Ian Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 I'd argue that we're seeing less and less true 'forecasters.' That is, individuals who take all data and meld it with hyperlocal knowledge and experience to come up with the most likely outcome even if it goes against the consensus. Seems like we mostly have a bunch of people who are quick to take models and other sims as gospel and rarely question the data anymore. There's definitely too much model regurgitation vs forecasting these days. You can usually notice local forecasters gain skill as they learn an area. There are plenty of long-timers with no formal meteorological training that are better than mets you see on TV because you can tell they've lived and breathed it. Experience matters... sadly even those with a lot of experience seem to lean on models more and more these days. Granted, it's hard not to because models are generally awesome, but there is still usually a value added that comes with the person if they're doing it right. We're not quite to the point where the Euro is stealing people's jobs just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Heh, I was drafting a response but you pretty much summed it up. Around here almost everything is uncertain always.. and I think that's the case in most of the urban northeast corridor at least, though lesser so the further north you go perhaps. Of course not this year hah. It's fine.. whatever. If people want to just tip toe around and never say anything and no one calls them out more power to them. But I'm not just making stuff up of course. I myself have become much more likely to spend 10 minutes crafting my words so they can be molded into 20 different things after the fact than I once was. Does that make me a better forecaster or a better spinner? I think I've gotten better at the former, but also probably at the latter. I do however tend to roll my eyes at the idea that from d 5-7 or so we can't say anything of value. I think some take that down to 48-72 hours as well really. If you know what you're doing I think you can make fairly unmistakable references/calls from range and still end up doing pretty well compared to average. It's more a matter of whether or not you're willing to be 'totally wrong' at times or not. Many are not. If nothing else the other way gets boring. Who cares if you're right if you waited till the event started to get there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 You're bending over backwards to appear kind. Why we can't be blunt in this world is nauseating to me, not that I'm being critical of you. Botton line, nobody wants to be called out for being wrong and mets have found a way to appear "reasonable and scientific" but they ain't fooling me. As my late father so aptly used to say "shiat or get of the pot." I say make a real forecast and let the chips fall where they may. If you're wrong, oh well. It's worked since the early days of the NWS and the only reason for the change is not to promote the field, but to cover backsides. WxRisk crafted this sort of thing to perfection. Say enough but avoid saying too much and if it is a near verified forecast then take credit and if it's a bust have enough caveats and "low confidences" that you can reference your disclaimers and try to avoid acknowledging the bust Anybody that is trying to sell "I have low confidence in the sun not rising tomorrow" is not a good resource Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 GFS looks slightly weaker with low at 66 hr compared to last run...otherwise, not much difference. Mainly noise. Should be very similar to 18z and 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 WxRisk crafted this sort of thing to perfection. Say enough but avoid saying too much and if it is a near verified forecast then take credit and if it's a bust have enough caveats and "low confidences" that you can reference your disclaimers and try to avoid acknowledging the bust Anybody that is trying to sell "I have low confidence in the sun not rising tomorrow" is not a good resource JB is the same way! Reminds me of someone trying to diagnose a car problem. Say 50 things that could be the issue and when diagnosed you were "right" because you mentioned what was said! So tell every option about possible weather and you are always right! My motto is "There is always a 100% chance of weather!" and I am always right! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 GFS is roughly the same position with everything, just weaker, waiting for GGEM to come in way different. 1-3" of snow 00z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Call me when the product or resource that you wish to distribute is something other than "low" in nature because what you are really trying to sell is a package deal of correct if confirmed while avoiding incorrect if not confirmed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Pretty much 2" for all of us on GFS...lollies of 3" but no reason to hug snow maps. Outta here by 7AM basically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Afternoon AFD from LWX Ugh. I died a little inside after reading that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 JB is the same way! Reminds me of someone trying to diagnose a car problem. Say 50 things that could be the issue and when diagnosed you were "right" because you mentioned what was said! So tell every option about possible weather and you are always right! My motto is "There is always a 100% chance of weather!" and I am always right! It's a weather hustle and I do not believe that the good people at the NWS are involved with that sort of thing despite some comments here that would indicate otherwise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 WxRisk crafted this sort of thing to perfection. Say enough but avoid