HillsdaleMIWeather Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Rapid formation in Southern MI and northern IN occurring right now, GRR just put their advisory on a bit early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luftfeuchtigkeit Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 4km NAM pretty similar to 12km: Nice screw hole over MSN. I'm not expecting a ton of snow here but 1" sounds kind of low still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Updated LOT afd mentioned thunder not out of the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 ? I said 9" earlier this afternoon. His 8" downtown to 10" in suburbs seems reasonable to me. I mentioned 8-12" yesterday and said it wasn't my call, but was my range based on the models. I've only since narrowed that range. Gotchya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Snowing by you UMB? The warm nose out to the west hasn't made any progress north, in fact it has sunk further south. Nope - I hadn't even looked until you asked if it was. I knew it wouldn't be when you mentioned how dry it was down there. I knew we'd be toast for a nice chunk of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 for some reason im affraid of being a tad to far south. just a gut feeling and I havent spent but an hr all day on this. im just always afraid for that in these setups where you think your good and 30 miles or so north more is. if i end up being to far south that maybe bolds well for a stronger primary for out east. Doubt it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowcaine Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Gotchya. Did I say something to upset you? My apologies if so... just let me know so I am more cognizant not to misspeak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Who else wishes RCNYILX was here to give us the facts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Nope - I hadn't even looked until you asked if it was. I knew it wouldn't be when you mentioned how dry it was down there. I knew we'd be toast for a nice chunk of time. It will be soon, snowing on the north side of Kenosha now. 25° now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 just went over to big wet flakes. This winter suxs!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 It's going to be interesting to read the next BUF AFD. They've got a WSW out for their northern CWA for 6-10" of snow...but would probably only get a few inches of sleet should the NAM/RGEM verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Did I say something to upset you? My apologies if so... just let me know so I am more cognizant not to misspeak. Gotchya = I understand. Thanks for clarifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Looks like we transitioned to light freezing rain. 31 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Just drove by the live WGN remote from the Square. 27 and sleeting still. Accumulated on all surfaces at this point, paved and otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 0.7" here so far. Heavy returns developing in Iowa near US 20 heading east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 now heavy snow that is sticking right away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 now heavy snow that is sticking right away No more sleet by me either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 I like this system, it's so kind to me. It's like it is reaching out to get me in the heavier snow and yes it is snow at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 What a radical shift for an event that's less than 24 hours out. Toronto's lucky it was on the western fringe of the max snow area before because now it's getting basically the same QPF but on the eastern fringe. Niagara is now in line for an ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 No more sleet by me either truly heavy snow at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 1, 2016 Author Share Posted March 1, 2016 What a radical shift for an event that's less than 24 hours out. Toronto's lucky it was on the western fringe of the max snow area before because now it's getting basically the same QPF but on the eastern fringe. Niagara is now in line for an ice storm. It's not so much the QPF / storm track that has really changed either, but the thermals. Gotta love Winter 2015-2016. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Very heavy snow now. Already accumulating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 What a radical shift for an event that's less than 24 hours out. Toronto's lucky it was on the western fringe of the max snow area before because now it's getting basically the same QPF but on the eastern fringe. Niagara is now in line for an ice storm. It'll be interesting to see what the GFS, UKMET and Euro have in store. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Since no one posted MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0157NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK0849 PM CST MON FEB 29 2016AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEASTERN IOWA...SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...NORTHERNILLINOIS...AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN MINNESOTACONCERNING...HEAVY SNOWVALID 010249Z - 010845ZSUMMARY...AREAS OF HEAVY SNOW ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THEREGION THIS EVENING...WITH LOCALIZED AREAS EXPERIENCING 1+ INCHSNOWFALL RATES THROUGH AT LEAST 09Z.DISCUSSION...RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTDEVELOPMENT/EXPANSION OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLYUNDERWAY FROM CENTRAL IOWA EASTWARD TO NORTHERN ILLINOIS. THISDEVELOPMENT IS IN RESPONSE TO LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH STRENGTHENING700-500 MB FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH MODELS SUGGESTWILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THEREGION REMAINS RELATIVELY DRY IN THE LOWEST LEVELS /DEWPOINTS AS LOWAS 5-7F IN NORTHERN PARTS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA/... CONTINUEDLIFT/PRECIPITATION WILL RESULT IN A GRADUALLY MOISTENING/COOLINGBOUNDARY LAYER THAT WILL SUPPORT FROZEN PRECIPITATION. THE PRIMARYPRECIPITATION TYPE FOR THIS REGION IS EXPECTED TO BE SNOW...ALTHOUGHLOCALIZED AREAS FROM EAST-CENTRAL IOWA INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS MAYEXPERIENCE PERIODS OF SLEET AS PRECIPITATION FALLS THROUGH A MODESTWARM LAYER /AROUND 0C/ AROUND 850 MB. OTHERWISE...AT LEAST ONE ORTWO BANDS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION...WITHLOCALIZED AREAS EXPERIENCING GREATER THAN ONE-INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALLRATES OVERNIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 It's not so much the QPF / storm track that has really changed either, but the thermals. Gotta love Winter 2015-2016. If I was in WNY or N OH I'd be beside myself right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 HRRR swaying back south again. The warm nose in the mid levels was never supposed to be that deep, so I'm not surprised more locations are flipping to snow now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohiocat5908 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 18Z NAVGEM was very similar to the 18Z GFS. Hoping it stays about the same for 0Z. Riding the line here in Toledo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Very heavy snow now. Already accumulating What the heck picture is that? Lol looking forward to seeing some snow pictures from you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 It'll be interesting to see what the GFS, UKMET and Euro have in store. I suspect they'll come along...maybe not quite as deep. The real concern is whether the trend continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 1, 2016 Author Share Posted March 1, 2016 I suspect they'll come along...maybe not quite as deep. The real concern is whether the trend continues. GFS already looking warmer, if nothing else. Amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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