WEATHER53 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 This will turn out nice and it's even starting to look like the exit speed of the low will be slower Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 The dreaded words... 'SNOW HOLE' well it's sorta mainly the zone between the spots that get precip mostly from the northern wave and then the main low. good luck figuring that one out. but that northern wave is going to keep the shield from expanding super far north/northwest and also tend to keep the low from amplifying.. just not sure how we can get a way better solution from this range. but the north trend is usually real so there's that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 It's worse than last night for the burbs and cities. The heavy stuff now into SMD. That's the big difference. What's worse about it? Northern Maryland is lower by maybe .5" but the southern swath has trended closer to many of us. It's identical imby fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 mainly because the drier "hole" got shifted north with the run. the main shield is certainly closer. Exactly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 The low will ride the baroclinic zone, wherever that sets up. Deepening lows can do interesting things. Too far to the east and gradient sharpens and cuts the precip right off, just close enough and someone could get a nice surprise in one of those bands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Euro is a hair norther and wetter but it's in the noise level. However in this range I'd expect it would expect that north tick.But does the euro expect you to expect it's expected shift. If you only look at this run I agree it's noise however when you see the steady trend each of the last 4 runs north and more amplified it becomes something more definitive. It's subtle run to run but there. Most importantly it's now close enough to give us a shot. Long shot but we only need a 50-75 mile adjustment now with 48 hours to go not 150 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 It's more like 30-36 hours to go, isn't it? Anyway, this is all about expectations...most think 1-3" that's more than likely going to be the case, maybe we get surprised but it's not likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 But does the euro expect you to expect it's expected shift. If you only look at this run I agree it's noise however when you see the steady trend each of the last 4 runs north and more amplified it becomes something more definitive. It's subtle run to run but there. Most importantly it's now close enough to give us a shot. Long shot but we only need a 50-75 mile adjustment now with 48 hours to go not 150 miles. I hope it gets bigger. Waking up at 5a to cover a dusting will make me angry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Ukie is also going with a stronger low tracking closer to the coast. Here's the qpf for 00z and 12z. 00z: 12z: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 I hope it gets bigger. Waking up at 5a to cover a dusting will make me angry. Radar will look good to the SE though so at least you can watch loops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 It's more like 30-36 hours to go, isn't it? Anyway, this is all about expectations...most think 1-3" that's more than likely going to be the case, maybe we get surprised but it's not likely. I would take 2 inches in a heartbeat.... just enough to cover the trees and make everything beautiful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Clear into tonight then increasing clouds but still get down to 25-30 And then onset so seems like Nws forecast of low 40's Thursday is too mild Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Wow just looking at the Euro, definitely close enough to stay interested. A 50 mile NW shift would get DC into some decent snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 mainly because the drier "hole" got shifted north with the run. the main shield is certainly closer. that's the risk. As the coastal gets closer we will get stuck in the dead zone subsidence just outside the developing Ccb if the trend stops now. I'm fine with giving up 1-3" for a shot at more but we're now at risk for nothing. The models are notorious for overdoing qpf just outside the best banding with these systems. I think if we don't get into the developing coastal we probably just get some periods of light snow in the evening from the initial wave with very little accumulation. That will shut off quick as the southern system takes over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 this has bust for the cities written all over it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 this has bust for the cities written all over it Yeah but it's hard to bust when you're not really expecting anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 this has bust for the cities written all over it That has been every event except the Blizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 That has been every event except the Blizzard I know, which is pretty much why I believe it to be the case (atmos. memory, etc.). Maybe the last one will shock us. Who knows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 I'd pay a ton of money to see this come 200 miles nw. A ton. And when it was raining, I'd be laughing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichmondTarHeel Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 this has bust for the cities written all over it It also has an equal amount of boom written all over it for the cities. That's the joy of winter forecasting, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 I'd pay a ton of money to see this come 200 miles nw. A ton. And when it was raining, I'd be laughing. 198 miles and we will be fine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfpackwxDC Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 I hope it gets bigger. Waking up at 5a to cover a dusting will make me angry. Where do I sign up for personal CWG alarm alerts so I know whether or not it is worth MY time also to wake up that early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 The latest SREFS don't even get the 0.25" line to my area. It's going to be difficult to disappoint me on this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 The latest SREFS don't even get the 0.25" line to my area. It's going to be difficult to disappoint me on this event. the 9z or are the 15z out yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Never mind saw. Srefs took a step back. Really can't afford any wrong moves right now. Just a sign that the trend may be over. Gfs and gefs was a step down 12z from 6z. Some of the guidance that was south shifted north a bit in line. Srefs backed off a bit. Signs are things have settled on a solution and it's the worst possible one for us. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohwxguy Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 that's the risk. As the coastal gets closer we will get stuck in the dead zone subsidence just outside the developing Ccb if the trend stops now. I'm fine with giving up 1-3" for a shot at more but we're now at risk for nothing. The models are notorious for overdoing qpf just outside the best banding with these systems. I think if we don't get into the developing coastal we probably just get some periods of light snow in the evening from the initial wave with very little accumulation. That will shut off quick as the southern system takes over. This. Sort of like an all or nothing scenario (though we'll still probably get more than nothing... but it's likely to amount to not much more than nothing unless the subtle NW shift continues). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Never mind saw. Srefs took a step back. Really can't afford any wrong moves right now. Just a sign that the trend may be over. Gfs and gefs was a step down 12z from 6z. Some of the guidance that was south shifted north a bit in line. Srefs backed off a bit. Signs are things have settled on a solution and it's the worst possible one for us. Lol Yeah, looks like a shift to the east with the precip., though not sure how much that means... 09Z: ...and 15Z: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 0.5 still goes through DCA on the 15z map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 We are down to 50 mile increments and whether the .5 line makes it to Bowie or Silver Spring which I think are good problems to have Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.