homedis Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Should last too long. Mainly snow here, little sleet. Think u meant "shouldn't" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Think u meant "shouldn't" You're fast. Typing on my phone. Already fixed it. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Yeah, strange evolution. It's a tick weaker/drier than the 18z run, yet it's also a tick warmer/NW. In the end looks like it may end up being an improvement re: snow amounts from the 18z run for both of us but that deepening between 18 and 21 is suspect. 6-7 millibars in 3 hours seems excessive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 You're fast. Typing on my phone. Already fixed it. Lol. Hahah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowcaine Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Woah, NAM jumped way north with jackpot swath... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Woah, NAM jumped way north with jackpot swath... Yeah, it gets it to almost BUF. Hopefully it doesn't impact us p-type wise...assuming it's even believable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowcaine Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Yeah, it gets it to almost BUF. Hopefully it doesn't impact us p-type wise...assuming it's even believable. We are on the rain/snow cusp with the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 1, 2016 Author Share Posted March 1, 2016 Yeah, it gets it to almost BUF. Hopefully it doesn't impact us p-type wise...assuming it's even believable. We at least have p-type issues on that run verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Yeah, strange evolution. It's a tick weaker/drier than the 18z run, yet it's also a tick warmer/NW. Going to be a garbage model right to the bitter end it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowcaine Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Strongest NAM run yet... smokes southern Lake Huron Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 We are on the rain/snow cusp with the NAM No we're not. Sleet maybe. Not rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 1, 2016 Author Share Posted March 1, 2016 In the end looks like it may end up being an improvement re: snow amounts from the 18z run for both of us but that deepening between 18 and 21 is suspect. 6-7 millibars in 3 hours seems excessive. What's important has been the trend towards a wetter system for all, so there's that. It was unreasonable to not expect thermals to potentially be impacted in exchange. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 I still think the writing's been on the wall with this one and 00z NAM agrees. I don't think anywhere in Illinois (except within 3 SM of Mt Geos of course) hits warning criteria with this one. I'm known to be off my rocker at times, so I'll eat that crow straight up if I have to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowcaine Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 No we're not. Sleet maybe. Not rain. Well, it's dangerously close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 I still think the writing's been on the wall with this one and 00z NAM agrees. I don't think anywhere in Illinois (except within 3 SM of Mt Geos of course) hits warning criteria with this one. I'm known to be off my rocker at times, so I'll eat that crow straight up if I have to. Still not snow by you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Well, it's dangerously close. No. Unless you're seeing something I'm not. Per pivotwx maps rain never gets north of the south shore of Lake Erie. Sleet does get as far north as Oakville. The heaviest snow swath is to our north now...lol...12-18". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 I still think the writing's been on the wall with this one and 00z NAM agrees. I don't think anywhere in Illinois (except within 3 SM of Mt Geos of course) hits warning criteria with this one. I'm known to be off my rocker at times, so I'll eat that crow straight up if I have to. Looking straight west, I think north of Route 120 will mostly hit warning criteria. The sound of sleet is quickly fading now and it's start to rip pretty good now. Snow sticking on the ground already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 0z NAM looks very December 11-12, 2000. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 0z NAM looks very December 11-12, 2000. I very much remember that storm. I believe we got 10" out of that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 No. Unless you're seeing something I'm not. Per pivotwx maps rain never gets north of the south shore of Lake Erie. Sleet does get as far north as Oakville. The heaviest snow swath is to our north now...lol...12-18". Do you think it's possible we could get a foot of snow out of this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 I very much remember that storm. I believe we got 10" out of that storm. I think YYZ and downtown recorded more like 8". There was TSSN but we changed over to ZR which impacted accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Do you think it's possible we could get a foot of snow out of this? Possible yes. Likely, no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Wow at the 0z NAM, look at that huge area of 6-12" in Mich....... almost back to the weenie runs a couple days ago lol, lock it in please, I would totally take it's 9" or so here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterStorm294 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 4km NAM pretty similar to 12km: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Possible yes. Likely, no. So, just to confirm, the NAM is showing 12-18" for the Toronto suburbs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Models actually try to poke me above freezing tomorrow morning. Current temps/dews are running somewhat below raw model output though so I'm not sure if that will happen...or if it does it would be more delayed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 So, just to confirm, the NAM is showing 12-18" for the Toronto suburbs? No...it's well north. Main axis is from southern Lake Huron through Barrie. Toronto gets about 8". You maybe 10". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Ridin' that edge! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 No...it's well north. Main axis is from southern Lake Huron through Barrie. Toronto gets about 8". You maybe 10". How many times has the NAM been right, though? I'll go with a final call of 8-10" for Toronto, 8" downtown, 10" in the suburbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Looking straight west, I think north of Route 120 will mostly hit warning criteria. The sound of sleet is quickly fading now and it's start to rip pretty good now. Snow sticking on the ground already. The friendly wager is on. I bet you get close with 4" or 5", but I'm not expecting much more than 1.5" of dreck down here.Still largely sleet here FYI. Believe it's rain in Rockford. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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