SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Looks more like the Euro through 45, not gonna get a GFS like solution here it appears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 The positions of the low aren't too far off on the GFS and NAM but the NAM is so much more compact, so much less precip on the NW side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 The 500's were basically a wash on the NAM. There were a couple of things that improved but there were also some that degraded. That look will not get it done if you are hoping for a GFS type solution.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 NAM says no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichmondTarHeel Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 The positions of the low aren't too far off on the GFS and NAM but the NAM is so much more compact, so much less precip on the NW side. I agree. I would think with this low placement and the strength of the storm there'd be a further expansion of precip to the NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 I agree. I would think with this low placement and the strength of the storm there'd be a further expansion of precip to the NW. We need to pull that sucker NW by 150-200 miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 I'm not sure it even needs to be 150 miles. Just pull it northwest by 50-100 and I think we would get a pretty good hit. If you looked at the 6z GFS, if you take it as gospel, if you moved it about 50-100 miles NW you would be getting well over 1 inch qpf over the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Just to throw it out there, the FIM which takes into account the GFS physics shows no snow south and east of the cities, around 1" in DC proper and 1-3" N and W of the cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Just to throw it out there, the FIM which takes into account the GFS physics shows no snow south and east of the cities, around 1" in DC proper and 1-3" N and W of the cities. Didn't our earlier brush with the FIM go poorly on the West Virginia cutter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 I agree. I would think with this low placement and the strength of the storm there'd be a further expansion of precip to the NW. I know there other factors at play, but I still wonder if the relatively low sea surface temperatures around the SE US are holding back precip somewhat. The 00z RGEM ensemble had one big hit for DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 I'm not sure it even needs to be 150 miles. Just pull it northwest by 50-100 and I think we would get a pretty good hit. If you looked at the 6z GFS, if you take it as gospel, if you moved it about 50-100 miles NW you would be getting well over 1 inch qpf over the area. Looks to me like the NAM is a relative miss but close. Not as much digging at 500-mb where we'd need it so it shunts off the coast more (at 500, it does finally deepen more, but too far away), comparing to the 06Z GFS. You can see this to some extent in the 700-mb RH/VV field, the 06Z GFS has more of a CCB signature over us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 If it comes NW by 150 miles you'll be looking at rain. 150 miles is a long distance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 2, 2016 Author Share Posted March 2, 2016 Just this one time I'd love to see the GFS do it. I'm not bullish on this but I started the thread so I'm gonna be a team player and ride it out til the end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohwxguy Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 12z RGEM keeps the storm too far southeast to amount to much here in DC. Some initial precip associated with the weakening OH Valley system moves through the area, but the low off the southeast coast takes over and stays too far southeast to cause much of an issue for DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Didn't our earlier brush with the FIM go poorly on the West Virginia cutter? Just thought to put it out there that it supports the low end of things which is in line with most guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Just this one time I'd love to see the GFS do it. I'm not bullish on this but I started the thread so I'm gonna be a team player and ride it out til the end Everyone is hard on the GFS... but it has been pretty good this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 1009 MSLP in GA at 39 on 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 1001 MSLP around ILM at 45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 No shift nw from 6z. Slight shift SE. Everything is coming in line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 GFS on RaleighWx maps still 2-4 inches though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Looks like a general 1-3" where the surface cooperates. I think we have full agreement now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 H5 is different. Starts out with nice amplified ridge out west but shortwave energy is not uniform as it swings out. Last night was a nice neutral trough . Southern portion dives down more and the overall pattern not supportive of a turn up the coast. More progressive and off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Looks like a general 1-3" where the surface cooperates. I think we have full agreement now. Yup, looks like it. Back to our original 1-3"/2-4" type scenario (though 2-4 might be on the high end). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 The GFS gets some good precip into DC at 12z friday morning.. not a bad run for 95 on east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 So close to a big hit on the GFS. That will become a vigorous system for sure. Still an advisory level event for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 The GFS gets some good precip into DC at 12z friday morning.. not a bad run for 95 on east. Worst spot for temps though. Never makes it below freezing se of 95. Could be the case where Clarksburg/Damascus gets the most snow but not the most precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 The GFS gets some good precip into DC at 12z friday morning.. not a bad run for 95 on east. Yeah, with a surface right around freezing and darkness there could be a nice period of accumulation before 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Are there any signs pointing to a still changing proposition of up vs. progressive? Or this seems locked as is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 So close to a big hit on the GFS. That will become a vigorous system for sure. Still an advisory level event for our area. Yes, subtle difference from 06Z it appears. 12Z has that closed low just a bit more offshore compared to 06Z. Not sure how much it means. But yeah, it doesn't seem like it wouldn't take a lot to become a lot more...as you say, it's still a decent advisory type event as depicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 I agree. I would think with this low placement and the strength of the storm there'd be a further expansion of precip to the NW. I know this is late to reply to this but the problem there is that the low is in the early stages of development. Its a miller b transfer situation not a miller a where by the time a storm gets to that same spot its mature with a huge CCB qpf and deform banding. The low is just getting going and has not had time to develop a mature QPF feild yet. It expands later on when it is OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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