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Friday 3/4 "Last Gasp?" - Model Disco and Obs

DDweatherman

By DDweatherman,
in Mid Atlantic

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weatherCCB

weatherCCB

Posted
Posted

GFS was just noise imo. Basically the same as 12z in general. I think I've seen enough to know what to expect for my yard. 

 

Bar 1.5"

Max 3"

Min .5"

 

The min would happen one of 2 ways (or both). Simply get screwed with precip before sunrise or never hit freezing with .2 qpf overnight.

Hoping for a chance at 40" for the season. Would be great way to end it.

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BristowWx

BristowWx

Posted
Posted

GFS was just noise imo. Basically the same as 12z in general. I think I've seen enough to know what to expect for my yard.

Bar 1.5"

Max 3"

Min .5"

The min would happen one of 2 ways (or both). Simply get screwed with precip before sunrise or never hit freezing with .2 qpf overnight

If 850s were right at 0 I would be more nervous...we have some wiggle room. Maybe further west would mess that up. Either way we lose some to warm ground but time of day is money.

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted

ame="weatherCCB" post="4032351" timestamp="1456956344"]

If 850s were right at 0 I would be more nervous...we have some wiggle room. Maybe further west would mess that up. Either way we lose some to warm ground but time of day is money.

 

We'll see how it goes. I'm probably ok with surface. Meso's don't have me going above 40 tomorrow so it's a fairly quick trip to freezing in the late evening. If I hit 43+ tomorrow afternoon then it gets more difficult. 

 

I think 1.5" is a pretty good middle ground for my location. 

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BristowWx

BristowWx

Posted
Posted

We'll see how it goes. I'm probably ok with surface. Meso's don't have me going above 40 tomorrow so it's a fairly quick trip to freezing in the late evening. If I hit 43+ tomorrow afternoon then it gets more difficult. 

 

I think 1.5" is a pretty good middle ground for my location.

You'll get that. Wintry weekend. But I'm with you that it's fine if that it the end. Even the best March still transitions to spring. If I get 2 in it puts me over 30. More than I ever thought in December.

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Scarlet Pimpernel

Scarlet Pimpernel

Posted
Posted

You'll get that. Wintry weekend. But I'm with you that it's fine if that it the end. Even the best March still transitions to spring. If I get 2 in it puts me over 30. More than I ever thought in December.

 

Same here, I'm close to 30 on the season, and it would be remarkable to accomplish that after the December torch.  Granted, of course, nearly all that fell in the blizzard, but still.

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted

Yes I also have 30% chance of snow Saturday night and Sunday- any thoughts on that? Haven't seen it discussed here anywhere.

It's been on guidance but it's a weak and sheared vort. Euro twins kinda have it. The one thing going for it is overnight timing so whatever falls should be snow and not rain. But it won't amount to anything.

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Scarlet Pimpernel

Scarlet Pimpernel

Posted
Posted

Has anyone else seen the "snow"  (not snow showers or flurries) listed in the point and click for central MD for Saturday Night and Sunday morning? 

 

Shows up closer into the DC area, too.  I think that's the follow-up disturbance that the GFS has been showing, might be good for some snow TV as BristowWx mentioned above.

 

(Gah!  Internet cut out at random for no apparent reason again...f'ing Verizon modem!!)

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted

post-397-0-32237300-1456966643_thumb.gif

 


PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSIONNWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD402 PM EST WED MAR 02 2016VALID 00Z THU MAR 03 2016 - 00Z SUN MAR 06 2016DAYS 1-3......MID MS AND OH VALLEYS TO THE MID ATLANTIC/COASTAL NORTHEAST...A DYNAMIC SHORT WAVE ARRIVING INTO THE NRN PLAINS THIS AFTN WILLSTREAK ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY TO THE OH/TNVALLEYS TONIGHT THROUGH THURS. THIS FEATURE WILL INDUCE A SURFACEWAVE OVER NRN KS WHICH WILL SLIDE SOUTH AND EAST TOWARD MO BYTHURS MORNING AND THE TN VALLEY BY THURS EVENING. ONCE AGAIN...INCREASING LOW LEVEL WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION INTERACTINGWITH LOW-MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS... IN ADDITION TO THE FAVORABLEUPPER FORCING... WILL SUPPORT A ZONE OF OVERRUNNING/ISENTROPICSNOW. WPC FOLLOWED A COMPROMISE OF THE GUIDANCE... DUE TOCONSIDERABLE SPREAD ON QPF... FOR A STREAK OF SNOW FROM EASTCENTRAL IA THROUGH NRN IL INTO NRN IN AND WRN/SRN OH. THEN LATETHURS THROUGH FRI... THE FCST SHIFTS TO THE NRN MID-ATL STATES.THE SHORT WAVE DYNAMICS JUMP TO THE NC COAST AND AN ASSOCIATEDSURFACE LOW JUMPS FROM THE SOUTH TO THE NC COAST. THIS LOW ISEXPECTED TO DEEPEN RAPIDLY AND GO THROUGH THE BEGINNING STAGES OFCYCLOGENESIS... THUS ALLOW AN INFLUX OF DEEPER MOISTURE CONTENT TOFILTER BACK INTO THE ESTABLISHED COLD SECTOR. HOWEVER ENOUGHSPREAD REMAINS WITH THE GUIDANCE... THOUGH THIS IS NARROWINGCONSIDERABLY TOWARD A TROUBLING DIFFICULT FORECAST. WPC WENT WITHA BLEND OF THE 12Z ECMWF/GFS AND NAM WITH 09Z SREF MEAN ON A WIDEAREA OF SNOW THURS NIGHT/FRI BUT A POTENTIAL STREAK OF HEAVIERAMOUNTS FROM CENTRAL VA THROUGH THE NRN NECK INTO SOUTHERN MD TOTHE DELMARVA COAST AND POSSIBLY LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL SRN NEWENGLAND. THIS FORECAST STILL HAS THE OPPORTUNITY TO VARY BUT THENARROWING OF SPREAD WITH THE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE TOWARD MORE OFCONSENSUS IS ALLOWING MORE CONFIDENCE TO ACCUMULATING SNOW OVERTHE MID-ATL STATES.
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Scarlet Pimpernel

Scarlet Pimpernel

Posted
Posted

Sref went the wrong way. The north trend really has halted today. every run that nudged north one went south. hope we start a new trend 0z

 

Strange...because the 18Z NAM was actually somewhat of an improvement over its 12Z (and earlier) runs.  But yeah, the latest 21Z SREF definitely moved things noticeably farther southeast.

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BristowWx

BristowWx

Posted
Posted

Advisories by afternoon package?

Agreed. A passing flurry Thursday night. GFS should be along to confirm this idea in 30 min. I will stay up to witness the demise of this threat and winter 15-16.

I'm on medication for this but sometimes I forget to take it

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WinterWxLuvr

WinterWxLuvr

Posted
Posted

Sref went the wrong way. The north trend really has halted today. every run that nudged north one went south. hope we start a new trend 0z

I haven't tried to access total precip on those but I'll bet my total actually went up slightly on them. Also, is this slowing slightly? When you look at 24 hr precip at 21z Friday you can see the differences on the western edge from the 15z run

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Scarlet Pimpernel

Scarlet Pimpernel

Posted
Posted

I haven't tried to access total precip on those but I'll bet my total actually went up slightly on them. Also, is this slowing slightly? When you look at 24 hr precip at 21z Friday you can see the differences on the western edge from the 15z run

 

Looking at the 24 hours that would cover the event, it appears to me that the 0.25" contour is similar on its western edge (maybe expanded a tad more west?) comparing 15Z to 21Z.  However, the northern edge in MD is definitely "collapsed" more to the south/southeast.  As is the 0.50" line.  Not sure if it means much, or if the SREF is the most useful now, but not good to see anyhow.  Interesting that the 18Z GEFS actually upped the snow amounts from the plots posted a bit earlier.

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