snowcaine Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 To all our American friends, sorry for all the ON posts and metric units etc, but hey we might be gettin' a hit. . Yep, live in the armpit of Ontario... Didn't even make the map. Starting to think this one might be better measured in mm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Being in the physical sciences I know the metric system very well. Had to learn it. @ Daff - in mm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Main band weakened a good amount and there's some lake action going on. What are your thoughts for the rest of the night?Based on latest mesoanalysis and radar, seems like things are starting to fill back in again in the WI border counties. One thing that we noticed this evening that I probably didn't account enough for is the amount of dry air to the north and east, which could explain why hi res qpf amounts have never been excessive. Also if you loop MKX radar you can see that it's really been fighting the dry air.But as far as for areas south of the stateline counties, I'm hopeful that things will fill in again in predawn hours in response to better large scale lift, though there's some potential for another lull for a few hours before the defo band kinda forms right on top of northeast IL by mid-late morning. Will be interesting to watch it evolve. Definitely conflicting signals on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 EURO 4.5-5" more here, I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Step up slightly from the Euro. Looks solid for a 5 to 8 inch snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Ok. It's like 1.95". By the way it's going right it will be at 2" pretty quickly. Nice. Looks like it's adding up pretty nicely up that way. We've been stuck in sort of a pseudo dry-slot since mid evening. Was expecting it to be sort of a rainy evening, but other than that little burst of light rain at the beginning it's been a complete shutout. There's a little band of precip about to move in from eastern Iowa, that may give us a little light freezing rain. Looks like our main thrust of precip won't come until after daybreak when a little burst of snow showers rotates through on the backside. Hope we can get a little dusting before it departs, but won't be surprised if we get skunked. Hard to believe what's depicted in my avatar is an actual forecast of what this storm was going to deliver just 3-4 days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Based on latest mesoanalysis and radar, seems like things are starting to fill back in again in the WI border counties. One thing that we noticed this evening that I probably didn't account enough for is the amount of dry air to the north and east, which could explain why hi res qpf amounts have never been excessive. Also if you loop MKX radar you can see that it's really been fighting the dry air. But as far as for areas south of the stateline counties, I'm hopeful that things will fill in again in predawn hours in response to better large scale lift, though there's some potential for another lull for a few hours before the defo band kinda forms right on top of northeast IL by mid-late morning. Will be interesting to watch it evolve. Definitely conflicting signals on that. Extremely tough forecast, great job keeping up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Short range models have 850 mb waa increasing temps to 4-5C here later on. I guess that would explain why they are pushing temps above freezing even at unfavorable early-mid morning hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Nice. Looks like it's adding up pretty nicely up that way. We've been stuck in sort of a pseudo dry-slot since mid evening. Was expecting it to be sort of a rainy evening, but other than that little burst of light rain at the beginning it's been a complete shutout. There's a little band of precip about to move in from eastern Iowa, that may give us a little light freezing rain. Looks like our main thrust of precip won't come until after daybreak when a little burst of snow showers rotates through on the backside. Hope we can get a little dusting before it departs, but won't be surprised if we get skunked. Hard to believe what's depicted in my avatar is an actual forecast of what this storm was going to deliver just 3-4 days ago. Up to 2.3" now. The snow up until now was 10:1, but now is beginning to fluff up. Warm ground didn't help the ratio. Band continuing to reform over Lake County. Influence from the lake? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 EURO 0zEURO_030116.png 4.5-5" more here, I'll take it. Nice, southwest Ohio gets the shaft somehow. You can't make this stuff up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 DAFF, I think you'll have dribs and drabs of sleet for the first half of the storm and 5-8 cms snow during the day once the low centre has passed to your south. Freezing rain won't be too bad there, too much phase change back and forth with other types. We may see the rare Lake St Clair lake enhancement setting in with this one. Now thinking 15-20 cms Toronto and Hamilton, fairly narrow sleet or freezing rain band over south Niagara only. 20-30 cm potential from about K-W to Peterborough to Ottawa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 1, 2016 Author Share Posted March 1, 2016 It is annoying that the RAP and HRRR continue to slowly trend NW / warmer. That's usually not the greatest sign, but the hope is that they'll correct the other way like they typically do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 It is annoying that the RAP and HRR continue to slowly trend NW / warmer. That's usually not the greatest sign, but the hope is that they'll correct the other way like they typically do. Yeah, end of the HRRR has the surface low approaching Fort Wayne... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 2.5". Flakes are moderate sized, not really big right now. A lot of them though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Yeah, end of the HRRR has the surface low approaching Fort Wayne... Yeah I don't buy it, HRRR is way overamplified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Yeah I don't buy it, HRRR is way overamplified. Let's hope not for Detroit's sake. 31 here with some spits of light, and I mean light freezing rain (went outside to verify) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Just had a little burst of light sleet. First wintry precip of the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Radar trends looking more and more like a whiff for most of northern Illinois Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Welp...time for a final call. 3z SREF mean up to 8.1" for YYZ. NAM Kuchera per pivotwx now 9.5". EURO, GFS, GEM all 12"+... I'll take an inch or two off the Kuchera numbers and go with a final call range of 7-11". Should be our nicest snowstorm since at least December 2014. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Lloyd Christmas'ed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Light coating on grassy areas. Roads and sidewalks no accums. Not a great pic, but live, from one of my home security cameras facing sidewalk and street. Could see a little more accumulation on the backend, but I'm not thinking more than 1-2" at best. 20 miles south, zero accumulation with very light sleet falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Bummer. Thought we would fare a good deal better to this point. Oh well, if we dodge the next systems it will just allow the WAA to do work quicker with the coming warmup. I also figured you would be doing well. not surprisingly the band is weaker and further north than most models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mogget Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Sleet in southern Wisconsin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 The 06z GFS is an absolute epic run for Toronto. From pivotal wx: 1.3" QPF with 12.5" of snow (10:1 method) or 19.1" per the Kuchera method. Pretty deformation zone on the backside on that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 The 06z GFS is an absolute epic run for Toronto. From pivotal wx: 1.3" QPF with 12.5" of snow (10:1 method) or 19.1" per the Kuchera method. Pretty deformation zone on the backside on that run. Pretty crazy development from the overnight globals! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Pretty crazy development from the overnight globals! Indeed. Great sign that the Euro QPF for YYZ went up to 0.91". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Razor sharp gradient on the RAP. RGEM/HRGEM agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Some weak Lehs organizing on King City radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 0" storm total Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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