Interstate Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 This was never going to be much of an event as evidenced by the 18 pages of posts so far. Getting 2 inches in March is an event in my book. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 this is a bit much. It's obviously not going to be a big event, but there is pretty solid model agreement for over 0.10" liquid area-wide. If you want to set that thrill threshold at 2", I'll give you that. Agree...there's no point in being overly cynical. This was really never looking like a big event other than some hints/teases on a couple of runs. Expecting on the order of ~2" is very reasonable. (ETA: Note that DCA's average snow for March is 1.3", just to add a bit of perspective) You guys are more than welcome to tell me I was wrong after it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichmondTarHeel Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 What's with all the hand-wringing over this? Last night when I went to bed the general consensus was 1-3" for our area and potentially more South from Fredricksburg to Richmond. I wake up this morning and everything looks about the same, but people are disappointed? Regardless, I think this one will be fun to track. Everyone will be freaking out if this thing makes any slight moves North or South. If we can manage more than 2.5" imby it will be the 2nd biggest event of the winter for me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 You guys are more than welcome to tell me I was wrong after it happens. Never claimed you were, or will be, wrong. Just that I think it was overly cynical to assume we'll automatically be low-balled here at this point. Likewise, I'm not guaranteeing 2", but saying that's a reasonable expectation given what the guidance has overall shown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Good call on this period holding alot of potential for a winter event. You never called for a significant event tho the storm will bomb, just too far East. IMO you did a solid job pinpointing the threat and we are all at least getting 'something' out of it, even if just mood flakes for some areas. thank you. you can't possibly predict exact outcomes when looking at ranges beyond 7 days. It's all about identifying threat Windows to me. Maybe some can pinpoint track and strength from 10 days but I won't pretend to be that good. I held on to this window when things looked bad because just like when a storm looks good but the larger teleconnections don't support it we know it will trend worse the opposite is true here. But I was wrong about a longer window after this because the PAC totally broke down and I didn't expect that. Live and learn. Shane this window is kinda underperforming mostly because of lack of spacing. In March we don't even need much space but two vorts come in squashed only 36 hours apart and behind the cutter the other day. Spread them all out another 24 hours or just have one vort instead of two and we could have had a different ending. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Getting 2 inches in March is an event in my book.Try a different book. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Sticking with T that we lose T to warm ground. Somehow a fitting end to this whole thing ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 I don't know why people are so worried about losing some to ground temps. It's pretty chilly today and most of the precip will fall at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 I don't know why people are so worried about losing some to ground temps. It's pretty chilly today and most of the precip will fall at night. Well its a light precipitation event, so dynamics really wont be there...and while yes, its chilly but 40 and sun still warms the ground....the HRRR doesnt have temps dropping all that fast tonight either, still 37 at 11PM which is around possible onset of precip, so it is possible the first .05-1 of fallen precip doesnt do much, particularly to the pavement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Meanwhile, the GFS looks blah, but at this point what do we expect....my over under bar is 1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 What time does the bar...errr I mean last gasp OBS thread open? I'm ready to radar hallucinate! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Never claimed you were, or will be, wrong. Just that I think it was overly cynical to assume we'll automatically be low-balled here at this point. Likewise, I'm not guaranteeing 2", but saying that's a reasonable expectation given what the guidance has overall shown. Hard not to be. With the exception of the big storm, every event out here has been less than every location throughout the region. This is another event where the best dynamics are east and south of my location. It's not a big deal. March isn't a great time for snow anyway. But I feel very confident that whatever falls (precip), it will be much less here. Just facts. Not cynicism. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 It is a shame we have rapid cyclogenesis though and its just 6-12 hours too late/too far east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 we should buy the old euro and can the gFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 GFS/RGEM/NAM/4km NAM all 1-2"... sounds good to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 we should buy the old euro and can the gFS Yeah, the EURO had some games I think back day 5 or 6, but once it caught on, its been solid...Id mark this one as a euro score again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Yeah, the EURO had some games I think back day 5 or 6, but once it caught on, its been solid...Id mark this one as a euro score again outside day 5 or so everything is pretty iffy. once the euro locks on for a few runs its usually right. pretty sure the para euro never really slammed us either like the soon to be old op did for a few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Yeah, the EURO had some games I think back day 5 or 6, but once it caught on, its been solid...Id mark this one as a euro score again Totally agree. It had some minor wobbles the last 6 runs but has been steady as a rock. Unsurprisingly all other guidance now looks like the euro. From what I've seen so far, the para euro is pretty awesome through d3-4. Especially inside of 3. I'm not going to bet against it unless there's a compelling reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Meanwhile, the GFS looks blah, but at this point what do we expect....my over under bar is 1" Not even a tenth of an inch total precip here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 no one watching weekend clipper? seems more robust on NAM/GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 no one watching weekend clipper? seems more robust on NAM/GFS I have been but didn't want to bring it up. with this event seeming to trend worse each run I figured no one was interested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 no one watching weekend clipper? seems more robust on NAM/GFS actually pretty nice looking across the board. maybe this is why 3/99 has been showing up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 3, 2016 Author Share Posted March 3, 2016 actually pretty nice looking across the board. maybe this is why 3/99 has been showing up. If that holds let someone else start a thread. As the song goes, I ain't as good as I once was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 What time does the bar...errr I mean last gasp OBS thread open? I'm ready to radar hallucinate! Use this thread for obs/nowcasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 If that holds let someone else start a thread. As the song goes, I ain't as good as I once was. its got some low level problems to deal with heh. but a good track... maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Use this thread for obs/nowcasts. Sure. OK, after a nice cloud covered and cool am mostly in the 20's, the sun has broke out here in last hour and we've zoomed up to 36.6, (maybe the saving grace dew point 20.8). If the clouds stay away another hour I see 40 being touched, then the battle is on to get back to a 32/32 wet bulb for anything reasonable to happen (1-2 / 2-4 inches) but we shall see......winds have swung around to the ESE/SE at 3-8 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 RAP looks terrible, as in no precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 RAP looks terrible, as in no precip HRRR right there with it thru 1am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Totally agree. It had some minor wobbles the last 6 runs but has been steady as a rock. Unsurprisingly all other guidance now looks like the euro. From what I've seen so far, the para euro is pretty awesome through d3-4. Especially inside of 3. I'm not going to bet against it unless there's a compelling reason. The soon-to-be-op Euro appears to be raising the bar yet again. Not sure why any would go against it at this point, especially inside of 3 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 The soon-to-be-op Euro appears to be raising the bar yet again. Not sure why any would go against it at this point, especially inside of 3 days. because we like snow and want to root for the model that shows the best solution even if we know its wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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