SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Too bad srefs are useless. They bumped back up to .5" qpf around the cities. Other than them, this has become another crash and burn storm. I don't get the negativity. This had minor/marginal event written all over it since the weekend. If we get an inch or two, great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 So what are we thinking...a general 1-3" snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 I don't get the negativity. This had minor/marginal event written all over it since the weekend. If we get an inch or two, great.Not negative. Just not excited over an event that will be melted before the end of the day. Hence, it would have been nice to have a better event as our last one of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 So what are we thinking...a general 1-3" snow...Probably an inch or less for most areas if you believe the Euro and an inch or two on the other models (other than the srefs.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Hard not to go w the euro. I'll be surprised if the ground is covered when I wake up tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 I don't get the negativity. This had minor/marginal event written all over it since the weekend. If we get an inch or two, great. I agree. One more winter morning before we break out the shorts is a bonus and a nice ending to a great season. Looks like a general 1-3". That should get me near 30" for my backyard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Hard not to go w the euro. I'll be surprised if the ground is covered when I wake up tomorrow. just checked. Oh man.. maybe .1 of qpf, over 12 hours. hahahaha SnowTv at best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 00Z runs stay the course. Some subtle changes that argue for a northern trend yet others that argue southward. Pretty much a wash overall. Ironically the shortwave following this current event that I was on about for days about having potential is helping to ruin this event for our locale. Never got the separation between the two that was needed and that is screwing up both. It is giving the little extra nudge to push this system out before it can reach our latitude and conversely this current event is not allowing the kicker to intensify quickly enough once it hits the coast. Pretty much the story of this winter except for the blizzard. for me the biggest problem much of the winter was a craptastic Atlantic usually conspiring to allow systems to cut. The final kick to the nads is we have a good window right now and we just needed one vort to dig in. Instead we get two sandwiched together so nothing can get going. Then after this I actually thought the pattern would continue but after 2 months straight with a favorable Pna epo combo the pacific decides to break down just as the Atlantic becomes less hostile. I was just looking at the Atlantic never anticipated we would lose the pacific. Still hard to complain about a year with that storm but it could have been a great one with just a little more luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 So what are we thinking...a general 1-3" snow... Dude, try to keep up. I told you 3 days ago that this was strictly a 0.5 - 2.5" storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 I don't get the negativity. This had minor/marginal event written all over it since the weekend. If we get an inch or two, great. because maybe some were holding out hope this might trend better. I wasn't expecting it to necessarily, but it's not like the models are always dead on from 5 days out. I guess there was a 50/50 chance it would trend worse too but given the seasonal tendency to shift things west it's not crazy to think this might get better when it showed a miss to our south. I don't think anyone is shocked or calling it a bust just disapointed that after pulling the rug out on us from 5 days a few times that this time the models didn't waver and the very meh solution stuck all week. If anything we have seen a slow bleed in the wrong direction overall the last week. Not sure why we shouldn't be disapointed by that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Baltimore area highways are already plastered with that pretreat chemical. Must want to use it all up to get the same funding for next year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Dude, try to keep up. I told you 3 days ago that this was strictly a 0.5 - 2.5" storm. True...i was just wondering...it's not very clear from others what to expect from this non event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vastateofmind Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 just checked. Oh man.. maybe .1 of qpf, over 12 hours. hahahaha SnowTv at best While I rooted for more earlier in the week, I'm actually alright with SnowTV™ at this point. I'm ready to sit out on my postage-stamp sized patio in balmier temps next week...and dream/wish that I had a deck and a "back 40" like yours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 because maybe some were holding out hope this might trend better. I wasn't expecting it to necessarily, but it's not like the models are always dead on from 5 days out. I guess there was a 50/50 chance it would trend worse too but given the seasonal tendency to shift things west it's not crazy to think this might get better when it showed a miss to our south. I don't think anyone is shocked or calling it a bust just disapointed that after pulling the rug out on us from 5 days a few times that this time the models didn't waver and the very meh solution stuck all week. If anything we have seen a slow bleed in the wrong direction overall the last week. Not sure why we shouldn't be disapointed by that? Good call on this period holding alot of potential for a winter event. You never called for a significant event tho the storm will bomb, just too far East. IMO you did a solid job pinpointing the threat and we are all at least getting 'something' out of it, even if just mood flakes for some areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 True...i was just wondering...it's not very clear from others what to expect from this non event Expect nothing is probably the best bet. Of course, I'm expecting the next model runs to go crazy and give us a 6-8" storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Does anyone have a solid guess when the radar hallucinations will commence so I can stop back to check latest obs? 6z-ish or so? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Too bad srefs are useless. They bumped back up to .5" qpf around the cities. Other than them, this has become another crash and burn storm. The 9z just went into the toilet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Demeter Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 I've gotten a couple surprise higher end snows this year. Hoping for another one, even if not, still fun to track something and be partially in the game. I'll be happy with 2 inches once again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 The 9z just went into the toilet.A non-event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Para euro a little more generous than the op. .2" qpf running 95 from dc to Baltimore. .15 for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Para euro a little more generous than the op. .2" qpf running 95 from dc to Baltimore. .15 for most. Well, with the low ratio wet snow, it should make first light on Friday scenic for one last time this winter. Won't last long tho once the sun is up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 You have to love the temp spike during the day tomorrow. All of the models have our temps rising anywhere from 10-12 degrees from 12Z to 18Z tomorrow. You better have your cameras ready. You might have 15 minutes to take your deck pics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 You have to love the temp spike during the day tomorrow. All of the models have our temps rising anywhere from 10-12 degrees from 12Z to 18Z tomorrow. You better have your cameras ready. You might have 15 minutes to take your deck pics Still a -10 forecast for the high temp tomorrow. March isn't well known for it's snow cover days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 12z NAM good for 1-2"... about same with 4km 12z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 12z NAM good for 1-2" Looking at the NAM I would be shocked if most of us get more than an inch. Unless the 4K is wetter. this marginal event has become a more marginal event if that is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Looking at the NAM I would be shocked if most of us get more than an inch. Unless the 4K is wetter. this marginal event has become a more marginal event if that is possible. If anybody gets an inch they should be thrilled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 ... Winter Weather Advisory in effect from 10 PM this evening to 10 am EST Friday... The National Weather Service in Baltimore MD/Washington has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for snow... which is in effect from 10 PM this evening to 10 am EST Friday. * Precipitation type... snow. * Accumulations... one to three inches... two to four inches across southern Maryland. * Timing... precipitation will move initially as a rain and snow mix early this evening... transitioning to all snow late this evening. Snow is expected overnight... impacting the morning commute... eventually tapering off by midday Friday. * Impacts... the snow will cause slippery roads... resulting in hazardous travel conditions. * Winds... east 5 to 10 mph with gusts up to 20 mph. * Temperatures... in the lower 30s. Precautionary/preparedness actions... A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means that periods of snow will cause primarily travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow covered roads and limited visibilities... and use caution while driving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 this is a bit much. It's obviously not going to be a big event, but there is pretty solid model agreement for over 0.10" liquid area-wide. If you want to set that thrill threshold at 2", I'll give you that. If anybody gets an inch they should be thrilled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 this is a bit much. It's obviously not going to be a big event, but there is pretty solid model agreement for over 0.10" liquid area-wide. If you want to set that thrill threshold a 2", I'll give you that. Agree...there's no point in being overly cynical. This was really never looking like a big event other than some hints/teases on a couple of runs. Expecting on the order of ~2" is very reasonable. (ETA: Note that DCA's average snow for March is 1.3", just to add a bit of perspective) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 This was never going to be much of an event as evidenced by the 18 pages of posts so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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