Thundersnow12 Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 18z NAM with more of a defo like feature for northern IL between 12-18z it looks like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 NAM's going to be stronger this run. 996mb between ERI and CLE at hour 32. Could pay off. EDIT: It does. Cold sector precip much more impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 The temp gradient continues to increase. Currently in the upper 20s in NW IA, and near 70 in SW IA. Yeah very impressive.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 One thing I will say to Alek... On the 24hr NAM, it does look like there's some lake enhancement smack over Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 These HRRR runs you're posting have got me feeling like the current warnings aren't going to work out anywhere in IL. However, I do recall you riding some of these amped hi-res runs with the event last week, only to wake up early Thursday, bid congrats to the Euro and other flatter models, and get on with your day. Not saying either will happen (and I've been feeling Wisconsin takes this one for awhile), but you're putting a lot of stock in those Rapid Refresh runs right now. i don't think northern lake county will do as grim as the HRRR is showing (ride the euro) but i think hopes of a late november repeat are fading Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 18z NAM with more of a defo like feature for northern IL between 12-18z it looks like Was just pointing that out...looks like LE to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 One thing I will say to Alek... On the 24hr NAM, it does look like there's some lake enhancement smack over Chicago. i don't think this is cold enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 N/NE winds in Racine/Milwaukee area. Geosland is about to get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 i don't think this is cold enough It improves a bit at hour 24. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Good points. I hate to say this based on your luck lately (and I have a vested interest in where you live because I'm up there all the time as much of my family is there), but I think you might be sitting pretty for this one. Best stuff might be a little closer to Holland, but I don't think you'll be screwed this time around. Famous last words. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 18Z NAM sure looks nice for the southern half of Lower Michigan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 N/NE winds in Racine/Milwaukee area. Geosland is about to get it. Yep - down to 37 at MKE. Still 51 at RFD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 18z NAM with more of a defo like feature for northern IL between 12-18z it looks like Check out 4km Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Yes Please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 One thing I will say to Alek... On the 24hr NAM, it does look like there's some lake enhancement smack over Chicago. Mentioned in LOT 18z aviation update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 4k NAM rocking the Grand Rapids area! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 996mb between ERI and CLE at hour 32. Could pay off. EDIT: It does. Cold sector precip much more impressive. Hard trend towards the GEM and UKIE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 IDK, it's a nice feature to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 IDK, it's a nice feature to see. sure, 1-3" from a quick hitting lake enhanced defo is better than DAB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luftfeuchtigkeit Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 The temp gradient continues to increase. Currently in the upper 20s in NW IA, and near 70 in SW IA. Dewpoint at Prairie du Chien in SW Wisconsin is down to 0 with a temperature of 40. Temp is going to continue to fall, but that's still going to be some serious dry air to overcome once the precip starts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Off topic, but taken out of context - this post and reply combo gets a laugh out of me at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Temps are beginning to fall here, no wind though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Yeah, we are boned unless that cold front suddenly decides to sink another 50-75 miles Front is hauling south now. Already into Kenosha. HRRR is too far north I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Interesting...EC upgraded zones SE from a Toronto to St. Thomas line to a warning, but left areas to the north as a watch. I guess they were concerned about the EURO/GFS/NAM solutions...and didn't catch the 18z NAM capitulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Check out 4km nam4km_ref_frzn_ncus_9.png Finally sees the LEhS/LES... 49° here and 36° in downtown Kenosha right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Interesting...EC upgraded zones SE from a Toronto to St. Thomas line to a warning, but left areas to the north as a watch. I guess they were concerned about the EURO/GFS/NAM solutions...and didn't catch the 18z NAM capitulation. The 12z EPS mean(and most of its members) are a bit further NW than the OP euro which takes a weird turn east across PA. The mean would be closer to the NAM/UKIE/GEM suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 EC pulls the trigger... 3:24 PM EST Monday 29 February 2016 Winter storm warning in effect for: City of TorontoA major winter storm is expected.A deepening low pressure system will give heavy snow and blowing snow. The snow will begin Tuesday midday and intensify into the evening with the heaviest amounts of snow falling Tuesday night. Strong northeasterly winds will also give blowing snow especially in exposed areas and along the Lake Ontario shoreline due to gusts of 70 kilometres per hour. About 2 to 5 centimeters can be expected Tuesday afternoon and then 10 to 20 centimeters during the night. As the wind shifts early Wednesday morning to northerly the snow will end. Regions near Lake Erie may also experience several hours of freezing rain especially Tuesday night. If the freezing rain stays to the south of Niagara then they may see the highest amounts of snow. Surfaces such as highways, roads, walkways and parking lots may become difficult to navigate due to accumulating snow. There may be a significant impact on rush hour traffic in urban areas.Winter storm warnings are issued when multiple types of severe winter weather are expected to occur together.Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to [email protected] or tweet reports to #ONStorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 For my call I guess I'll go with around 2" of snow, preceded by a bit of freezing rain/sleet. Even with the super tight gradient and all that, SREF mean somehow was almost dead on with last week's storm here and the 15z mean has about 2". If mixed precip doesn't pan out and/or deformation zone precip is more robust, may be able to overachieve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 For my call I guess I'll go with around 2" of snow, preceded by a bit of freezing rain/sleet. Even with the super tight gradient and all that, SREF mean somehow was almost dead on with last week's storm here and the 15z mean has about 2". If mixed precip doesn't pan out and/or deformation zone precip is more robust, may be able to overachieve. Wow really? That'd be around my call. Maybe im too pessimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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