RyanDe680 Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Impressive winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 GGEM's been coming in hot the last few runs. GFS went a little south and pushed the bulls eye closer to BUF. UKMET looks closer to the GGEM...with total QPF of 0.8-1.0". Would only take a nudge to get us back into the heart with the GFS. Overall, I like where we sit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Temps dropping nicely in WI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 GGEM I hope the southern Ontario folks are ready for the big one! Would be a nice way to end this dread full winter... Mixing still is on my mind as per the NAM and GFS in the region but the colder trends in Chicago area and the GEM might be a good sign here. Could it be a Gem GFS blend once again for the correct outcome? Time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Looks like an easy call to upgrade the GTA to a warning. Not sure if EC will pull the trigger this afternoon or give it another model cycle and wait 'til overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 The band as shown on the RAP would be torture for me. 5 miles to the south gets blasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Would be a nice way to end this dread full winter... Mixing still is on my mind as per the NAM and GFS in the region but the colder trends in Chicago area and the GEM might be a good sign here. Could it be a Gem GFS blend once again for the correct outcome? Time will tell. Wouldn't be surprised to see you stay all snow there. The air mass moving in means business. We'll see what the EURO shows next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 4-8" in my grid. 4km NAM agrees with the 12km. Hoping you get something out of this. lol. Feast or famine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 I hope the southern Ontario folks are ready for the big one! Overdue there for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Hopefully the front hangs up near Milwaukee for a bit. I can't afford the band to shift south at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 What is your seasonal total out there in Toronto? I know you guys have been starved this winter really badly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Looks like an easy call to upgrade the GTA to a warning. Not sure if EC will pull the trigger this afternoon or give it another model cycle and wait 'til overnight. Liquid-snow ratios have been modelled to be very good, so even if some of the lower end precipitation outputs verify I think we would still get to warning criteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 What is your seasonal total out there in Toronto? I know you guys have been starved this winter really badly. 12.0" on the nose for downtown Toronto. 12.8" at YYZ. Outside chance we match our WTD snowfall with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Liquid-snow ratios have been modelled to be very good, so even if some of the lower end precipitation outputs verify I think we would still get to warning criteria. Yup. NAM/GFS QPF on 10:1 would still yield 6-7". And given the way this winter's gone, that's going to seem like a lot more than it actually is to the public. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFan Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 12.0" on the nose for downtown Toronto. 12.8" at YYZ. Outside chance we match our WTD snowfall with this storm. Wow. Didn't realize it had been that bad. Guess I probably picked a good week to come to Toronto then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Wow. Didn't realize it had been that bad. Guess I probably picked a good week to come to Toronto then. If the models uptick their QPF to AOA 1" and bring us into what is big dog territory for us (12-16") it's going to be very tempting to jump into the car tomorrow and head home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 punt.jpeg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
London snowsquall Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 12.0" on the nose for downtown Toronto. 12.8" at YYZ. Outside chance we match our WTD snowfall with this storm. Unfortunate you are here in London and not in TO if the models are to be believed, and that is a big IF. Synoptic hell in London or TO, very little to choose from either place. Hard to take the GGEM seriously with both places over 10 inches - maybe cut it in half...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 punt.jpeg Blehhh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Unfortunate you are here in London and not in TO if the models are to be believed, and that is a big IF. Synoptic hell in London or TO, very little to choose from either place. Hard to take the GGEM seriously with both places over 10 inches - maybe cut it in half...... Think 3-6" is a good call here for now. The differences in the NCEP guidance and the GEM/UKIE becomes more pronounced in SW Ontario so I'm hesitant to go north of that attm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 punt.jpeg Get ready! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Would love to see Toronto double their seasonal total in under 24 hours. Front is making headway towards Saukville now. Fwiw: the HRRR can amp things up a tad too much sometimes. 1" of moisture - bring it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 It's a shame, IWXs progged 0.1-0.3 of ice would reach there ice storm warning criteria but the snow makes it WWA tier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Get ready! hrw-nmmb_conus_024_sim_radar.gif just not my winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 just not my winter Made worse by some close misses. Some steep mid level lapse rates accompany that area of precip tomorrow morning so it could be exciting at least for a short while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 New 15z 24hr HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 4 km has the mix line right over Chicago at 12z tomorrow. Some other models have it a bit farther south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 EURO in the same location with f-gen band on either side of the state line. Higher qpf amounts this time. About the same actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 EURO in the same location with f-gen band on either side of the state line. Higher qpf amounts this time. Hey Geos, if you could fill me on what the EURO shows qpf or snowfall wise for Toronto when it gets there, I'd appreciate it. Gotta split soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Made worse by some close misses. Some steep mid level lapse rates accompany that area of precip tomorrow morning so it could be exciting at least for a short while. it's pretty much fgen or bust, an hour of SN tomorrow morning = zzzzzz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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