BTRWx Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 That bullseye looks closer to Richmond than Fredricksburg. Or I'm just bad at Geography. That could be the other way around this time tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
attml Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 The NOAA point and click has 2-5" for most of the region Thursday night and Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichmondTarHeel Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Can someone help a weather noob out. What's keeping the moisture from expanding out further west according to the 4k NAM here? Seems a little compact compared to what I normally see with a low just off the coast. I guess one could argue it's further out than "just off" the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 this has bust for the cities written all over it You've been trying too hard to be a buzzkill the last six weeks. You should probably stop now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Can someone help a weather noob out. What's keeping the moisture from expanding out further west according to the 4k NAM here? Seems a little compact compared to what I normally see with a low just off the coast. I guess one could argue it's further out than "just off" the coast. At that point the surface low is tightening up and pulling away. Wraparound will only expand so far. The air on the backside is sinking and drying. Too far away from the real dynamics. If you watch the back edge of precip on a strong low the gradient is typically sharp. Deals also with frontogenetical forcing and vectors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshfsu123 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 NWS Sterling latest... this morning it was below an inch for DC area. Max potential is 6 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Your right. No your right. My left gets nada. JK, I like the way this is setting up and I don't think this will be our last. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Look how that axis is orienting sw-ne, that's the turn or gain in latitude I have referenced for 5 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 You've been trying too hard to be a buzzkill the last six weeks. You should probably stop now I've nailed this winter going all the way back to October. I've never disputed I'm a weenie and that I want as much snow as possible, but it's been a lousy pattern for the last 6 weeks to the consternation of all. But don't blame me. I would have preferred a few more blizzards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Look how that axis is orienting sw-ne, that's the turn or gain in latitude I have referenced for 5 days It's still too far east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichmondTarHeel Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 At that point the surface low is tightening up and pulling away. Wraparound will only expand so far. The air on the backside is sinking and drying. Too far away from the real dynamics. If you watch the back edge of precip on a strong low the gradient is typically sharp. Deals also with frontogenetical forcing and vectors. Thanks for the explanation. Easy to understand outside of the whole frontogenetical forcing thing, but that's what Google's for! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Thanks for the explanation. Easy to understand outside of the whole frontogenetical forcing thing, but that's what Google's for! Here is a decent explanation. http://www.theweatherprediction.com/weatherpapers/023/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohwxguy Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 18z RGEM isn't anything spectacular for DC. System is too far south, keeping the main precip shield away from the beltway. Yawn. http://meteocentre.com/models/models.php?lang=en&map=na&run=18&mod=gemreg&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 NWS Sterling latest... this morning it was below an inch for DC area. Max potential is 6 inches. Must be the Columbia death band at work again ..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 It's still too far east Give it 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 The contours once the low is at the coast are nne-ne move indicating In the overall its still very encouraging for a mild to moderate event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Things seem the same to me on 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Things seem the same to me on 18zwe need to fly planes to the gulf of Mexico or pittsburgh. Something is off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 18Z GFS....hair better than 12Z http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2016030218&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=054 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 I think QPF stayed same as 12z but heavier stuff wee bit west...is that fair or off my rocker? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 I would say GFS is definitely wetter and gets a bit more digging! Gets a better chance at the 2 - 4" into DC region. This was close to something better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 18Z GFS....hair better than 12Z http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2016030218&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=054 IWM snowmaps have 3 inches into DC, which would exceed my expectations and be a nice end to the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 18Z GFS....hair better than 12Z http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2016030218&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=054 http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2016030212&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=060 12Z ending same time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 The radar hallucinations will be nothing short of epic tomorrow night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 if we get the same adjustment west we got the last 36 hours with that January teaser before the blizzard we will get crushed. Where is that Ravens guy to bring this home??? Hes gonna be in Ocean City this weekend.... He thinks he in for a blizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Bit n and west.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 We are talking 25 mile shift to bring more smiles... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 We have time of day on our side for this one. Coming in after sunset and overnight. All solutions have at least minor accumulations and all players entering the conus. I like where we stand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 gfs has actually shifted slightly east the last 2 runs. It's best run was 6z. But it's been minor and mostly noise but the west trend stopped just short of where we need it. Maybe it resumes 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 GFS was just noise imo. Basically the same as 12z in general. I think I've seen enough to know what to expect for my yard. Bar 1.5" Max 3" Min .5" The min would happen one of 2 ways (or both). Simply get screwed with precip before sunrise or never hit freezing with .2 qpf overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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