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Friday 3/4 "Last Gasp?" - Model Disco and Obs


DDweatherman

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GFS QPF at DCA up to 0.43, but with surface temps marginal and generally disorganized precip leading to low intensity rates (just 0.16 btwn 00z - 06z & 0.17 btwn 06z - 12z), the main thing we have going is the overnight aspect. Still not feeling particularly excited about this event inside the beltway given the marginal surface temps unless system organization & track improves enough to bump up precipitation rates.

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Reaching the point where ops are more important then the ensembles but here's my take. GEFS in the last two days has shifted where the trough goes neutral about 100 miles west as to where we are now seeing a more favorable track as well as giving the low the chance to intensify in time for our region. At this point it looks as if the southern and eastern regions are in the best position to benefit from this shift, if the temps cooperate. Don't think it would take much, per the GFS, to actually make this a nice event for our region. A further shift of the trough west 25-50 miles, southern low forming a touch further north and/or west or any of a myriad of subtle changes could do it. This could be a case of where we have a predicted 1-3 only to have them bump up the totals mid storm.

 

EPS on the other hand has not been as bullish over the last two days. We have only seen very minor improvements at 500 and it has been reflected with the surface reflection of the low being to far south and east. That being said the 00Z EPS actually shows some promise. We have seen a slight adjustment North and West with the development and the track of the low and the clustering of the lows suggest we will see a further adjustment on the 12Z run. This is being reflected on the snowfall maps that have increased and are now showing a strip of heavier snow (2-3 inches) for the southern and eastern regions. I will also add that the Euro has had a tendency on occasion this winter to be too far south and east with systems. This could also possibly argue for a further adjustment N and W.

 

All in all I like the improvements I have seen. 

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0z Euro looked better. Has the heavier stuff a bit too far SE though. Peaked at the EPS members just to see...of the ones with a stronger system, there are just as many with the heavier snow a bit further north through parts of our area, as those that are close to the the op.

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Whaat! Boom! That's a little more snow than I expected.. Ya.. Would like an NW trend on max qpf! But still.. Wow

hopefully its not convective feedback or something.  I mean it really cranks up the low.  skeptical but enthused.  unless there is some GEFS member that went wild.  it just seems really better really fast.  Checked 850s and they look solid.  what could go wrong

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LWX probability maps (well aware some don't like them) went up overnight on the max potential. Max 5-6. Most likely 1-2 so their confidence still on the lower accunulation end which makes sense to play this lower as the GFS stands on its own currently. Will be an interesting day to see how guidance plays out today.

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I thought I read in here the past few days how poor a model the gfs was irt to its huge shifts from one run to the next, though most are now on board verbatim with its latest solution? I would certainly take the 6z solution in a heartbeat but im not sure that i trust it. Appears to be the outlier attm?

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I thought I read in here the past few days how poor a model the gfs was irt to its huge shifts from one run to the next, though most are now on board verbatim with its latest solution? I would certainly take the 6z solution in a heartbeat but im not sure that i trust it. Appears to be the outlier attm?

The GFS has actually been solid the last 2 days with only slight adjustments from run to run. Doesn't mean it's right though.

 

Edit: This is in reference to the 500's which have only seen minor changes though by looking at the surface it might seem other wise. Just goes to show that this storm is on a knifes edge where just the littlest thing can mean a big difference.

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There was talk in the last 2-3 days that this storm was not a up the coast type of storm. Of course nothing is set in stone now but if it turns out that it was to be one what will have changed on the models from a couple of days ago?

Stronger shortwave, more digging/amplification.

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There was talk in the last 2-3 days that this storm was not a up the coast type of storm. Of course nothing is set in stone now but if it turns out that it was to be one what will have changed on the models from a couple of days ago?

I am of the opinion that it has to do with the trough placement. Trough was going neutral too far east not giving the low any room to work with. The the last two days the GFS has shifted that a hundred miles west and I think we are now seeing the results. .

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