snowcaine Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 You know, I haven't even looked into that. Cursory look suggests it'd be cold enough, at least initially. Mesoscale models off of BUF's website not indicating much. Guessing inversion heights are too low or airmass is too dry. Still something to keep an eye on. Lake temperatures around +5, going to need 850s around -5 to -10 and we should be able to achieve that for most of the easterly wind portion of the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 torching Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 You know, I haven't even looked into that. Cursory look suggests it'd be cold enough, at least initially. Inversion heights look very shallow(~950mb). Flow is out of the SW once you get above 850-800mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Lake temperatures around +5, going to need 850s around -5 to -10 and we should be able to achieve that for most of the easterly wind portion of the event. Yeah, but sometimes that's not enough. Don't have time check the soundings now but the inversion height may be more like 900mb or lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Inversion heights look very shallow(~950mb). Flow is out of the SW once you get above 850-800mb. Yeah, have seen some multibands producing -SN with inversion heights that low but I wouldn't expect a ton of add'l accums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Lake enhancement in hamilton east more than toronto imo. The wind during the majority of the storm is ne to nnw. How does toronto get lake enhancement with that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Lake enhancement in hamilton east more than toronto imo. The wind during the majority of the storm is ne to nnw. How does toronto get lake enhancement with that? The flow initially is 90 (like before 21z Tues) on the NAM and GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 HRRR continues to get warmer, IP now up to Geos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowcaine Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Lake enhancement in hamilton east more than toronto imo. The wind during the majority of the storm is ne to nnw. How does toronto get lake enhancement with that? The start of the storm has easterly winds. Wouldn't be surprised to pick up an inch or so of extra snow. I do believe the 6-7" calls are too low for this one. But given the winter I understand the conservativism. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 GEFS ensemble QPF. Looks like the average would be at or a little below 0.75" at YYZ. A few sub 0.50"s, a few ~1.00"s. The mean(via wxbell) has just under 0.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 The flow initially is 90 (like before 21z Tues) on the NAM and GFS. Yeah i know...but the synoptic lift is barely there during that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Yeah i know...but the synoptic lift is barely there during that time. Yeah, I'm not claiming there'll be any notable enhancement. See the post re: the inversion heights and lack of rh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Yeah, I'm not claiming there'll be any notable enhancement. See the post re: the inversion heights and lack of rh. The best lake enhancement signature is actually roc wednesday morning with -10 omega near 900mb. Not even showing much in hamilton or niagara falls which surprised me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 HRRR continues to get warmer, IP now up to Geos Rainer call might be in play if this keeps up. In all seriousness, would've been a pretty good ice setup in the metro with more precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 plumes down again at ORD with tons <1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 plumes down again at ORD with tons <1" This is going to be a light sleet event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 The mean(via wxbell) has just under 0.7" Seems to agree with the EURO. Pretty good consensus for the 0.6"-0.8" range, GGEM is just way too wet unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 This is going to be a light sleet event. thinking maybe a quick dusting in the weenie band, followed by light sleet with the main fgen over MKE, and then an inch or so of snow as the main upper air disturbance moves through tomorrow morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 thinking maybe a quick dusting in the weenie band, followed by light sleet with the main fgen over MKE, and then a quick inch or so of snow as the main upper air disturbance moves through tomorrow morning That's been my grid forecast all along. Midway area is progged for a light mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Seems to agree with the EURO. Pretty good consensus for the 0.6"-0.8" range, GGEM is just way too wet unfortunately. If the CCB ends up more robust as modelled on some previous runs then it could be correct. At the moment, the vast majority of guidance waits a little longer for it to intensify so the heaviest snows are displaced SE. Floor of ~5" IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 That's been my grid forecast all along. Midway area is progged for a light mix. Yeah, we are boned unless that cold front suddenly decides to sink another 50-75 miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Yeah, we are boned unless that cold front suddenly decides to sink another 50-75 miles Geos magnet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 That's been my grid forecast all along. Midway area is progged for a light mix. HRRR doesn't even have an inch for Geos by 9z tuesday and not much more to come after that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Lol....does the heavier precip on the band even move east, or does it just sit over Iowa? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 NAM's going to be stronger this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 HRRR doesn't even have an inch for Geos by 9z tuesday and not much more to come after that These HRRR runs you're posting have got me feeling like the current warnings aren't going to work out anywhere in IL. However, I do recall you riding some of these amped hi-res runs with the event last week, only to wake up early Thursday, bid congrats to the Euro and other flatter models, and get on with your day. Not saying either will happen (and I've been feeling Wisconsin takes this one for awhile), but you're putting a lot of stock in those Rapid Refresh runs right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 NAM's going to be stronger this run. And a little slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 The temp gradient continues to increase. Currently in the upper 20s in NW IA, and near 70 in SW IA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 These HRRR runs you're posting have got me feeling like the current warnings aren't going to work out anywhere in IL. However, I do recall you riding some of these amped hi-res runs with the event last week, only to wake up early Thursday, bid congrats to the Euro and other flatter models, and get on with your day. Not saying either will happen (and I've been feeling Wisconsin takes this one for awhile), but you're putting a lot of stock in those Rapid Refresh runs right now. Good points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 The temp gradient continues to increase. Currently in the upper 20s in NW IA, and near 70 in SW IA. Wow. That's bound to create some instability! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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