BristowWx Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 The two low look could be bad if South robs north hopefully doesn't happen that way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 The two low look could be bad if South robs north hopefully doesn't happen that way I wouldn't give a nam solution a second thought beyond 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichmondTarHeel Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 LWX upgraded their confidence level of a Winter Storm threat for Thurs Night - Friday to the middle level for East of the blue ridge. http://www.weather.gov/lwx/winter#wsoutlook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 To my untrained eye, the 18z GFS pretty similar to the 12z, a little less QPF Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 18z gfs http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2016022918&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=108 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 So the initial low follows the baroclinic zone east into the Ohio valley. Then it transfers but that's where I just don't get the progression. With a low over northern ky why is it jumping all the way down to near Wilmington? More typical transfer would be to somewhere in eastern nc to southeast va. Then the system is more consolidated. That jump literally tears the storm apart. I know there is a boundary there but seems there is a case for the cmc idea of not jumping down that far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Cherry's Jacket Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 I'm going to need be sold on the idea that this isn't just a cold rain event, primarily, with maybe a little mixing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 even with the nice cold air damming signal, temps are probably marginal for sure, but the way it's modeled right now as a primarily nighttime event maximizes our chances for snow. I'm going to need be sold on the idea that this isn't just a cold rain event, primarily, with maybe a little mixing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 amen, book it up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Cherry's Jacket Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 even with the nice cold air damming signal, temps are probably marginal for sure, but the way it's modeled right now as a primarily nighttime event maximizes our chances for snow. Yeah, I was thinking the time frame was probably the best thing going for it, lest we all break out the sun angle posts. Soundings will be interesting when we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Afternoon AFD from LWX Excuse making in the opening sentence is no way to do things Kinda like the "low confidence" weasel disclaimer on a forecast. Do a forecast that you are confident about or do not do one At the least this will be a pass by event which usually is good to dc on order of 3-4" If it is turning more north than just ene before it gets east of our longitude then we should get more but it can mix also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 This is not a jump event. The low stays primary and just moves eastward This looks like a 30.15 Baro for a good while so that is neither suppressive not too mild It does not matter much what the models do from now on. The 4-5 day in advance information for a set up like this is probably the best as it seems to not have the microscopic aspects to it that allow things to change so dramatically in the 3 day or less samplings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Small event no matter what! 1 to 4" seems max if that! Not feeling it! Like feeling matter! LOL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Small event no matter what! 1 to 4" seems max if that! Not feeling it! Like feeling matter! LOL! Snow Feelings Matter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 This is not a jump event. The low stays primary and just moves eastward This looks like a 30.15 Baro for a good while so that is neither suppressive not too mild It does not matter much what the models do from now on. The 4-5 day in advance information for a set up like this is probably the best as it seems to not have the microscopic aspects to it that allow things to change so dramatically in the 3 day or less samplings microscopic aspects??? Did you mean meso scale?ETA: or perhaps micro scale if your talking features less then 10 kilometers in scale but not sure how that would impact this much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Biggest difference I could find between 18z GFS (decent I guess) and 12z GEM (kaboom) has to do with the Subtropical jet. It much more interaction in 12z GEM but with GFS it kinda sorta interacts but mostly just rages to the south. GEM: GFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 NAVGEM on board...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 NAVGEM on board...lol I'll sign up for some of that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Excuse making in the opening sentence is no way to do things Kinda like the "low confidence" weasel disclaimer on a forecast. Do a forecast that you are confident about or do not do one At the least this will be a pass by event which usually is good to dc on order of 3-4" If it is turning more north than just ene before it gets east of our longitude then we should get more but it can mix also Lol...forecasting is about expressing confidence...whether it be low, medium or high. Decision makers need to know what our confidence is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 I'll sign up for some of that Thats the 12z. 18Z is still on board . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Thats the 12z. 18Z is still on board . Thanks, I honestly have no idea when this model runs lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 I'll sign up for some of that Same here, if only! Of course, it is the NAVGEM, so who knows... In all seriousness, this looks to be shaping up as a 1-3"/2-4" type of deal given all the current guidance. Good timing with a lot of the precip falling overnight Friday into early Saturday morning, too. Maybe we can luck out with something even more significant, but I won't even think of going there unless there are real indications of that. Either way, cannot really complain much, especially since this looked nearly DOA just a couple of days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Same here, if only! Of course, it is the NAVGEM, so who knows... In all seriousness, this looks to be shaping up as a 1-3"/2-4" type of deal given all the current guidance. Good timing with a lot of the precip falling overnight Friday into early Saturday morning, too. Maybe we can luck out with something even more significant, but I won't even think of going there unless there are real indications of that. Either way, cannot really complain much, especially since this looked nearly DOA just a couple of days ago. Thursday night into Friday I thought Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Thursday night into Friday I thought Same here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Para euro is weak sauce. 18z gefs continues to be very supportive of a 1-3/2-4 event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 GEFS support a 1-3/2-4" event. ninja'd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 GEFS support a 1-3/2-4" event. Thanks for posting this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 GEFS support a 1-3/2-4" event. ninja'd I'll go out on a limb and say somewhere between a e10 and e19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Thursday night into Friday I thought Same here Sorry, my apologies...yes, meant Thursday night into Friday morning! (ETA: I blame the leap-day screwing up what I said!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 I'll go out on a limb and say somewhere between a e10 and e19 Very safe bet, I'm sure that will be correct! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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