Geos Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Bring it. Still feel the core of the band will lift into the first tier of southern WI counties for the longest period. Do think we both might be good for a few quick inches. I still don't know where UMB WX is located... my 7 month old daughter keeps me from dropping into the board as much as I'd like. I'm blaming her. On Racine's north end to be exact. at the last part. I think you're good for more than a couple inches usually these bands train over the same areas. GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 GFS just barely ticked SE with the low...enough to take YYZ out of the heart of the best band. Still almost 11" based on Kuchera ratios...but that's like on 0.65" of liquid so I really don't buy it verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Pretty amazing how the orientation and breadth of the snow axis has changed so dramatically over the past four days and any snow output has come to rely entirely on that frontogenesis band... winter of 2015-2016 in a nutshell. Placement, at least locally, looks to be pretty close, but the cause of the snowfall (defo zone vs narrow fronto band) totally flip-flopped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 I think DVN will extend the WSWs across their northern tier as well after seeing the GFS extend its totals further west just like the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Looks like a non-event in Michigan. Congrats to the Wisconsin/Iowa crew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Winter15-16.jpg Pretty amazing how the orientation and breadth of the snow axis has changed so dramatically over the past four days and any snow output has come to rely entirely on that frontogenesis band... winter of 2015-2016 in a nutshell. Placement, at least locally, looks to be pretty close, but the cause of the snowfall (defo zone vs narrow fronto band) totally flip-flopped. Bingo - great post. The theme of this winter for the MW/OV in general is very little snow...and when it does snow, it's poorly modeled and inevitably ends up falling over an incredibly small area...and even then, it melts a few days later. Sure, it's easy to blame the strong El Nino...but I would argue it has been much worse than imagined, especially as some were forecasting a "decent" winter by El Nino standards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 4-8" in my grid. 4km NAM agrees with the 12km. Hoping you get something out of this. I'm hoping too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 I'm working winter weather desk at LOT today. Here's a plot of 850 mb frontogenesis at 08z tonight from the 15z RAP. Definitely farther south than 12z NAM and even GFS with placement of fgen band. At least our northern tier of counties is gonna get smoked tonight and possibly I-88 and north if RAP is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 I'm working winter weather desk at LOT today. Here's a plot of 850 mb frontogenesis at 08z tonight from the 15z RAP. Definitely farther south than 12z NAM and even GFS with placement of fgen band. At least our northern tier of counties is gonna get smoked tonight and possibly I-88 and north if RAP is right. Out of curiosity, what do you think about the IP/ZR threat for Chicago and south of I-88? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 I'm working winter weather desk at LOT today. Here's a plot of 850 mb frontogenesis at 08z tonight from the 15z RAP. Definitely farther south than 12z NAM and even GFS with placement of fgen band. At least our northern tier of counties is gonna get smoked tonight and possibly I-88 and north if RAP is right. Do you think NWS will eventually add Cook County (for the far northern portion) and the second tier of northernmost counties to the WSWarning if more models look like the RAP/that scenario works out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Out of curiosity, what do you think about the IP/ZR threat for Chicago and south of I-88?I think that precip is likely to be fairly light south of the fgen band due to subsidence. With that being said, 925 mb temps get very cold so I'm thinking sleet is more likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 I'm working winter weather desk at LOT today. Here's a plot of 850 mb frontogenesis at 08z tonight from the 15z RAP. Definitely farther south than 12z NAM and even GFS with placement of fgen band. At least our northern tier of counties is gonna get smoked tonight and possibly I-88 and north if RAP is right. Muy interesante. Basically two counties wide. Does it remain pretty stationary during the event or lift north to Milwaukee? Loving the cell phone pic of your monitor at the office - great to have you and your input on this board! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Do you think NWS will eventually add Cook County (for the far northern portion) and the second tier of northernmost counties?It's possible if the RAP is close to correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Muy interesante. Basically two counties wide. Does it remain pretty stationary during the event or lift north to Milwaukee? Loving the cell phone pic of your monitor at the office - great to have you and your input on this board! RAP has it nearly stationary with maxed out values from 5-9z and that's as far out as it goes on AWIPS. Undulates south at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 HRRR drops temps along the lakeshore 20 degrees in 2 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 On the theme of frontogenesis - the current temp and DP gradient in the MW is impressive already...and will only get better this afternoon as the southern areas warm up. INL: -2/-14 St. Cloud: 14/-6 MSP: 19/-7 ORD: 40/29 Joliet: 44/32 STL: 46/34 Not sure how this compares to what is modeled... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 CMC looks solidish for ORD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 To go along with what RC posted, here's the NAM frontogenesis map valid 9z so one hour later than the RAP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 pass^ heavy pellets with 2M temps in the upper 20s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 pass^ heavy pellets with 2M temps in the upper 20s It's weird how in most models I'm barely in the snow, just about the freezing rain haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 It's weird how in most models I'm barely in the snow, just about the freezing rain haha the p-type maps on the HRRR are weird, you actually switch to IP as 2M temps drop into the upper 20s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 the p-type maps on the HRRR are weird, you actually switch to IP as 2M temps drop into the upper 20s LOL. I agree, I don't really think most of the short range models are handling p-type well thus far, they seem inconsistent and weird. I'm mainly looking at them for placement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 I'm working winter weather desk at LOT today. Here's a plot of 850 mb frontogenesis at 08z tonight from the 15z RAP. Definitely farther south than 12z NAM and even GFS with placement of fgen band. At least our northern tier of counties is gonna get smoked tonight and possibly I-88 and north if RAP is right. That is one wide band RC. Will be posting observations tonight as long as I can stay awake. You can see the front up by Manitowoc, WI right now. 20s in back of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Will be posting observations tonight as long as I can stay awake. Same here! Hopefully the band will be wide enough and in the right position to smoke both of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 GGEM I hope the southern Ontario folks are ready for the big one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Louieloy102 Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Cautiously optimistic. Still very warm here, waiting for the pneumonia front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 I think that precip is likely to be fairly light south of the fgen band due to subsidence. With that being said, 925 mb temps get very cold so I'm thinking sleet is more likely. Temp profiles definitely looked more like sleet than freezing rain for Chicago when I looked at prior runs in BUFKIT. The southern fringes could be questionable, especially if enough mid level drying occurs and hurts flake production, but should be very little precip anyway. I'm curious what happens tomorrow morning though as another round of forcing swings through. Could be a zone from near the city and south where it's the kitchen sink. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 GGEM I hope the southern Ontario folks are ready for the big one! GGEM's been coming in hot the last few runs. GFS went a little south and pushed the bulls eye closer to BUF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Cautiously optimistic. Still very warm here, waiting for the pneumonia front. Looks like the front will arrive on time, maybe slightly earlier. Temps tanking in Sheboygan now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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