Bob Chill Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 I'm interested in the "Mitch index"--------mean over or under 2". MDstorm Lol- it's 1.5" but very widespread. Indicative of good agreement for a modest event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 No offense but you've said the CMC was worth considering before. LOL. ALL guidance is worth considering Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 No offense but you've said the CMC was worth considering before. LOL. There have been events the CMC has done just fine. Two years ago and last year I clearly remember times the CMC did well with storms coming further north. It's like any other guidance out there...find its value, it's weakness etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 12z para GFS southern slider (as in comes off the southern NC coast)... but still gets the area decent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 OH MY GOSH... 18z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 12z para GFS southern slider... but still gets the area decent Not bad, looks like almost 0.5 to DC and 0.25 through most of our subforum. I like where we're at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 OH MY GOSH... 18z NAM pretty sure these posts got stupid about the 2nd attempt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 pretty sure these posts got stupid about the 2nd attempt. Its not even in range yet... only out to 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 There have been events the CMC has done just fine. Two years ago and last year I clearly remember times the CMC did well with storms coming further north. It's like any other guidance out there...find its value, it's weakness etc. I remember it being awful on almost every storm since the one or two random times it did OK. many cases where using it only caused a worse forecast. I was not being wholly serious on my Euro posts. Though it's certainly the best model over time whether or not it did badly here or there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 OH MY GOSH... 18z NAM it's only out to around 48 hrs???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Excuse the noobish question, but I asked earlier and no one answered. Why does no one ever talk about the NAVGEM? Is it just always terrible or what? From what I've heard it shows 2 in QPF in DC lol. Thanks in advance Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Excuse the noobish question, but I asked earlier and no one answered. Why does no one ever talk about the NAVGEM? Is it just always terrible or what? From what I've heard it shows 2 in QPF in DC lol. Thanks in advance Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk it's always way too amplified, hence the 2" qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 it's always way too amplified, hence the 2" qpf Thanks, apparently this guy I was talking to read it wrong. 1 inch in DC. No way that happens lol Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 I remember it being awful on almost every storm since the one or two random times it did OK. many cases where using it only caused a worse forecast. I was not being wholly serious on my Euro posts. Though it's certainly the best model over time whether or not it did badly here or there. Euro is a very good model. GFS has come around quite a bit this year. But all guidance has its weak points for sure. It's just me personally, I take all guidance into consideration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 I hope it snows a foot in DC just to piss Ian off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Afternoon AFD from LWX IF YOU`VE BEEN FOLLOWING THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM OVER THE PAST SEVERALDAYS THEN YOU KNOW HOW DIFFICULT OF A TIME THE MODELS HAVE HADRESOLVED THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY AS IT CROSSES THE PACIFIC. THE ENERGYHAS STILL YET TO REACH THE WEST COAST OF NOAM FOR THE SECONDSYSTEM...BUT THE LEAD SHORTWAVE FOR THE FIRST (MID-WEEK) SYSTEM ISON SHORE AND MUCH BETTER RESOLVED. SINCE THE TRACK/STRENGTH AREBETTER RESOLVED NOW WITH THE FIRST SYSTEM...THE WAY THE FLOW SETTLESIN ITS WAKE IS ALSO BETTER RESOLVED AND IS LEADING TO A BETTERCONSENSUS FOR THE LATE WEEK LOW.ENSEMBLE MEANS AND OPERATIONAL RUNS ARE NOW REASONABLY CLUSTERED ONA LOW TRACK FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS KENTUCKY...GIVING WAY TO ASECOND COASTAL LOW OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. THIS IS AGAIN MOREAMPLIFIED AND FURTHER NORTH THAN 24 HOURS AGO...LIKELY DUE IN PARTTO A QUICKER FIRST LOW (TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY) WHICH ALLOWS THECONFLUENCE ZONE BEHIND IT TO ALSO RETREAT NORTH A LITTLE QUICKER.THIS OPENS THE DOOR FOR THE SECOND LOW TO COME FURTHER NORTH. WHERETHE MODELS STILL DIFFER AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITHFINER SCALE DETAILS IS HOW QUICKLY THE LOW EJECTS TO THE EAST ANDJUST WHERE ON THE COAST IT DEVELOPS. THIS SPREAD WILL LIKELY PERSISTFOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS UNTIL THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY LANDFALLS AND ITSAMPLITUDE IS FULLY RESOLVED. FOR NOW...A SLIGHT WINTER STORM THREATSTILL EXISTS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH MODESTLY INCREASING CONFIDENCE.IMPACT WILL DEPEND ON TIMING/EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH...WHICH WILLBE FINE TUNED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.THE PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVEDIVES OUT OF CANADA TOWARDS THE REGION...OFFERING ANOTHER CHANCE OFPRECIPITATION. AS RIDGING BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN/SHIFT EASTWARD FROMTHE WESTERN CONUS...A LARGE-SCALE WARMING TREND SHOULD ENSUE BYEARLY NEXT WEEK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Afternoon AFD from LWX I thought on shore and "better resolved" was a myth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 HP on the NAM gains a little strength at 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 NAM seems wacky with the dual low thing. Nice look at h5 though. But late nam panels love amping things so I'm not going to pay much attention to the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 I bet DKT loves this coming out of LWX... I think I have the user name correct. THIS SPREAD WILL LIKELY PERSISTFOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS UNTIL THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY LANDFALLS AND ITSAMPLITUDE IS FULLY RESOLVED Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 NAM seems wacky with the dual low thing. Nice look at h5 though. But late nam panels love amping things so I'm not going to pay much attention to the run. Why? LWX is saying a low cutting into KY and transferring to NC Coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 DTK is somewhere strangling puppies after reading LWX's latest AFD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 NAM seems wacky with the dual low thing. Nice look at h5 though. But late nam panels love amping things so I'm not going to pay much attention to the run. Can you extrapolate where the coastal low will form based on what you see on the NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Para GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 NAM has a nice looking "clipper" basically http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=084ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_084_850_temp_ht.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=850_temp_ht&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160229+18+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Can you extrapolate where the coastal low will form based on what you see on the NAM? Jacksonville probably Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Nice CAD look. Para GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Why? LWX is saying a low cutting into KY and transferring to NC Coast That's not what the nam is showing. It has a low tracking into KY and also has another one in south Alabama tracking off the SC coast. It's not a transfer, looks strange, and has no support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Jacksonville probably Cynic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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