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Friday 3/4 "Last Gasp?" - Model Disco and Obs


DDweatherman

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36 down here in west OC with heavy clouds RAP-HRRR are continually up ticking snow totals here and are showing several hours of very heavy snow tonight. Was forecasted to be 42 per GFS 41-NAM today and hit 37. HRRR drops everyone to near 32 tonight Salisbury might go to 30 under the heavy snow.

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I'm literally cracking up over this. What else can you do over such a whacko winter...of course that's not counting the blizzard. Apart from the blizzard it was no different than my days forecasting in Albuquerque where it would snow everywhere around you but not in town. 90% of wind directions were downslope lol.

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I'm literally cracking up over this. What else can you do over such a whacko winter...of course that's not counting the blizzard. Apart from the blizzard it was no different than my days forecasting in Albuquerque where it would snow everywhere around you but not in town. 90% of wind directions were downslope lol.

 

When I saw your post about the GFS, and then went to check it myself, I admit I kind of laughed as well.  All one can do.  GFS takes the low from off the SC coast, to well east of the OBX area, and on out to sea.  I mentioned this before but yeah, outside the blizzard it was a pretty "meh" winter and quite frustrating to be honest.  But simply because of that spectacular event, I cannot call this a fail of a season.  Plus we did have some legitimate cold air.  All after a record warm December.

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So what was it that made you laugh about the 18Z run? It's almost the same as the 12Z run...

00-06z is much lighter than prior runs, 06-12z used to be the best period and now it's zilch from NOVA south. Low is further south and east and the northern stream is just weak. Plus all the dry air over us right now. Not looking good.

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When I saw your post about the GFS, and then went to check it myself, I admit I kind of laughed as well. All one can do. GFS takes the low from off the SC coast, to well east of the OBX area, and on out to sea. I mentioned this before but yeah, outside the blizzard it was a pretty "meh" winter and quite frustrating to be honest. But simply because of that spectacular event, I cannot call this a fail of a season. Plus we did have some legitimate cold air. All after a record warm December.

Well stated and much agreed.

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Is this a high confidence forecast?

The contours once the low is at the coast are nne-ne move indicating

In the overall its still very encouraging for a mild to moderate event

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00-06z is much lighter than prior runs, 06-12z used to be the best period and now it's zilch from NOVA south. Low is further south and east and the northern stream is just weak. Plus all the dry air over us right now. Not looking good.

Again, if you are comparing to prior to the 12Z run, sure. But this 18Z run is nearly the same as the 12Z run unless your source is different to both what Ian posted and what TT shows.

My asking had nothing to do with whether it looked good or not. I was just wondering what you were looking at because it seemed like you were looking at some very different output that wasn't already shown on the 12Z run.

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