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Friday 3/4 "Last Gasp?" - Model Disco and Obs


DDweatherman

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So the initial low follows the baroclinic zone east into the Ohio valley. Then it transfers but that's where I just don't get the progression. With a low over northern ky why is it jumping all the way down to near Wilmington? More typical transfer would be to somewhere in eastern nc to southeast va. Then the system is more consolidated. That jump literally tears the storm apart. I know there is a boundary there but seems there is a case for the cmc idea of not jumping down that far.

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   even with the nice cold air damming signal, temps are probably marginal for sure, but the way it's modeled right now as a primarily nighttime event maximizes our chances for snow.

 

 

I'm going to need be sold on the idea that this isn't just a cold rain event, primarily, with maybe a little mixing.  

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   even with the nice cold air damming signal, temps are probably marginal for sure, but the way it's modeled right now as a primarily nighttime event maximizes our chances for snow.

Yeah, I was thinking the time frame was probably the best thing going for it, lest we all break out the sun angle posts.  Soundings will be interesting when we get closer.  

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Afternoon AFD from LWX

Excuse making in the opening sentence is no way to do things

Kinda like the "low confidence" weasel disclaimer on a forecast. Do a forecast that you are confident about or do not do one

At the least this will be a pass by event which usually is good to dc on order of 3-4"

If it is turning more north than just ene before it gets east of our longitude then we should get more but it can mix also

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This is not a jump event. The low stays primary and just moves eastward

This looks like a 30.15 Baro for a good while so that is neither suppressive not too mild

It does not matter much what the models do from now on. The 4-5 day in advance information for a set up like this is probably the best as it seems to not have the microscopic aspects to it that allow things to change so dramatically in the 3 day or less samplings

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This is not a jump event. The low stays primary and just moves eastward

This looks like a 30.15 Baro for a good while so that is neither suppressive not too mild

It does not matter much what the models do from now on. The 4-5 day in advance information for a set up like this is probably the best as it seems to not have the microscopic aspects to it that allow things to change so dramatically in the 3 day or less samplings

microscopic aspects??? Did you mean meso scale?

ETA: or perhaps micro scale if your talking features less then 10 kilometers in scale but not sure how that would impact this much.

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Excuse making in the opening sentence is no way to do things

Kinda like the "low confidence" weasel disclaimer on a forecast. Do a forecast that you are confident about or do not do one

At the least this will be a pass by event which usually is good to dc on order of 3-4"

If it is turning more north than just ene before it gets east of our longitude then we should get more but it can mix also

Lol...forecasting is about expressing confidence...whether it be low, medium or high. Decision makers need to know what our confidence is.

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I'll sign up for some of that

 

Same here, if only!  Of course, it is the NAVGEM, so who knows...

 

In all seriousness, this looks to be shaping up as a 1-3"/2-4" type of deal given all the current guidance.  Good timing with a lot of the precip falling overnight Friday into early Saturday morning, too.  Maybe we can luck out with something even more significant, but I won't even think of going there unless there are real indications of that.  Either way, cannot really complain much, especially since this looked nearly DOA just a couple of days ago.

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Same here, if only! Of course, it is the NAVGEM, so who knows...

In all seriousness, this looks to be shaping up as a 1-3"/2-4" type of deal given all the current guidance. Good timing with a lot of the precip falling overnight Friday into early Saturday morning, too. Maybe we can luck out with something even more significant, but I won't even think of going there unless there are real indications of that. Either way, cannot really complain much, especially since this looked nearly DOA just a couple of days ago.

Thursday night into Friday I thought

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