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Friday 3/4 "Last Gasp?" - Model Disco and Obs


DDweatherman

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No offense but you've said the CMC was worth considering before. LOL.

There have been events the CMC has done just fine. Two years ago and last year I clearly remember times the CMC did well with storms coming further north. It's like any other guidance out there...find its value, it's weakness etc.

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There have been events the CMC has done just fine. Two years ago and last year I clearly remember times the CMC did well with storms coming further north. It's like any other guidance out there...find its value, it's weakness etc.

 I remember it being awful on almost every storm since the one or two random times it did OK. many cases where using it only caused a worse forecast.

 

I was not being wholly serious on my Euro posts. Though it's certainly the best model over time whether or not it did badly here or there.

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Excuse the noobish question, but I asked earlier and no one answered. Why does no one ever talk about the NAVGEM? Is it just always terrible or what? From what I've heard it shows 2 in QPF in DC lol. Thanks in advance

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it's always way too amplified, hence the 2" qpf

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I remember it being awful on almost every storm since the one or two random times it did OK. many cases where using it only caused a worse forecast.

I was not being wholly serious on my Euro posts. Though it's certainly the best model over time whether or not it did badly here or there.

Euro is a very good model. GFS has come around quite a bit this year. But all guidance has its weak points for sure. It's just me personally, I take all guidance into consideration.

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Afternoon AFD from LWX

 

IF YOU`VE BEEN FOLLOWING THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS THEN YOU KNOW HOW DIFFICULT OF A TIME THE MODELS HAVE HAD
RESOLVED THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY AS IT CROSSES THE PACIFIC. THE ENERGY
HAS STILL YET TO REACH THE WEST COAST OF NOAM FOR THE SECOND
SYSTEM...BUT THE LEAD SHORTWAVE FOR THE FIRST (MID-WEEK) SYSTEM IS
ON SHORE AND MUCH BETTER RESOLVED. SINCE THE TRACK/STRENGTH ARE
BETTER RESOLVED NOW WITH THE FIRST SYSTEM...THE WAY THE FLOW SETTLES
IN ITS WAKE IS ALSO BETTER RESOLVED AND IS LEADING TO A BETTER
CONSENSUS FOR THE LATE WEEK LOW.

ENSEMBLE MEANS AND OPERATIONAL RUNS ARE NOW REASONABLY CLUSTERED ON
A LOW TRACK FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS KENTUCKY...GIVING WAY TO A
SECOND COASTAL LOW OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. THIS IS AGAIN MORE
AMPLIFIED AND FURTHER NORTH THAN 24 HOURS AGO...LIKELY DUE IN PART
TO A QUICKER FIRST LOW (TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY) WHICH ALLOWS THE
CONFLUENCE ZONE BEHIND IT TO ALSO RETREAT NORTH A LITTLE QUICKER.
THIS OPENS THE DOOR FOR THE SECOND LOW TO COME FURTHER NORTH. WHERE
THE MODELS STILL DIFFER AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH
FINER SCALE DETAILS IS HOW QUICKLY THE LOW EJECTS TO THE EAST AND
JUST WHERE ON THE COAST IT DEVELOPS. THIS SPREAD WILL LIKELY PERSIST
FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS UNTIL THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY LANDFALLS AND ITS
AMPLITUDE IS FULLY RESOLVED. FOR NOW...A SLIGHT WINTER STORM THREAT
STILL EXISTS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH MODESTLY INCREASING CONFIDENCE.
IMPACT WILL DEPEND ON TIMING/EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH...WHICH WILL
BE FINE TUNED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

THE PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
DIVES OUT OF CANADA TOWARDS THE REGION...OFFERING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION. AS RIDGING BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN/SHIFT EASTWARD FROM
THE WESTERN CONUS...A LARGE-SCALE WARMING TREND SHOULD ENSUE BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
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