SchaumburgStormer Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 The friendly wager is on. I bet you get close with 4" or 5", but I'm not expecting much more than 1.5" of dreck down here. Freezing line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 How many times has the NAM been right, though? I'll go with a final call of 8-10" for Toronto, 8" downtown, 10" in the suburbs. Its 6z run was showing the max snow down around Niagara. It's worthless, especially with that suspect deepening. Unless some other models come aboard in putting the max to our north, I'm not buying it. We've seen two storms in a row where a few hi res models get caught up in over-deepening a storm only to come back to earth 8-12 hours later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Ripping hard out there now. Flakes must be 3/4" across. The friendly wager is on. I bet you get close with 4" or 5", but I'm not expecting much more than 1.5" of dreck down here.Still largely sleet here FYI. Believe it's rain in Rockford. Alright then! Liquid in Rockford! I guess that cold air concentrated closer to the lake than the models saw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Wow at the 0z NAM, look at that huge area of 6-12" in Mich....... almost back to the weenie runs a couple days ago lol, lock it in please, I would totally take it's 9" or so here BAHAHA....NAM has 1 foot amounts and then a little bubble of only 5 inches in the midst of it....right where I'm located.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 28 with sleet and freezing rain in Crystal Lake. Cars iced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 The thumb is killing it the past few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 1, 2016 Author Share Posted March 1, 2016 Its 6z run was showing the max snow down around Niagara. It's worthless, especially with that suspect deepening. Unless some other models come aboard in putting the max to our north, I'm not buying it. We've seen two storms in a row where a few hi res models get caught up in over-deepening a storm only to come back to earth 8-12 hours later. It could be right with the overall wetter / stronger trend. If the 500mb trough comes in as sharp as it progs, there will that brief window for this system to rapidly cut northward and deepen before meandering eastward. That, in turn, could lead to borderline explosive development of the deformation axis and some fairly impressive precipitation rates. That said, the NAM is probably being the NAM though in overdoing the WAA and deepening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Extremely heavy sleet now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMidwest Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 I'm in extreme NW rockford, it is power sleeting with a few flakes mixed in... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 It could be right with the overall wetter / stronger trend. If the 500mb comes in a sharp as it progs, there will that brief window for this system to rapidly cut northward and deepen before meandering eastward. That, in turn, could lead to borderline explosive development of the deformation axis. That said, the NAM is probably being the NAM though in overdoing the WAA and deepening. Yes, it could have the right idea but just may have taken it too far with that spurious deepening. Even the left-turn happy RAP keeps the sfc low basically along the I-70 corridor in OH and then into NW PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Did not expect the line to be positioned like this thus far. It's almost undulating North and South Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 0.4" down. High end moderate snow right now. Feel bad for you guys getting ZR and IP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 0.4" down. High end moderate snow right now. Feel bad for you guys getting ZR and IP. And plain rain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowcaine Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 How many times has the NAM been right, though? I'll go with a final call of 8-10" for Toronto, 8" downtown, 10" in the suburbs. I concur your call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 0.4" down. High end moderate snow right now. Feel bad for you guys getting ZR and IP. I think we're switching over now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 1, 2016 Author Share Posted March 1, 2016 Yes, it could have the right idea but just may have taken it too far with that spurious deepening. Even the left-turn happy RAP keeps the sfc low basically along the I-70 corridor in OH and then into NW PA. Are you sure about the bolded? From what I can see on Twisterdata, the 00z RAP seems to be strikingly similar to the 00z NAM. That said, the RAP almost always corrects back towards a SE / colder / weaker solution with time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 And plain rain... Ouch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 I concur your call. You've already said 8-12" in Toronto. Which is it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 I think we're switching over now... Dual pol says don't get too excited... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Are you sure? Fromm what I can see on Twisterdaa, the 00z RAP seems to be strikingly similar to the 00z NAM. There are a couple of RAPs. I'm looking at the 23z run from this website... http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Heavy sleet here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 RGEM looks like it's heading north as well. Actually looks like it has a 996 over Toledo at 24....lol http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 You can see the primary sleet area vs. the snow on this product. Pretty much where Route 120 is in Lake County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Dual pol says don't get too excited...Yup. Geos is in it to win it, he just has to hope once the current firehose passes that the band doesn't move north.For the rest of us, precip type looks to hold for awhile according to radar, barring especially heavy returns like what homedis is currently under. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 1, 2016 Author Share Posted March 1, 2016 There are a couple of RAPs. I'm looking at the 23z run from this website... http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/ Meh, I'm not going to fret over it either way for the time being. The trends overall are positive, as far as this now evolving into a storm with decent to impressive cold sector precipitation. Even the NAM's thermals are still at that point where it would only take for it being a degree or two off for a favorable outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Meh, I'm not going to fret over it either way for now. The trends overall are positive, as far as this now evolving into a storm with decent to impressive cold sector precipitation. Even the NAM's thermals are still at that point where it would only take for it being a degree or two off for a favorable outcome. RGEM seems to give the NAM some merit. Won't deny it. Doesn't have the same axis of heavy snowfall displaced well to the NW of the sfc low along the former arctic front like the NAM does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Heavy sleet here. Could be a wrinkle in the works...if it stays too warm aloft then the area that could get in on heavy totals could be even narrower than thought. Just something to watch this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 for some reason im affraid of being a tad to far south. just a gut feeling and I havent spent but an hr all day on this. im just always afraid for that in these setups where you think your good and 30 miles or so north more is. if i end up being to far south that maybe bolds well for a stronger primary for out east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Snowing by you UMB? The warm nose out to the west hasn't made any progress north, in fact it has sunk further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowcaine Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 You've already said 8-12" in Toronto. Which is it? ? I said 9" earlier this afternoon. His 8" downtown to 10" in suburbs seems reasonable to me. I mentioned 8-12" yesterday and said it wasn't my call, but was my range based on the models. I've only since narrowed that range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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