Friday 3/4 "Last Gasp?" - Model Disco and Obs

[psuhoffman]

You're the very man that used to always say that models don't trend so much north as they do west.

Can we get it to start north a little west? LOL

I said the opposite actually. Many years ago when we needed a west trend I pointed out that getting a north trend is a lot easier then west. That was with the old gfs that had a huge cold bias so the boundary would usually trend north. That often gave the illusion of a west trend since the coast extends east as you go north. A true west trend usually means a less progressive longwave pattern and usually that went against model biases. That was a long time ago with different models. I have way less feel for trends with these newer versions. They are better but they also seem to jump around a bit more and have less clear tendencies to me. Perhaps that's a function of their higher resolution. Perhaps I just am not as familiar with them yet. I almost preferred the old guidance as it was flawed but flawed in a way I understood and could correct for their biases. This year there actually has been a clear west trend on the longwave pattern with storms cutting more then guidance suggested from a week out. I have no idea if this continues to trend our way or stops to just tease us but the seasonal tendency is on our side.

[WEATHER53]

We will do ok with this, it's a different set up than a true transfer, it will be more of a pass by low that moves eastward from KY and maintains the precipitation shield to the north as it moves ene and south of us

[WinterWxLuvr]

I said the opposite actually. Many years ago when we needed a west trend I pointed out that getting a north trend is a lot easier then west. That was with the old gfs that had a huge cold bias so the boundary would usually trend north. That often gave the illusion of a west trend since the coast extends east as you go north. A true west trend usually means a less progressive longwave pattern and usually that went against model biases. That was a long time ago with different models. I have way less feel for trends with these newer versions. They are better but they also seem to jump around a bit more and have less clear tendencies to me. Perhaps that's a function of their higher resolution. Perhaps I just am not as familiar with them yet. I almost preferred the old guidance as it was flawed but flawed in a way I understood and could correct for their biases. This year there actually has been a clear west trend on the longwave pattern with storms cutting more then guidance suggested from a week out. I have no idea if this continues to trend our way or stops to just tease us but the seasonal tendency is on our side.

Ok. I barely remember when my memory was better...haha

[Ji]

We will do ok with this, it's a different set up than a true transfer, it will be more of a pass by low that moves eastward from KY and maintains the precipitation shield to the north as it moves ene and south of us

ive been watching Pittsburgh temp all day!

[Wonderdog]

12zpara GFS had much better precip coverage and was even closer to something bigger than operational GFS.

http://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=081ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_081_precip_p24.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&param=precip_p24&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160301+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=

That is a nice look. Just a little more to the southwest or slower. It really blossoms in the Atlantic.

[WEATHER53]

ive been watching Pittsburgh temp all day!

Thanks buddy and I am glad we have done better lately but it is worth remembering that you were instrumental in running off WxRisk and Cosgrove which did not exactly encourage Walt Drag and some others

[psuhoffman]

ive been watching Pittsburgh temp all day!

lol

[mitchnick]

From this point on, model discussion only please.

Fwiw, srefs looked a bit better than last run.

[WinterWxLuvr]

From this point on, model discussion only please.

Fwiw, srefs looked a bit better than last run.

I thought so too.

[ers-wxman1]

Would an administrator or someone please start a new thread called March 3-4 and name it storm mode and warn about banter? I cannot do it myself. I appreciate it.

[Bob Chill]

Would an administrator or someone please start a new thread called March 3-4 and name it storm mode and warn about banter? I cannot do it myself. I appreciate it.

It will be taken care of in this thread.

18z gefs actually had some upside looks with the coastal. 3-4 members take it up the coast. Getting late in the game for ensembles but it's a new twist and worth mentioning

[ers-wxman1]

It will be taken care of in this thread.

18z gefs actually had some upside looks with the coastal. 3-4 members take it up the coast. Getting late in the game for ensembles but it's a new twist and worth mentioning

That's great to see. I noticed a hint of that shift on the 12z GEFS as well.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

It will be taken care of in this thread.

18z gefs actually had some upside looks with the coastal. 3-4 members take it up the coast. Getting late in the game for ensembles but it's a new twist and worth mentioning

That's great to see. I noticed a hint of that shift on the 12z GEFS as well.

It was mentioned or noted earlier that the 12Z para GFS hinted at a better look on the coastal as well, for whatever it's worth.

[Thanatos_I_Am]

It will be taken care of in this thread.

18z gefs actually had some upside looks with the coastal. 3-4 members take it up the coast. Getting late in the game for ensembles but it's a new twist and worth mentioning

Any big hits in there? Was curious but don't have access to the snow maps.

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[AmericanWxFreak]

Any big hits in there? Was curious but don't have access to the snow maps.

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Yes those 3-4 he mentions are decent hits

[psuhoffman]

Nam just took a step in the wrong direction. Can't really afford many of those at this stage. But it is the nam so...

[Bob Chill]

Any big hits in there? Was curious but don't have access to the snow maps.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

3 have a 6+ stripe from dc and northeastward.

[BaltimoreWxGuy]

Its pretty sad when we're hanging our hat on 3 GFS ensembles 60 hours out...Cmon guys, its over...lets hope for a coating, we got our 20-30" snowfall this season.

[Bob Chill]

Its pretty sad when we're hanging our hat on 3 GFS ensembles 60 hours out...Cmon guys, its over...lets hope for a coating, we got our 20-30" snowfall this season.

I haven't wavered from a minor event. Just pointing out that some guidance shows some upside that it didn't before. Your flight is safe. No doubt about that. Haha

[BaltimoreWxGuy]

I haven't wavered from a minor event. Just pointing out that some guidance shows some upside that it didn't before. Your flight is safe. No doubt about that. Haha

I can handle an hour or 2 delay in the airport bar lol..but yes, I doubt that happens too. This is a bachelor party by the way, so hence my hard rooting.

[psuhoffman]

I haven't wavered from a minor event. Just pointing out that some guidance shows some upside that it didn't before. Your flight is safe. No doubt about that. Haha

I think the odds of us getting virtually nothing has increased the last 24 hours but so have the odds of a more significant event as well.

[ers-wxman1]

00z GFS H5 pattern not bad at 30hr. Nice upper ridging out west. Trough digging a bit

[ers-wxman1]

HR 48...looking progressive vs neutral trough.

[ers-wxman1]

Upper ridge out west flattens and shifts east a bit by HR 48....trough not quite amplified enough. Looks like this could be another progressive low off the coast.

[ers-wxman1]

H5 pattern looks better than 12 and 18z runs.

[psuhoffman]

Close enough to keep an eye on it but didn't really trend better. Virtually the same as 18z with the important features.

[ers-wxman1]

GFS is a 2-4/3-5 event and not far off from becoming something more than that. H5 pattern more amplified out west to start but ridging does break down a bit fast lending toward a more progressive vs amped trough in the east. Nonetheless there is good energy and the low develops a bit quicker. Still bombs out a bit east but closer in than last run.

[mitchnick]

Improved qpf signature on the gfs. Close, but no cigar...yet?

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=069ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_069_precip_p24.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&param=precip_p24&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160302+00+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model

[psuhoffman]

H5 pattern looks better than 12 and 18z runs.

way better then 12z. Marginally better then 18z had hoped for a more significant improvement though.

[ers-wxman1]

Improved qpf signature on the gfs. Close, but no cigar...yet?

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=069ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_069_precip_p24.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&param=precip_p24&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160302+00+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model

Thanks for posting the QPF. It looks better. Not quite at a phased system in our area but each run of the GFS is showing some improvements in the upper pattern.