Bob Chill Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Are there any signs pointing to a still changing proposition of up vs. progressive? Or this seems locked as is? Right now it's pretty locked in across the board. I wouldn't expect anything groundbreaking out of the euro suite. The para looked better than the op last night so that is good. We should just be happy with whatever we get and move on. Early spring weather is headed our way next week. I plan on enjoying it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 This is always the sad part... The last snow of the year. Then everyone leaves until next Nov/Dec some of us are around but I don't post much. I don't have much skill at severe or tropical so I wouldn't be adding any value. I just lurk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Fwiw GGEM is 1-2" temps are colder than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 some of us are around but I don't post much. I don't have much skill at severe or tropical so I wouldn't be adding any value. I just lurk. That, and the fact that summer weather is usually a much more consistent animal. I could predict partly sunny, mid to upper 80's, 30-40% chance of afternoon storms and nail a good deal of the June through August weather forecasts. In fact, that's my forecast for the whole summer. I'll do verification afterward..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Right now it's pretty locked in across the board. I wouldn't expect anything groundbreaking out of the euro suite. The para looked better than the op last night so that is good. We should just be happy with whatever we get and move on. Early spring weather is headed our way next week. I plan on enjoying it. I'm quickly losing interest in this. From here on out I might glance at each run to see if a nice surprise has popped up but I'm not spending much time analyzing a 1-3" gone by noon type setup. Sucks that after a month of over amped we get a decent 5 day window and both vorts we have to work with get squashed. This could have been a nice event to end the season if the vort didn't dig so much. Then the epo goes to crap and ruins the rest of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Right now it's pretty locked in across the board. I wouldn't expect anything groundbreaking out of the euro suite. The para looked better than the op last night so that is good. We should just be happy with whatever we get and move on. Early spring weather is headed our way next week. I plan on enjoying it. Thank you for the reply Sir Chill. I'm happy to see some snow fall one last time this winter. 70s and beer on the deck weather just around the corner. I know I plan on enjoying it as well. Cheers for all you do for us here. Let's bring this one home! :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 That, and the fact that summer weather is usually a much more consistent animal. I could predict partly sunny, mid to upper 80's, 30-40% chance of afternoon storms and nail a good deal of the June through August weather forecasts. In fact, that's my forecast for the whole summer. I'll do verification afterward..... I also think that most people enjoy snow more than severe or tropical weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Fwiw GGEM is 1-2" temps are colder than the GFS. This is good news...models are honing in on this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Have a feeling the snow squalls here this morning will be more eventful than anything that falls here tomorrow night.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 That, and the fact that summer weather is usually a much more consistent animal. I could predict partly sunny, mid to upper 80's 90s with DPs in the upper 70s, 30-40% chance of afternoon storms and nail a good deal of the June through August weather forecasts. In fact, that's my forecast for the whole summer. I'll do verification afterward..... FYP a little... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Have a feeling the snow squalls here this morning will be more eventful than anything that falls here tonight. Me too. Now tomorrow night is a different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Me too. Now tomorrow night is a different story. D'oh. I didn't catch that, although my original sentiment still applies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 100 mile shift NW is all I want Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 CMC: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 I like what I see on the euro over the last 48 hours of runs. It's always tougher to compare the off-runs, so what I noticed on wxbell maps is the low looks consolidated a little better from the 0Z run last night with a slight expanse of more moderate precip to the nw. It's only a 1mb improvement, but also the center of circulation hugs the coast a little more as well. In more detail, the 0Z run from last night has a 987 mb low just to the sw of the central Outer Banks with the .35 qpf line within a few miles of Fredericksburg (actually closer to Ashland, VA) while the 0Z run from March 1 showed a 988 mb low a few miles to the se just off the coast of the Outer Banks and the .35 qpf line appears closer Williamsburg. (The .5 qpf line trended from VA Beach to Richmond) These are small changes, but could be just what we need to do a little better possibly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Take a look at the 6z gfs for example. You'd think with a 989 low sitting off the coast of obx and decent high in NW Maine, that this look would be more expansive. I understand at h5 the trough doesn't really go neutral/negative early enough for us, but hey, it's close. All we need is the s/w to dig a bit harder. Sharpen up the trough a little so the flow is so noodle soup out into the atlantic. Just saying. It's pretty close where just small adjustments brings us from 1-3" to 3-6" imho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Take a look at the 6z gfs for example. You'd think with a 989 low sitting off the coast of obx and decent high in NW Maine, that this look would be more expansive. I understand at h5 the trough doesn't really go neutral/negative early enough for us, but hey, it's close. All we need is the s/w to dig a bit harder. Sharpen up the trough a little so the flow is so noodle soup out into the atlantic. Just saying. It's pretty close where just small adjustments brings us from 1-3" to 3-6" imho. 6z was VERY close to a great result for us, but it took a step back at 12z and was already an extreme outlier so using that as a baseline seems ambitous. Furthermore, the less then expansive QPF representation is because of the miller b nature of the system. The transfer slows down the development of a mature CCB qpf field. THe same storm at the same intensity that was a miller a would have a more mature precip field by that point. This develops just a slight bit late so we would need a closer SLP pass then we would with a gulf miller a system or a faster development or both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Euro is a hair norther and wetter but it's in the noise level. However in this range I'd expect it would expect that north tick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Euro is really close. Close enough to keep me partially interested another run or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Euro is really close. Close enough to keep me partially interested another run or two. We are running out of runs. Is the shortwave on shore and fully sampled yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 We are running out of runs. Is the shortwave on shore and fully sampled yet? Oh, my! I think I see dtk on the horizon, and he doesn't look happy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 I'm pretty sure you wrote this off a few days ago. Most posters wrote it off quite guardedly Lots now in the 1-3" range with up to 6 possible and zero still possible also which is actually not forecasting The breeding ground elements are coming together and the isobars still show how it will try and gain latitude as it is moving eastward from KY and thru NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 I don't really think it can get a ton better. But we're on the NW edge of 'decent' precip. Maybe we'll get banded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Euro is really close. Close enough to keep me partially interested another run or two. It's a rabbit hole. lol 2mb stronger and a touch NW but the good shield is still out of reach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichmondTarHeel Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 How much wetter is the Euro? Anyone able to provide particular numbers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 How much wetter is the Euro? Anyone able to provide particular numbers? Don't get excited. .1 at DCA Extreme southern md, the neck of VA and se va have totals above .5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 How much wetter is the Euro? Anyone able to provide particular numbers? It's worse than last night for the burbs and cities. The heavy stuff now into SMD. That's the big difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 We need to pull that sucker NW by 150-200 miles More like 50 and with precip back into far western ps and ny I doubt the western edge in va is only central va Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 How much wetter is the Euro? Anyone able to provide particular numbers? When comparing 12Z runs only, it's a huge improvement in my view. The Low center appear to have trended north a good 100 miles eyeballing and the precip shield numbers show .3+ qpf now well in lwx! Now the .3" qpf line is in Frdericksburg and was more near VA Beach on yesterday's 12Z! Richmond appear to have increased snowfall now with a 6" swath! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 It's worse than last night for the burbs and cities. The heavy stuff now into SMD. That's the big difference. mainly because the drier "hole" got shifted north with the run. the main shield is certainly closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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