Wonderdog Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 I am of the opinion that it has to do with the trough placement. Trough was going neutral too far east not giving the low any room to work with. The the last two days the GFS has shifted that a hundred miles west and I think we are now seeing the results. . Is that something that could have been predicted or are we left at the mercy of the fickle models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Some nice hits on the 6z gefs for DC s/e. If I lived i95 on east I wouldn't give in yet. you throwing in the towel for us? Gefs actually got worse up here if we use 6" as a brnchmark. Yesterday there were 5 members giving us 6". Last run its down to 1 but with several missing us just southeast. The gradient has tightened up but also the axis has been shifting nw. So it's worse right now but perhaps closer to something big. DC southeast don't need much. We need another few adjustments nw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Lets be happy and celabrate with the 6Z GFS... most likely it will be gone at 12Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Is that something that could have been predicted or are we left at the mercy of the fickle models? Maybe to a point if you go by previous tendencies. The Euro has occasionally this winter shown a good solution in the longer range only to lose at mid range and then to go back to the originally solution a day or two before game time. I haven't seen it shifting back as of yet (maybe subtly) but would not be surprised if we do in the next run or two. Of course the GFS may be out to lunch on this one. Edit. To be a little clearer. The Euro would initially, in the longer range, have a good placement of the trough and we would see that reflected with a nice track of the low. Mid range it would shift the trough east and we would see the low and the track suppressed to the south and east. The Euro then was shifting the trough back west and were seeing the resulting low shift back with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Wow, latest GFS is like a 50 mile shift away from a huge snowstorm. Probably just noise and it will probably shift back south and east at 12z, but definitely making this worth a closer look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 I thought I read in here the past few days how poor a model the gfs was irt to its huge shifts from one run to the next, though most are now on board verbatim with its latest solution? I would certainly take the 6z solution in a heartbeat but im not sure that i trust it. Appears to be the outlier attm? GFS has improved this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 2, 2016 Author Share Posted March 2, 2016 I just can't buy what the GFS is selling right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 I just can't buy what the GFS is selling right now.When the gfs is on board with the cras, it probably should be tossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 The uptick in the GFS is mainly due to the model latching onto an improved upper level pattern. H5 trough holds better energy with the orientation starting to become more neutral. H5 ridging also begins more amplified out west. Still not ideal for a phase closer in but looks better. Other solution are more progressive and positive tilt at H5. Hopefully we'll see more consistency by 00z tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Highest confidence still a 1-3" event with GFS being a boom or max scenario of 3-5/4-6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Keep in mind ratios with this system will be along the lines of 7:1 or 8:1....really wet late-season snowfall. Should make the area scenic Friday morning anywho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Keep in mind ratios with this system will be along the lines of 7:1 or 8:1....really wet late-season snowfall. Should make the area scenic Friday morning anywho. I wouldn't assume that. It really depends what time of day, what the surface temps are and other factors. The temps at the snow growth region actually have more to do with ratios so long as the ground temps are cold enough to allow it to stick. If its 34 then yea that wont work. But overnight if its around 31-32 the ratios could be higher then you expect because we are plenty cold where it matters most up above. During the day if the precip lingers then I would expect ratios to go way down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 hopefully its not convective feedback or something. I mean it really cranks up the low. skeptical but enthused. unless there is some GEFS member that went wild. it just seems really better really fast. Checked 850s and they look solid. what could go wrong I'm pretty sure you wrote this off a few days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Lets be happy and celabrate with the 6Z GFS... most likely it will be gone at 12Z Now there's some science. