DDweatherman Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Time to test and see if my old days of topic starting success still exist. Have had a few go my way over the years. Here's to the good times.Euro vs CMC? Ian is celebrating that's for sure if he's rooting not for no snow and is hugging dear euro.#itshappening? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Should have waited for tonight's EURO to run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 I thought the Euro was close to being real nice. Clipper looks legit behind it as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 If it wasn't me, your the next I'd want starting the thread. LETS ROCK THIS ONE HOME!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Time to test and see if my old days of topic starting success still exist. Have had a few go my way over the years. Here's to the good times. Euro vs CMC? Ian is celebrating that's for sure if he's rooting not for no snow and is hugging dear euro. #itshappening? To be fair, I really don't care what happens other than the fact that Fri morning is my on call so it'll suck to get up at 5a for something that is lame. By March the last thing I really want is snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Comparing the 0z euro run to today's 12z it was actually a decent shift NW (and a bit quicker). The 0z para was a bit (and I mean a little bit) NW of the op. I guess it was a good run and there's plenty of time to not assume a northern edge fringe job is highly likely. Not a very exciting storm either way. I'll be happy with whatever and hope for the best. Then I'll be full on rooting for 60's and sunshine for the rest of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Comparing the 0z euro run to today's 12z it was actually a decent shift NW (and a bit quicker). The 0z para was a bit (and I mean a little bit) NW of the op. I guess it was a good run and there's plenty of time to not assume a northern edge fringe job is highly likely. Not a very exciting storm either way. I'll be happy with whatever and hope for the best. Then I'll be full on rooting for 60's and sunshine for the rest of the month. Think we could will this into a semi exciting 4-6? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 6"+ or nothing. I ready have enough mud to clean up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Think we could will this into a semi exciting 4-6? Nothing is set in stone obviously. Sure, it could happen and so could a non-event. GEFS upped the odds of an "event". The 0z EPS kinda sucked. We'll know more in an hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Upside isn't great in general. All comes down to how much amplification the vort can squeeze out of a notsogreat setup. At least it's March. Time of year probably helps a little with a setup like this. Mid Jan would probably be virga. haha I wonder how much of an effect sea surface temperatures have on this storm. The Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic have both cooled considerably since just before the blizzard, and large areas now have negative SST anomalies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichmondTarHeel Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Too much reliance on the euro. The euro has not done well with several events this year. It's one of many pieces of forecast guidance available. It has it's pros and cons like all other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 I wonder how much of an effect sea surface temperatures have on this storm. The Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic have both cooled considerably since just before the blizzard, and large areas now have negative SST anomalies. I wouldn't think SST's matter much. Maybe if it was a coastal climber or something like that. This is a progressive vort that never really turns. Precip will mostly be tied to dynamics with the vort pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Too much reliance on the euro. The euro has not done well with several events this year. It's one of many pieces of forecast guidance available. It has it's pros and cons like all other guidance. Does this mean your IN? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 You guys are troopers. Ok. 3 inches or bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 To be fair, I really don't care what happens other than the fact that Fri morning is my on call so it'll suck to get up at 5a for something that is lame. By March the last thing I really want is snow. It is March. You may get two chances to cover two lame events. How about that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 I know very little about verification scores so take this with a grain of salt....The latest scores I see floating around are for N Hem h5. The Euro kills it. Euro can nail things at h5 in the Northern Hemisphere but we are asking it to be just as accurate with surface temps and location of a vort pass over a geographical area the size of a gnat when compared to the N Hem. Im just a weenie weather/model watcher but I have not been impressed this winter with the euro... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Does this mean your IN? Just a statement in general. The euro was the first model to show a northern track with this giving us nearly warning level snow and now it's south. It was also one of the models that gave us 6-10" during the bust event back in early February. It was also one guidance member that backed off on snow totals leading up to the Jan 22/23 event...only to be too dry. It's a good model but it certainly has its weaknesses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 All guidance has pros and cons. People tend to disregard the NAM. I think it can serve a good purpose especially inside of 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Z-Cast Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Based off what the Euro Op and Para are saying- if this wasn't March, would there have been a storm thread made 5 days out for this system in D/J/F? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Based off what the Euro Op and Para are saying- if this wasn't March, would there have been a storm thread made 5 days out for this system in D/J/F? It's not the most favorable storm environment and uncertain situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Euro ens pretty supportive of a 1-3/2-4 kind of deal. Not much upside in the mix overall. Better than 0z. That's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Someone will get snow in the Mid-Atlantic! That makes it Legit! May be south of you and me, but it could snow! Legit threat.. How much.. I dunno! I tell ya what though, I would not even be here if it were not for the Euro showing snow! So let's stop the debate on whether there should be a thread and how much the Euro vs others suck and let's focus on what they do say and wishcast the Euro of a few days back on top of us as the real event! Nino needs to do it ninoing and pump up teh low a bit on moisture! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Euro ens pretty supportive of a 1-3/2-4 kind of deal. Not much upside in the mix overall. Better than 0z. That's for sure. Sounds nice... and sounds pretty much like teh GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Euro ens pretty supportive of a 1-3/2-4 kind of deal. Not much upside in the mix overall. Better than 0z. That's for sure. I'm interested in the "Mitch index"--------mean over or under 2". MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Sounds nice... and sounds pretty much like teh GEFS One last wintry weekend. I'm in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Sounds nice... and sounds pretty much like teh GEFS There's about a half dozen good hits in SEVA. Those have the highest totals. Seems like a good chance for us to get something out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Too much reliance on the euro. The euro has not done well with several events this year. It's one of many pieces of forecast guidance available. It has it's pros and cons like all other guidance. No offense but you've said the CMC was worth considering before. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Also, no **** on the Euro. Double lol. This place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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