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Winter Storm March 1st-2nd (Part 2)


Powerball

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Snowing by you UMB?

 

The warm nose out to the west hasn't made any progress north, in fact it has sunk further south.

 

 

 

Nope - I hadn't even looked until you asked if it was. I knew it wouldn't be when you mentioned how dry it was down there. I knew we'd be toast for a nice chunk of time.

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for some reason im affraid of being  a tad to far south. just a gut feeling and I havent spent but an hr all day on this.

 

im just always afraid for that in these setups where you think your good and 30 miles or so north more is.  if i end up being to far south that maybe bolds well for a stronger primary for out east.

Doubt it
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Nope - I hadn't even looked until you asked if it was. I knew it wouldn't be when you mentioned how dry it was down there. I knew we'd be toast for a nice chunk of time.

 

It will be soon, snowing on the north side of Kenosha now.

 

25° now.

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SN_000-048_0000.gif

 

What a radical shift for an event that's less than 24 hours out. Toronto's lucky it was on the western fringe of the max snow area before because now it's getting basically the same QPF but on the eastern fringe. Niagara is now in line for an ice storm.

 

It's not so much the QPF / storm track that has really changed either, but the thermals.

 

Gotta love Winter 2015-2016.

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SN_000-048_0000.gif

What a radical shift for an event that's less than 24 hours out. Toronto's lucky it was on the western fringe of the max snow area before because now it's getting basically the same QPF but on the eastern fringe. Niagara is now in line for an ice storm.

It'll be interesting to see what the GFS, UKMET and Euro have in store.

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Since no one posted

 

 

mcd0157.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0157
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0849 PM CST MON FEB 29 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEASTERN IOWA...SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...NORTHERN
ILLINOIS...AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN MINNESOTA

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 010249Z - 010845Z

SUMMARY...AREAS OF HEAVY SNOW ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION THIS EVENING...WITH LOCALIZED AREAS EXPERIENCING 1+ INCH
SNOWFALL RATES THROUGH AT LEAST 09Z.

DISCUSSION...RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST
DEVELOPMENT/EXPANSION OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY
UNDERWAY FROM CENTRAL IOWA EASTWARD TO NORTHERN ILLINOIS. THIS
DEVELOPMENT IS IN RESPONSE TO LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH STRENGTHENING
700-500 MB FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH MODELS SUGGEST
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE
REGION REMAINS RELATIVELY DRY IN THE LOWEST LEVELS /DEWPOINTS AS LOW
AS 5-7F IN NORTHERN PARTS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA/... CONTINUED
LIFT/PRECIPITATION WILL RESULT IN A GRADUALLY MOISTENING/COOLING
BOUNDARY LAYER THAT WILL SUPPORT FROZEN PRECIPITATION. THE PRIMARY
PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR THIS REGION IS EXPECTED TO BE SNOW...ALTHOUGH
LOCALIZED AREAS FROM EAST-CENTRAL IOWA INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS MAY
EXPERIENCE PERIODS OF SLEET AS PRECIPITATION FALLS THROUGH A MODEST
WARM LAYER /AROUND 0C/ AROUND 850 MB. OTHERWISE...AT LEAST ONE OR
TWO BANDS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
LOCALIZED AREAS EXPERIENCING GREATER THAN ONE-INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL
RATES OVERNIGHT.

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