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Friday 3/4 "Last Gasp?" - Model Disco and Obs

DDweatherman

By DDweatherman,
in Mid Atlantic

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cae

cae

Posted
Posted

outside day 5 or so everything is pretty iffy. once the euro locks on for a few runs its usually right. pretty sure the para euro never really slammed us either like the soon to be old op did for a few runs.

 

I think the Euro only showed a good hit for the DC area for two runs, on Sunday and Sunday night.  Weathebell says they didn't receive any para Euro data for those runs.  Did another site have it?

 

The Euro and para Euro are great, but no model is perfect.  I'm not sure either one saw the southern MD jackpot for this year's "President's Day" storm. 

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Interstate

Interstate

Posted
Posted

I think the Euro only showed a good hit for the DC area for two runs, on Sunday and Sunday night.  Weathebell says they didn't receive any para Euro data for those runs.  Did another site have it?

 

The Euro and para Euro are great, but no model is perfect.  I'm not sure either one saw the southern MD jackpot for this year's "President's Day" storm. 

 

I am pretty sure that the GFS and NAM both had the jackpot south of DC

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted

Euro came in drier. Winwxluvr might be right about 1"+ being an outside shot.

I've kinda half expected this to fall apart once I realized we weren't getting into the developing coastal. The qpf here was mostly from what was left of the northern stream wave but that's been trending weaker for days now and the minute the coastal takes over it will kill lift around the developing Ccb banding. Models are almost always overdone with the light precip they show around the edges but outside the main band of qpf. That's why I said with the coastal being closer then the runs that had it really squashed we needed to get into the previp field from that or we risked the marginal even becoming a non event. Seems consensus is around .1 qpf but some of that is wasted as temps cool this evening so I'm not sure why there is still a running forecast of 1-3. A coating to an inch seems more likely with perhaps 2" in spots. I think sat night might be more exciting at this point.
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gymengineer

gymengineer

Posted
Posted

I've kinda half expected this to fall apart once I realized we weren't getting into the developing coastal. The qpf here was mostly from what was left of the northern stream wave but that's been trending weaker for days now and the minute the coastal takes over it will kill lift around the developing Ccb banding. Models are almost always overdone with the light precip they show around the edges but outside the main band of qpf. That's why I said with the coastal being closer then the runs that had it really squashed we needed to get into the previp field from that or we risked the marginal even becoming a non event. Seems consensus is around .1 qpf but some of that is wasted as temps cool this evening so I'm not sure why there is still a running forecast of 1-3. A coating to an inch seems more likely with perhaps 2" in spots. I think sat night might be more exciting at this point.

I think 1-2" is fine as a forecast based on the entire 12Z model suite. If it busts, so be it.  

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BristowWx

BristowWx

Posted
Posted

So what are we looking at...about a 1-3"er? Can someone make a call please

I just don't see it.  1-1.5"er maybe.  just looks so dry and with some loss to rain.  I hope to be wrong.  maybe the last 18z runs will be more encouraging.  Intellicast would have you believe something big on the way. 

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mitchnick

mitchnick

Posted
Posted

Euro even yanked the 6-8" amounts from SE VA it showed on the 0Z run, now leaving them with 3"+

that was brutal to those folks

 

EDIT: I'll add, that it's cr@p like this that the Euro has been doing all season; maybe not in our back yards, but near us.

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MDstorm

MDstorm

Posted
Posted

Euro even yanked the 6-8" amounts from SE VA it showed on the 0Z run, now leaving them with 3"+

that was brutal to those folks

 

EDIT: I'll add, that it's cr@p like this that the Euro has been doing all season; maybe not in our back yards, but near us.

Haven't you heard----the new Euro is way more accurate than the old Euro.   ;)

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted

Euro even yanked the 6-8" amounts from SE VA it showed on the 0Z run, now leaving them with 3"+

that was brutal to those folks

EDIT: I'll add, that it's cr@p like this that the Euro has been doing all season; maybe not in our back yards, but near us.

I have noticed over many years a weird phenomenon where the euro sometimes throws an erroneous dry run out right before game time. It's been something ive noticed for years and it's odd that it would get a 6-12 hour forecast wrong after nailing it days out but it's something I've noticed several times. Some examples off the top of my head, there was an overrunning event in 2004 the euro had shown about .75 qpf all week then the night of cut it to .4. We got 8" here. In 2010 it was the best overall in the feb 10 miller b showing a nice jackpot in my area for days then it totally lost it the night before. Showed a total of .6 qpf after days of runs around 1.5. I got around 30" lol. Even this year it did it up here for the early February storm where after accurately showing about .5 qpf up here the day before it cut my qpf to .3 the night before and I ended up with 8". These are just off the top of my head. It's not a big deal as I've learned not to trust a very late last second adjustment unless there is valid support for it but I've witnessed it.
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Ian

Ian

Posted
Posted

I've found if you go with the model that shows the least snow most of the time you will be right. Just happens that is the euro more often then not.

the GFS has a wrong bias as well so when you factor that in you can usually get a decent answer.

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WinterWxLuvr

WinterWxLuvr

Posted
Posted

I think you won't stray far from the path if you take the driest model and then go 10-20% drier.  Out here that works pretty well.  As always, there are exceptions.

 

I'm talking from beyond 72 hours.  They seem to always keep trending drier.  By the time we get to within about 24, I don't think we get too many huge shifts in either direction.

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BristowWx

BristowWx

Posted
Posted

Gettin to the fun part now

It's already gained the latitude that I steadfastly referenced, in fact even a bit more

Still showing the classic signs to me of a pass by storm and not a jump and coastal redevelopment but that has yet to be confirmed.

What's a pass by storm?

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BaltimoreWxGuy

BaltimoreWxGuy

Posted
Posted

Gettin to the fun part now

It's already gained the latitude that I steadfastly referenced, in fact even a bit more

Still showing the classic signs to me of a pass by storm and not a jump and coastal redevelopment but that has yet to be confirmed.

You're too much man...what exactly are you expecting from this?

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