Ottawa Blizzard Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Even the RAP has Toronto in pretty good shape for about 8" of snow...but man what a cutoff to the south <1" just beyond Hamilton's border. Very different from Anthony Farnell's call, which has Niagara in the 10" plus zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Already getting consistent light snow. Good sign re: saturation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Very different from Anthony Farnell's call, which has Niagara in the 10" plus zone. I checked his twitter account. He switched his forecast yesterday evening to put the bullseye north of the City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 bustola for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 NAM back to being drier. No matter. Nowcast time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Already getting consistent light snow. Good sign re: saturation. YYZ getting some steady -SN now too. Little earlier than I thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Asides from some sleet, we got ZERO precip from this storm. I can bet hawkeye is biting his nails from this bust... It's no big deal. I expected a pretty sharp southern edge and Cedar Rapids was already out of this one. Also, not having to clean driveways is always nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 The NAM keeps moving this north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowcaine Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 The NAM keeps moving this north. Yeah,starting to get concerned here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Yeah,starting to get concerned here.. People like to discount the NAM, but it's nothing to ignore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Yeah,starting to get concerned here.. Low has not deepened the last 5 hours and is basically moving due east. Nothing to suggest thus far that this thing will keep moving north. I'd say the 12z NAM was noise level change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Looks like 3 reasons for the bust in N IL and S WI could be: - Convection in OK robbed moisture further north - Drier air from the NE winds - Warm nose around 800-900 mb Any one of these three things could have caused an issue...but when all 3 happen, it won't end well. That's all fine and good - but why couldn't the computer models pick up on this? I still laugh at the 1-2 footer that several models were showing in or near this area 3-5 days ago; it's just a horrendous model performance, both in the short-term and medium-term. No sugar coating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torontonian Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 YYZ getting some steady -SN now too. Little earlier than I thought. Hey SSC, it is Lake O. enhancement. Lake O. flurries this morn. hooked up to synoptic system now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Must be over 2 inches here. Probably better totals than alot of warned areas I was going to say, even I had a trace on the ground this morning up here. Looked like SE MN was doing well for a while last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Looks like 3 reasons for the bust in N IL and S WI could be: - Convection in OK robbed moisture further north - Drier air from the NE winds - Warm nose around 800-900 mb Any one of these three things could have caused an issue...but when all 3 happen, it won't end well. That's all fine and good - but why couldn't the computer models pick up on this? I still laugh at the 1-2 footer that several models were showing in or near this area 3-5 days ago; it's just a horrendous model performance, both in the short-term and medium-term. No sugar coating. Convection down south was a non-issue.Things set up farther north, with a mix into S. WI. In addition, a main/sig f-gen band never took shape or persisted, which cut down on totals up north in the main axis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Hey SSC, it is Lake O. enhancement. Lake O. flurries this morn. hooked up to synoptic system now. Yeah looks like it. Shouldn't add too much to the storm totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Low has not deepened the last 5 hours and is basically moving due east. Nothing to suggest thus far that this thing will keep moving north. I'd say the 12z NAM was noise level change. Already a solid dusting here and moderate snow. Looks like I'm right on the southern edge of the fgen band so hopefully it won't drift too far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Looks like 3 reasons for the bust in N IL and S WI could be: - Convection in OK robbed moisture further north - Drier air from the NE winds - Warm nose around 800-900 mb Any one of these three things could have caused an issue...but when all 3 happen, it won't end well. That's all fine and good - but why couldn't the computer models pick up on this? I still laugh at the 1-2 footer that several models were showing in or near this area 3-5 days ago; it's just a horrendous model performance, both in the short-term and medium-term. No sugar coating. DGZ was shallow last night for sure. Couldn't hang onto the big flakes for more than a half hour at one time it seemed. Averaged out to be about 3.0" this morning. Hoping that deformation band continues to expand to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Nice coating here must be coming down 0.5cm/hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Nice coating here must be coming down 0.5cm/hr Looking at the highway cams around Toronto...roads getting greasy and the rooftops coated. It will letup for a while before the main show though. Nada here in London. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Lol, ^ Starting to see some light snow again. Seems like it could lake involved. Let's go back to your avatar time Tuanis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Looking at the highway cams around Toronto...roads getting greasy and the rooftops coated. It will letup for a while before the main show though. Nada here in London. Didn't last long but it set the mood right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Looks like some good lake enhancement from Racine on north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Snow will move out of Toronto in the next little while and then there'll be a long lull basically until 23z. I'm not sure if that was communicated well by the media. I wonder how many people will perceive it as a busted forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Holy dryslot for SE michigan. Sitting at a light dusting..... NAM had this one pegged so far imo. Time is ticking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 My warning just got increased 10 mins ago. Calling for 7-11 inches now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Montreal issued blizzard warnings. Toronto says 70kmh winds and whiteouts in the winter storm warning, think we have a chance at reaching blizzard criteria? Edit, 'we' as in Ontario, not KW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Backside of this system seems to be organizing a bit better. Maybe a couple more inches to go yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Montreal issued blizzard warnings. Toronto says 70kmh winds and whiteouts in the winter storm warning, think we have a chance at reaching blizzard criteria? That would be crazy, what a balancer if they issue it. I'm close to 1" so far with fine flakes falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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