BristowWx Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 LOL....just messing around with you. Totally deserved. Now I am again walking the plank because of the SREFs. This has to stop before someone gets hurt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Well NAM is meh for most of our region, less than 2". Jackpot near Richmond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Well NAM is bad for most of our region, less than 2". Jackpot near Richmond. 1-3 is the benchmark... so its fine to me... and when is the last time we saw RIC jackpot? ETA: lol 7 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Richmond gets Nam'd. lol. I doubt it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Richmond gets Nam'd. lol. I doubt it Doesn't happen often but isn't this the type of event that they would jackpot. Seems like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Doesn't happen often but isn't this the type of event that they would jackpot. Seems like it. It's possible, just can't picture it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Richmond gets Nam'd. lol. I doubt it White rain for them though. Fredericksburg would be solid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Richmond gets Nam'd. lol. I doubt it Pretty much what the 12z euro showed, Judging by the wunderground 3hr snowfall maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 00z 4km NAM decent... advisory level snows for most of the region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 White rain for them though. Fredericksburg would be solid. That's about right...they finally get a storm with a favorable track and its 35F with 3:1 flakes the size of lawn chairs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 It's possible, just can't picture it. I actually remember a situation like this. I want to say it was March but not sure of year. Last 4 years maybe. 2011 maybe. We got 1-2 and they got slammed. I remember us thinking it would come north but it never did. The snow collapsed SE and we dried out quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 00z 4km NAM decent... advisory level snows for most of the region Surface temps float around 33 inside the beltway and east of I-95. Would prefer to see it colder next run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 I actually remember a situation like this. I want to say it was March but not sure of year. Last 4 years maybe. 2011 maybe. We got 1-2 and they got slammed. I remember us thinking it would come north but it never did. The snow collapsed SE and we dried out quickly. Was it 2012? Big bands setup near CHO and dumped 8-12" in 4 hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 That's about right...they finally get a storm with a favorable track and its 35F with 3:1 flakes the size of lawn chairs Most of it falls before 12z so it's night time. If they get good rates for a few hours 4" is easily possible. 6" maybe a bit of a stretch. I'm talking the city, not DT's house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Was it 2012? Big bands setup near CHO and dumped 8-12" in 4 hours? Yes. I think so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Yes. I think so. That was a crazy event. One persistent band Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Most of it falls before 12z so it's night time. If they get good rates for a few hours 4" is easily possible. 6" maybe a bit of a stretch. I'm talking the city, not DT's house. Loop the 2m temp map. It never gets close to freezing down there. Until hour 36 and by then its over. We actually have a decent surface up here but limited precip. Go figure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Loop the 2m temp map. It never gets close to freezing down there. Until hour 36 and by then its over. We actually have a decent surface up here but limited precip. Go figure. Exactly why I posted a possible clarksburg/Damascus snow jack but less precip yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Sref went the wrong way. The north trend really has halted today. every run that nudged north one went south. hope we start a new trend 0z I think the trend started within the last 24 hours. Let it continue! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 have been thinking all week that an orientation just so and the barometer at a certain level and this could be a desent event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 have been thinking all week that an orientation just so and the barometer at a certain level and this could be a desent event Subliminal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 0z GFS is 1-3" uniform. Most models are on the lower side, so I would over/under an inch. The coastals precip is 40 miles or so south. 0.5" QPF goes from King George, VA to Prince Frederick MD due east to Bethany Beach, DE. Vs 18z where that line was Locust Grove, VA to the SE Side of I-495 to around Annapolis then due east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 I like where we are on the gfs. This is more likely to tick north than south at this point. I'll happily take 1-2", but it would only be a 50 mile shift to double that for dc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 00Z runs stay the course. Some subtle changes that argue for a northern trend yet others that argue southward. Pretty much a wash overall. Ironically the shortwave following this current event that I was on about for days about having potential is helping to ruin this event for our locale. Never got the separation between the two that was needed and that is screwing up both. It is giving the little extra nudge to push this system out before it can reach our latitude and conversely this current event is not allowing the kicker to intensify quickly enough once it hits the coast. Pretty much the story of this winter except for the blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Both the 12k and 4k Nams have stepped back on overall snowfall for the heavier southern band yet keep the 95 corridor roughly the same. Edit: 06z GFS is basically the same @ 500 and surface except it does cut down on the heavier snowfall jackpot between Balt and DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 There was a slight shift south with the 0z model suite. Probably not worth over analyzing at this point. Its a minor event, generally 1-3" for the entire region. The heavier precip will stay mostly to the SE of our region, where there will be temp issues, rain, and lower ratios where it does snow. Doubt there will be more than 4" of snow anywhere and that would likely occur in the "jackpot" zone just to the NW of Richmond where temps will be just cold enough and that area gets under the better lift for a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 I know this is probably the last 'event' to really track for the winter before we have our shorts and wife beaters on next week but some are really overanalyizing this lol. Its been vitrually the same (save for usual model games) since the start....1-2" maybe 3" if someone gets lucky between Manassas-DC-Annapolis/south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Perfect storm for this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Too bad srefs are useless. They bumped back up to .5" qpf around the cities. Other than them, this has become another crash and burn storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Too bad srefs are useless. They bumped back up to .5" qpf around the cities. Other than them, this has become another crash and burn storm. Take what we can get and look forward to next winter. If I score 2" I'd be thrilled. Would love to have been NAMd one more time though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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