem is the lack of agreement between certified meteorologists lol....Final call-a coating-2" for the entire area mainly on cold stuff das was completely joking... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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