saying too much and if it is a near verified forecast then take credit and if it's a bust have enough caveats and "low confidences" that you can reference your disclaimers and try to avoid acknowledging the bust Anybody that is trying to sell "I have low confidence in the sun not rising tomorrow" is not a good resource You can pick at DT for being arrogant and brash. But the guy knows more about east coast winter storms then a lot of very respected meta and there is no denying it. Does he have a tendency lately to hug the euro? Sure. But thats not necessarily a bad thing considering the euro is the best model ever made. Back in the old days he couldnt be beat when it came to winter storms though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Is this a storm thread? I'm not sure what I'm supposed to post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Is this a storm thread? I'm not sure what I'm supposed to post Flurry thread! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 It's a weather hustle and I do not believe that the good people at the NWS are involved with that sort of thing despite some comments here that would indicate otherwise Much of the NWS is transforming into uncertainty communication/risk assessment. It's not only in weather but it's everywhere. You guys focus on Sterling alone but there are 122 NWS offices, 6 regional headquarters, 1 national headquarter and a dozen national centers. It goes well beyond just forecasting for your backyard and our partners and customers are decision makers ranging from sailboat hobbyists to the coast guard, airlines, fire managers, EM's, federal gov, agriculture and you name it. We serve a broad range of people. Even Mets that work for hedge funds or energy companies also have to tell their clients a range of possible scenarios and what their confidence is. Would you make a 2 million dollar decision based on one single "high confidence" forecast? No you wouldn't. You would want to hear several. Why are there ensembles in modeling? Why do we need 20 ensemble members...its to show how certain/uncertain the deterministic run is! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 WxRisk crafted this sort of thing to perfection. Say enough but avoid saying too much and if it is a near verified forecast then take credit and if it's a bust have enough caveats and "low confidences" that you can reference your disclaimers and try to avoid acknowledging the bust Anybody that is trying to sell "I have low confidence in the sun not rising tomorrow" is not a good resource Yea if there's anybody where intentional finesse and language go together it's DT. What a horrible post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1S Four Corners Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Long time wx watcher much prefer deterministic forecast i.e. 1-3 or 4-8 versus CWG boom bust between 1 and 12. Just wait until you are confident even if its 24 hours b/f that is fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 lol yeah the CMC is definitely worth considering as a valid model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 lol yeah the CMC is definitely worth considering as a valid model. Cape cod weenies do not approve of this post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Imagine a confidence forecast only to Ike in June, 1944. I think it's a bunch of malarkey and ground cover. Whatever. Time for the 0z model suite... Weather was a factor in D day timing and had impact in the first wave airborne drop. Ike actually strikes me as the type of guy that would ask for a confidence forecast more so than deterministic, given the consequences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Everything seems to be moving toward the Euro twins. Things that are not shocking for 1000. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Cape cod weenies do not approve of this post. lol, saw a tweet from up there somewhere talking about how it held from last run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyDabbundo Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 "the storm isn't sampled yet, still has time to come NW" -The NYC forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 "the storm isn't sampled yet, still has time to come NW" -The NYC forum Is this necessary? Even meteorologists say this all the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Everything seems to be moving toward the Euro twins. Things that are not shocking for 1000. Yeah and just two days ago king euro had 10-14" for the whole area! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Yeah and just two days ago king euro had 10-14" for the whole area! Sure but that was basically a week out. They might be converging at this point anyway though models tonight look quite a bit like the Euro last few runs. Plus I don't think the new Euro ever showed the big hit the old one did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 SO if anyone cares, the Canadian pretty much caved...1-3", with 1" around DC and the most to the northeast around Baltimore to Philly with 2-3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 The pattern is most supportive of a quick hitting 1-3" event. Fortunately for us it will at least happen at night with no sun angle issues. Fresh coating of snow Friday AM then it's gone by Friday night lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 The pattern is most supportive of a quick hitting 1-3" event. Fortunately for us it will at least happen at night with no sun angle issues. Fresh coating of snow Friday AM then it's gone by Friday night lol. Pretty much. Essentially was always the case. Im just hoping it doesnt effect flights out of BWI Friday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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