Snowman. Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Big improvement QPF wise for NOVA compared to 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Big improvement QPF wise for NOVA compared to 18z. I noticed the TT page had solid 2-4 with some areas 3-5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Going to be interesting with the deterministic op guidance. Euro is nearly a shutout, GFS is standing firm on advisory level event, NAM a coating, CMC a coating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 2, 2016 Author Share Posted March 2, 2016 Relatively speaking the Gfs is close to a decently big snow. Nice 3-4" snow for the cities. Not a lot of support on other models though for this atm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 The low will be turning and trying to gain latitude which is partly why it won't jump the way that might be anticipated These are usually good for DC. So one more and then tulips Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohwxguy Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 GFS QPF at DCA up to 0.43, but with surface temps marginal and generally disorganized precip leading to low intensity rates (just 0.16 btwn 00z - 06z & 0.17 btwn 06z - 12z), the main thing we have going is the overnight aspect. Still not feeling particularly excited about this event inside the beltway given the marginal surface temps unless system organization & track improves enough to bump up precipitation rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 6Z GFS... That is what I am talking about. Huge step in the right direction. Bob Chill might be interested again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Wow gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Holy crap. 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Reaching the point where ops are more important then the ensembles but here's my take. GEFS in the last two days has shifted where the trough goes neutral about 100 miles west as to where we are now seeing a more favorable track as well as giving the low the chance to intensify in time for our region. At this point it looks as if the southern and eastern regions are in the best position to benefit from this shift, if the temps cooperate. Don't think it would take much, per the GFS, to actually make this a nice event for our region. A further shift of the trough west 25-50 miles, southern low forming a touch further north and/or west or any of a myriad of subtle changes could do it. This could be a case of where we have a predicted 1-3 only to have them bump up the totals mid storm. EPS on the other hand has not been as bullish over the last two days. We have only seen very minor improvements at 500 and it has been reflected with the surface reflection of the low being to far south and east. That being said the 00Z EPS actually shows some promise. We have seen a slight adjustment North and West with the development and the track of the low and the clustering of the lows suggest we will see a further adjustment on the 12Z run. This is being reflected on the snowfall maps that have increased and are now showing a strip of heavier snow (2-3 inches) for the southern and eastern regions. I will also add that the Euro has had a tendency on occasion this winter to be too far south and east with systems. This could also possibly argue for a further adjustment N and W. All in all I like the improvements I have seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Def better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 0z Euro looked better. Has the heavier stuff a bit too far SE though. Peaked at the EPS members just to see...of the ones with a stronger system, there are just as many with the heavier snow a bit further north through parts of our area, as those that are close to the the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Holy crap. 6z. Would feel more comfortable if this was on the 12Z. Even though the Mets argue that the 06Z has comparable verification scores to the other runs I am still used to years ago when it would throw out wacky solutions quite often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Nice look on the 06Z GFS. It stacks the low through all levels off the coast of VA and MD. That would probably work for us. Now if we can just coax it another 50 miles north and west to get the DC/Balt corridor into the 2-3 inch qpf range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Whaat! Boom! That's a little more snow than I expected.. Ya.. Would like an NW trend on max qpf! But still.. Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Whaat! Boom! That's a little more snow than I expected.. Ya.. Would like an NW trend on max qpf! But still.. Wow hopefully its not convective feedback or something. I mean it really cranks up the low. skeptical but enthused. unless there is some GEFS member that went wild. it just seems really better really fast. Checked 850s and they look solid. what could go wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Concur...06z GFS even better than 00z. Continues trend. Interesting though it stands alone with its heavier snow prog yet it has been consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 LWX probability maps (well aware some don't like them) went up overnight on the max potential. Max 5-6. Most likely 1-2 so their confidence still on the lower accunulation end which makes sense to play this lower as the GFS stands on its own currently. Will be an interesting day to see how guidance plays out today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Morning happy hour with the 6z? Wow! Hard to believe though when the GFS stands basically alone. If only the Euro stood hand in hand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/06/gfs_namer_072_precip_p36.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Is the 0z Para out? How's it look? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 I thought I read in here the past few days how poor a model the gfs was irt to its huge shifts from one run to the next, though most are now on board verbatim with its latest solution? I would certainly take the 6z solution in a heartbeat but im not sure that i trust it. Appears to be the outlier attm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 06Z GEFS forms the low sooner in Alabama vs. the 00z which forms in S Carolina. Gives the low more time to intensify and tighten the track up the coast. 500mb is also now showing a closed low just off the mouth of the bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 I thought I read in here the past few days how poor a model the gfs was irt to its huge shifts from one run to the next, though most are now on board verbatim with its latest solution? I would certainly take the 6z solution in a heartbeat but im not sure that i trust it. Appears to be the outlier attm? The GFS has actually been solid the last 2 days with only slight adjustments from run to run. Doesn't mean it's right though. Edit: This is in reference to the 500's which have only seen minor changes though by looking at the surface it might seem other wise. Just goes to show that this storm is on a knifes edge where just the littlest thing can mean a big difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/06/gfs_namer_072_precip_p36.gif Good taste in weather porn, my man! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Changes seem to be occurring. Today might be the day for other models to play catch - up.12z runs should tell the tale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 There was talk in the last 2-3 days that this storm was not a up the coast type of storm. Of course nothing is set in stone now but if it turns out that it was to be one what will have changed on the models from a couple of days ago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 There was talk in the last 2-3 days that this storm was not a up the coast type of storm. Of course nothing is set in stone now but if it turns out that it was to be one what will have changed on the models from a couple of days ago? Stronger shortwave, more digging/amplification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 There was talk in the last 2-3 days that this storm was not a up the coast type of storm. Of course nothing is set in stone now but if it turns out that it was to be one what will have changed on the models from a couple of days ago? I am of the opinion that it has to do with the trough placement. Trough was going neutral too far east not giving the low any room to work with. The the last two days the GFS has shifted that a hundred miles west and I think we are now seeing the results. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 actually took a look at things this morning from Cobb for Westminster 00z NAM: 1.5" 06z NAM: .6" 00z GFS: 1.8" 06z GFS: 4.8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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