Jebman Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Precip is approaching from the south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 I am expecting a light coating of snow on the car top TOPS - But as always, I am optimistic of perhaps squeaking out an inch or so. I NEVER give up on winter. EVER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Again, if you are comparing to prior to the 12Z run, sure. But this 18Z run is nearly the same as the 12Z run unless your source is different to both what Ian posted and what TT shows. My asking had nothing to do with whether it looked good or not. I was just wondering what you were looking at because it seemed like you were looking at some very different output that wasn't already shown on the 12Z run. What I wrote above is what I saw. Even putting the models aside just take a look outside. For me it's 39/16 (IAD last hour). Very dry air. Weaker northern stream system. Surface low further south and east. If this advisory stays up I'd be shocked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Is this a high confidence forecast? Like I told you, it would not be ky to central nc and off the coast, it's way further north in central va and wv and what happens next is unknown. I must have missed your forecast along with the rest of the low confidence crowd did nothing but model regurgitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 It's a high confidence jumper. 30.25 jumper transfer. Incoming incoming KY jumper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Qaanaaq Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Snowing moderately hard - ground is covered including the back deck, every branch in every tree and shrub. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Within a 1-3" range is probably closer to the 1". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Like I told you, it would not be ky to central nc and off the coast, it's way further north in central va and wv and what happens next is unknown. I must have missed your forecast along with the rest of the low confidence crowd did nothing but model regurgitation. yea but if you have a high confidence forecast and are always wrong that's worse than copying models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 508 PM EST THU MAR 3 2016 DCZ001-MDZ003>006-011-013-014-016>018-502>508-VAZ028-030-031- 052>057-501-502-505-506-WVZ050>053-504-040615- /O.CON.KLWX.WW.Y.0009.160304T0300Z-160304T1500Z/ DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL- NORTHERN BALTIMORE-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL- CHARLES-ST. MARYS-CALVERT-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY- NORTHWEST MONTGOMERY-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MONTGOMERY- NORTHWEST HOWARD-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST HOWARD-NORTHWEST HARFORD- SOUTHEAST HARFORD-FREDERICK VA-WARREN-CLARKE- PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX- ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA- KING GEORGE-NORTHERN FAUQUIER-SOUTHERN FAUQUIER-WESTERN LOUDOUN- EASTERN LOUDOUN-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON- EASTERN MINERAL- 508 PM EST THU MAR 3 2016 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY... * PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...AROUND ONE INCH...TWO TO THREE INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN MARYLAND. * TIMING...LIGHT SNOW IN BANDS LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. LOCALLY MODERATE SNOW SPREADS ACROSS SOUTHERN MARYLAND AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. SNOW TAPERS OFF ALONG EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 FRIDAY MORNING. * IMPACTS...THE SNOW WILL CAUSE SLUSHY AND LOCALLY SNOW COVERED ROADS...RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. SNOW COVERED ROADS EXPECTED IN SOUTHERN MARYLAND. * WINDS...SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...FALLING INTO THE LOW 30S THROUGH THIS EVENING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 508 PM EST THU MAR 3 2016 DCZ001-MDZ003>006-011-013-014-016>018-502>508-VAZ028-030-031- 052>057-501-502-505-506-WVZ050>053-504-040615- /O.CON.KLWX.WW.Y.0009.160304T0300Z-160304T1500Z/ DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL- NORTHERN BALTIMORE-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL- CHARLES-ST. MARYS-CALVERT-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY- NORTHWEST MONTGOMERY-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MONTGOMERY- NORTHWEST HOWARD-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST HOWARD-NORTHWEST HARFORD- SOUTHEAST HARFORD-FREDERICK VA-WARREN-CLARKE- PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX- ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA- KING GEORGE-NORTHERN FAUQUIER-SOUTHERN FAUQUIER-WESTERN LOUDOUN- EASTERN LOUDOUN-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON- EASTERN MINERAL- 508 PM EST THU MAR 3 2016 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY... * PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...AROUND ONE INCH...TWO TO THREE INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN MARYLAND. * TIMING...LIGHT SNOW IN BANDS LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. LOCALLY MODERATE SNOW SPREADS ACROSS SOUTHERN MARYLAND AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. SNOW TAPERS OFF ALONG EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 FRIDAY MORNING. * IMPACTS...THE SNOW WILL CAUSE SLUSHY AND LOCALLY SNOW COVERED ROADS...RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. SNOW COVERED ROADS EXPECTED IN SOUTHERN MARYLAND. * WINDS...SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...FALLING INTO THE LOW 30S THROUGH THIS EVENING. That's more representative of what is happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 -SN 38...I love snow...wish this event was going to be better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Needbiggerboat - excellent avatar pic. +10000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Within a 1-3" range is probably closer to the 1". Is this a high confidence forecast? Are you basing that on the jumper jumping or just regurgitating model output? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 nice light snow falling. Temp is 36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Is this a high confidence forecast? Are you basing that on the jumper jumping or just regurgitating model output? It's the 30.25 jumper gaining latitude well north over w-va. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 The low is currently just northeast of New Orleans and will track across South Georgia, south Carrolina, and south of hatteras. (Which is way south of KY northeast through central NC (which is impossible since nc is SOUTH of ky) not north). Sorry back to our regularly scheduled programming free from the burdens of any geographic factual accuracy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 It's the 30.25 jumper gaining latitude well north over w-va. Ah, using the Tenman methodology of forecasting. Never use it myself. Never could figure out how far the jumper was going to jump and at what angle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Raven94 Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 22Z HRRR 21z RAP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 22Z HRRR Columbia, MD pummeled! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 This is one of the most prolific virga snowstorms I have ever experienced in years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Gonna get my coating on my deck this evening at this rate! But gotta get a few degrees colder! Down to 34 Nice snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Bursts of small flakes making it down. on and off for the last 30 or 40 minutes. Mostly off though. 37.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Bursts of small flakes making it down. on and off for the last 30 or 40 minutes. Mostly off though. 37.0 Same here. Trying to make most of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Flurries/light snow. This one does kinda suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Visibility down to less than 1/8 mile here. Oops, sorry. Forgot about it being dark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Angela T Posted March 4, 2016 Share Posted March 4, 2016 Latest HRRR is decent. Would it be possible to post this to include Richmond? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted March 4, 2016 Share Posted March 4, 2016 Pummeling in-progress. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted March 4, 2016 Share Posted March 4, 2016 36 degrees, 24 DP with snow. Some of the flakes are a third of an inch across Precip is starting as snow, not rain/snow mix Damn weatherbug temps aint worth a damn, I always have to add 3-5 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 4, 2016 Share Posted March 4, 2016 Visibility down to less than 1/8 mile here. Oops, sorry. Forgot about it being dark. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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