Baum Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Cards on the table for Wednesday night. That's always been my play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 2.5". Flakes are moderate sized, not really big right now. A lot of them though. Without a doubt the winter that brought the Geos karma machine crashing down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Pretty obvious that the main Fgen band will end up north of here. Those areas will likely jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 The 06z GFS is an absolute epic run for Toronto. From pivotal wx: 1.3" QPF with 12.5" of snow (10:1 method) or 19.1" per the Kuchera method. Pretty deformation zone on the backside on that run. 0 chance it verifies but this one's getting saved to the hard drive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Pretty obvious that the main Fgen band will end up north of here. Those areas will likely jackpot. image.png I think we'll "gap" for a while (maybe 2 hours or so) later this afternoon as it heads north, but I'm wary of giving too much weight to the RAP/HRRR given their biases. That being said, I agree that the max amounts should be just north of Toronto. But still should be an excellent snowstorm for us. All of a sudden all the 6z GEFS members are AOA 1" QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 0 chance it verifies but this one's getting saved to the hard drive. lolgfs.jpg Good luck to everyone. I think we may be in for a great storm! Stay safe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Right now dtx has a warning north of detroit (6-9) and advisory south (3-5) acknowledging the model flip flopping is causing them to be conservative. The main difference in amounts is obviously the fgen band which will leave dtw high and dry (picked up 0.2" overnight). All of SE MI could see some heavy snow rates when the L passes south, just hope we avoid sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Good luck to everyone. I think we may be in for a great storm! Stay safe! Enjoy the model flip flop. Now you're in the best part of the city to realize the + amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 0 chance it verifies but this one's getting saved to the hard drive. lolgfs.jpg I doubt the 6z GFS run will verify, but it would be epic if it did. Anyway, my call for the GTA is 9-13", with the highest amounts in the northern sections (York region). Places like Orangeville/Caledon more like 15+". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Just read the MKE AFD. Bust-o-rama. Just goes to show you not to fall in love with these models. They're not infallible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 I think we'll "gap" for a while (maybe 2 hours or so) later this afternoon as it heads north, but I'm wary of giving too much weight to the RAP/HRRR given their biases. That being said, I agree that the max amounts should be just north of Toronto. But still should be an excellent snowstorm for us. All of a sudden all the 6z GEFS members are AOA 1" QPF. As long as he HRRR/RAP are a little too far north were in great shape. Good luck to you in London! GEFS mean has 1.0-1.2" for the GTA. 0z EPS was similar(a bit drier). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 As long as he HRRR/RAP are a little too far north were in great shape. Good luck to you in London! GEFS mean has 1.0-1.2" for the GTA. 0z EPS was similar(a bit drier). I predict by 1-2pm they'll have sagged south a bit. It's clockwork with them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveNay Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Zero accumulation south of DKB. Barely any precip at all really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luftfeuchtigkeit Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Went to bed last night and woke up to a measly 1" this morning. I guess it took way longer to saturate than the models forecast, and then the snow was light, nothing heavy with the fgen band. We could get up to 1" more this morning with the backside if we're lucky. Good luck everyone up in Toronto, it's looking good up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Sticking with my 8-10" call. I think Ottawa could get close to 15" again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Wow. Hadn't checked the radar, but this thing looks like it needs an energy kick for those further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 What is Jim Cantore doing in Chicago? Covering a 1-3" event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 By looking at the radar this one is going to have a few winners by most of us will be pinged, slotted and underachievers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowcaine Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Sticking with my 8-10" call. I think Ottawa could get close to 15" again. I agree, I think Ottawa is going to get smoked again. I'm still going to maintain my 9.5" call... but with the 8-10" gradient south to north across GTA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 What is Jim Cantore doing in Chicago? Covering a 1-3" event? 1-3" it's literally some like zr/ip in the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 By looking at the radar this one is going to have a few winners by most of us will be pinged, slotted and underachievers.Radar usually blossoms as the storm intensifies. Radar now is not important. Still, high bust potential either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 keep the faith buddy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Zero accumulation south of DKB. Barely any precip at all really. Same. 0.03" of rain, trace of sleet, zero snow. May get a few flurries in the next few hours as those fragments of precip in Iowa work through. Dubuque officially 0.9" so far. I figured they'd be good for at least 5-6" up there. Man, what a tough storm to forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Even the RAP has Toronto in pretty good shape for about 8" of snow...but man what a cutoff to the south <1" just beyond Hamilton's border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 about 1" here. DVN and all other mets in the area busted. I was thinking 2" and they were thinking 3-5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 for some reason im affraid of being a tad to far south. just a gut feeling and I havent spent but an hr all day on this. im just always afraid for that in these setups where you think your good and 30 miles or so north more is. if i end up being to far south that maybe bolds well for a stronger primary for out east. ...not bad fear nice dryslot now and dry air overnight. Good driving conditions at least. good luck out east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Must be over 2 inches here. Probably better totals than alot of warned areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Asides from some sleet, we got ZERO precip from this storm. I can bet hawkeye is biting his nails from this bust... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Even the RAP has Toronto in pretty good shape for about 8" of snow...but man what a cutoff to the south <1" just beyond Hamilton's border. Very different from Anthony Farnell's call, which has Niagara in the 10" + zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 What is Jim Cantore doing in Chicago? Covering a 1-3" event? That's to cover next weeks 70 degree day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.