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 New Srefs bumped the .5" line NW http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fsref%2F09%2Fsref_namer_063_precip_p24.gif&model=sref&area=namer&storm=&cycle=09¶m=precip_p24&fhr=063&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160302+09+UTC&ps=model&use_mins=no&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 I wouldn't assume that. It really depends what time of day, what the surface temps are and other factors. The temps at the snow growth region actually have more to do with ratios so long as the ground temps are cold enough to allow it to stick. If its 34 then yea that wont work. But overnight if its around 31-32 the ratios could be higher then you expect because we are plenty cold where it matters most up above. During the day if the precip lingers then I would expect ratios to go way down. If the 06Z GFS idea of a stacked low is correct I would not be surprised to see an adjustment of temps downwards and better ratios. That being said I would not throw away a 5-1 paste job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 New Srefs bumped the .5" line NW http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fsref%2F09%2Fsref_namer_063_precip_p24.gif&model=sref&area=namer&storm=&cycle=09¶m=precip_p24&fhr=063&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160302+09+UTC&ps=model&use_mins=no&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Going to be interesting to see what the NAM does today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 When the gfs is on board with the cras, it probably should be tossed. Seriously need a "like button" in here. ;-) Wouldn't it be great if after all the swan dives into an empty pool yesterday, we suddenly find out the pool was filled with 3-5" of fluff to break the fall? Still love if the the Euro would get a clue though. Today's model runs are the second most important runs of the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 0z ukie was very similar to the euro with a miss SE with coastal precip but some light stuff up front. Para euro is actually a bit nw of the op with heavier precip from the coastal close but still down in SeVa for the good stuff. It's better on the lead precip than the op with a fairly uniform .2 through much of thr area. As previously stated, euro ens are definitely "seeing" the possibility of the coastal stuff making it here but being so close to the event and not having majority support makes it hard to bite on anything more substantial than the light event we've talked about for days. RGEM looks similar to the ukie/euro camp but that's only an extrapolated guess because of range. Gfs being on an island this close in is rarely a good reason to adjust thoughts away from consensus. I'm hoping the gfs is right but we need to see basically all other guidance jump that way today which I'm pretty doubtful of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Going to be interesting to see what the NAM does today. Considering that the key to the storm is how the trough to our west sets up, and that is within 24-36 hours (which is getting into the NAMS wheelhouse), the next couple runs will probably give us a good understanding of where it stands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 2, 2016 Author Share Posted March 2, 2016 If the 06Z GFS idea of a stacked low is correct I would not be surprised to see an adjustment of temps downwards and better ratios. That being said I would not throw away a 5-1 paste job. Just to be completely honest, all this talk could be null. I could see an almost shut out with this though the para euro does have around 2-3" for us with overrunning type precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 The NAM H5 orientaton looks much better @ 27 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Is it often that a storm goes from being a blip to one step away from something bigger inside of 60 hours? Or are we still within the acceptable window where that kind of thing can happen on the regular? Maybe not necessarily often, but if it's a "close" kind of setup (if that makes sense), then it doesn't take much for a model cycle to depict something that has a much greater impact in the shorter range. Even if in the grand scheme it's a small change. Placement of a coastal redevelopment is always a bit tricky, so seeing "jumps" one way or another isn't uncommon. Others have mentioned that if the ridge out west is a bit more amplified, it can help that low dig/deepen more, which would result in a more significant event potentially here. The 06Z GFS might have been a blip (we'll see) with its much higher amounts, but on the whole the GFS has trended wetter from early yesterday (including the parallel run). I don't know if the GFS has been an outlier (other models are drier?) or if it's got a better handle on the coastal placement and movement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Just to be completely honest, all this talk could be null. I could see an almost shut out with this though the para euro does have around 2-3" for us with overrunning type precip. I am still sticking with my 1-3 idea except for maybe south and east which might catch onto the edge of the low as it bombs.. It's fun to see the GFS solutions spitting out though and hope to see the other models join the party in the next few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 12Z 4K is juicy. This could be a little overperformer and a nice end to the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Not clear what it means overall, but the primary LP is about 75-100 miles farther South at 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 2, 2016 Author Share Posted March 2, 2016 Not clear what it means overall, but the primary LP is about 75-100 miles farther South at 30.Diggin further south and more tilt? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 NAM does look a little improved at H5 hour 36. SW dug a little more higher heights out in front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 New Srefs bumped the .5" line NW http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fsref%2F09%2Fsref_namer_063_precip_p24.gif&model=sref&area=namer&storm=&cycle=09¶m=precip_p24&fhr=063&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160302+09+UTC&ps=model&use_mins=no&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Pretty big jump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 NAM is also warmer at the bl fwiw. Borderline during the afternoon Thursday but should improve after dark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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