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Friday 3/4 "Last Gasp?" - Model Disco and Obs


DDweatherman

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I don't get the negativity. This had minor/marginal event written all over it since the weekend. If we get an inch or two, great.

Not negative. Just not excited over an event that will be melted before the end of the day. Hence, it would have been nice to have a better event as our last one of the year.
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I don't get the negativity. This had minor/marginal event written all over it since the weekend. If we get an inch or two, great.

I agree. One more winter morning before we break out the shorts is a bonus and a nice ending to a great season. Looks like a general 1-3". That should get me near 30" for my backyard.
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00Z runs stay the course. Some subtle changes that argue for a northern trend yet others that argue southward. Pretty much a wash overall. Ironically the shortwave following this current event that I was on about for days about having potential is helping to ruin this event for our locale. Never got the separation between the two that was needed and that is screwing up both. It is giving the little extra nudge to push this system out before it can reach our latitude and conversely this current event is not allowing the kicker to intensify quickly enough once it hits the coast. Pretty much the story of this winter except for the blizzard.

for me the biggest problem much of the winter was a craptastic Atlantic usually conspiring to allow systems to cut. The final kick to the nads is we have a good window right now and we just needed one vort to dig in. Instead we get two sandwiched together so nothing can get going. Then after this I actually thought the pattern would continue but after 2 months straight with a favorable Pna epo combo the pacific decides to break down just as the Atlantic becomes less hostile. I was just looking at the Atlantic never anticipated we would lose the pacific. Still hard to complain about a year with that storm but it could have been a great one with just a little more luck.
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I don't get the negativity. This had minor/marginal event written all over it since the weekend. If we get an inch or two, great.

because maybe some were holding out hope this might trend better. I wasn't expecting it to necessarily, but it's not like the models are always dead on from 5 days out. I guess there was a 50/50 chance it would trend worse too but given the seasonal tendency to shift things west it's not crazy to think this might get better when it showed a miss to our south. I don't think anyone is shocked or calling it a bust just disapointed that after pulling the rug out on us from 5 days a few times that this time the models didn't waver and the very meh solution stuck all week. If anything we have seen a slow bleed in the wrong direction overall the last week. Not sure why we shouldn't be disapointed by that?
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:lol: just checked. Oh man.. maybe .1 of qpf, over 12 hours. 

 

hahahaha SnowTv at best

 

While I rooted for more earlier in the week, I'm actually alright with SnowTV™ at this point. I'm ready to sit out on my postage-stamp sized patio in balmier temps next week...and dream/wish that I had a deck and a "back 40" like yours.

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because maybe some were holding out hope this might trend better. I wasn't expecting it to necessarily, but it's not like the models are always dead on from 5 days out. I guess there was a 50/50 chance it would trend worse too but given the seasonal tendency to shift things west it's not crazy to think this might get better when it showed a miss to our south. I don't think anyone is shocked or calling it a bust just disapointed that after pulling the rug out on us from 5 days a few times that this time the models didn't waver and the very meh solution stuck all week. If anything we have seen a slow bleed in the wrong direction overall the last week. Not sure why we shouldn't be disapointed by that?

Good call on this period holding alot of potential for a winter event. You never called for a significant event tho the storm will bomb, just too far East. IMO you did a solid job pinpointing the threat and we are all at least getting 'something' out of it, even if just mood flakes for some areas.

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You have to love the temp spike during the day tomorrow. All of the models have our temps rising anywhere from 10-12 degrees from 12Z to 18Z tomorrow. You better have your cameras ready. You might have 15 minutes to take your deck pics

 

 

Still a -10 forecast for the high temp tomorrow. March isn't well known for it's snow cover days. 

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... Winter Weather Advisory in effect from 10 PM this evening to

10 am EST Friday...

The National Weather Service in Baltimore MD/Washington has

issued a Winter Weather Advisory for snow... which is in effect

from 10 PM this evening to 10 am EST Friday.

* Precipitation type... snow.

* Accumulations... one to three inches... two to four inches across

southern Maryland.

* Timing... precipitation will move initially as a rain and snow

mix early this evening... transitioning to all snow late this

evening. Snow is expected overnight... impacting the morning

commute... eventually tapering off by midday Friday.

* Impacts... the snow will cause slippery roads... resulting in

hazardous travel conditions.

* Winds... east 5 to 10 mph with gusts up to 20 mph.

* Temperatures... in the lower 30s.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means that periods of snow

will cause primarily travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow

covered roads and limited visibilities... and use caution while

driving.

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     this is a bit much.    It's obviously not going to be a big event, but there is pretty solid model agreement for over 0.10" liquid area-wide.   If you want to set that thrill threshold at 2", I'll give you that. :snowing:

 

 

If anybody gets an inch they should be thrilled.

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     this is a bit much.    It's obviously not going to be a big event, but there is pretty solid model agreement for over 0.10" liquid area-wide.   If you want to set that thrill threshold a 2", I'll give you that. :snowing:

 

Agree...there's no point in being overly cynical.  This was really never looking like a big event other than some hints/teases on a couple of runs.  Expecting on the order of ~2" is very reasonable.

 

(ETA:  Note that DCA's average snow for March is 1.3", just to add a bit of perspective)

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