michsnowfreak Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Hell 6" is something big in March. Also would be the biggest storm of the year if we did hit 6" or better. The super storm amounts from last week were smoke and mirrors.DTW had 6.0" on Nov 21st but I have yet to have a 6" storm this year. This winter has definitely had its share of wintry bouts despite strong nino, but my largest has been 4.9" (also Nov 21). This after a 16.5" storm last year and I think 7 or 8 warning criteria snowstorms in 2013-14. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Right but I can't remember if it's better to be north or south of the divergence? Does the drop off between the two result in higher qpf amounts, whether it's summer or winter? I thought north was better but I could be way wrong. I expected this to be between Milwaukee and Chicago, given rain/ice/mix/snow showings on the HRRR I think you want to be just north of the divergence zone. Here's a f-gen map. I would image on how to read this is your looking for the band just north of the purple shaded area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 When is the storm forecast to be at its most intense? Overnight into Wednesday? I think many in Toronto might be surprised by just how much snow falls, if these model predictions pan out. I dunno. Farnell on Global was hitting the message pretty hard. Heaviest snow should be tomorrow evening to about midnight before slowly winding down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 I think if you follow the 850mb fronto you will get a good sense of where the good band is going to set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 I think if you follow the 850mb fronto you will get a good sense of where the good band is going to set up. That's way north though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Front just came through here dropped 9 degrees in 8 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Light rain has begun here. Temp still languishing at 45. Should drop off a little more quickly in an hour or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Front just came through here dropped 9 degrees in 8 minutes. Very strong front went through here as well a couple of hours ago. Very strong and bitter wind out of the northwest. Similar sudden temperature drop to what you just experienced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 I think if you follow the 850mb fronto you will get a good sense of where the good band is going to set up. Yeah first set of blue dashed lines. You can see it on radar along US 20 in IL. State line focused event is my call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Rain in La Grange IL Sent from my XT1526 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Flakes starting to fly here. 29° Heavy returns heading for Tuanis. Grid up to 4-10" now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Yeah first set of blue dashed lines. You can see it on radar along US 20 in IL. State line focused event is my call. I think that's still a good call. Latest forecast soundings are impressive overnight using RFD with very strong lift and steep midlevel lapse rates. Still at the office and we think the RAP/HRRR are unrealistically low with precip over northern IL predawn into early AM hours given magnitude of forcing from next wave and still good fgen over the area as well as column being saturated. The best overlap on 18z NAM of fgen and saturated negative epv (slantwise instability) above it on a cross section from southern WI to I-88 corridor is right in northern tier of counties/far southern WI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 I think that's still a good call. Latest forecast soundings are impressive overnight using RFD with very strong lift and steep midlevel lapse rates. Still at the office and we think the RAP/HRRR are unrealistically low with precip over northern IL predawn into early AM hours given magnitude of forcing from next wave and still good fgen over the area as well as column being saturated. The best overlap on 18z NAM of fgen and saturated negative epv (slantwise instability) above it on a cross section from southern WI to I-88 corridor is right in northern tier of counties/far southern WI.I swear I just saw lightning outside... Im definitely going crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Anyways, light snow outside currently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowcaine Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 When is the storm forecast to be at its most intense? Overnight into Wednesday? I think many in Toronto might be surprised by just how much snow falls, if these model predictions pan out. Why surprised? EC has done a great job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Should that radar hole between Cedar Rapids and the quad cities fill in, it would look good for an over performer slightly south of the warning area Also, temp dropped like a rock. Down to 33 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 1, 2016 Author Share Posted March 1, 2016 18z GFS ensembles were pretty much in lock step agreement (and many were even stronger / wetter than) the OP's amped up run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Got some dry air up here. Still just random flakes here and there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Steady light rain here. Temp has dropped off quicker lately. Down to 39. Picked up 0.02" so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Now things are cooking. Big flakes falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Radar trends looking good Geos. Enjoy it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Hoping we can fill this in a little... But yeah enjoy it Geos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Temp down to 35F (according to Washington High School WeatherBug Station). Very likely going to get a significant pasting tonight. Going to make a generous call of about 3 inches of very wet snow. I'm guessing 1 inch for Cedar Rapids. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Thanks guys. Looking great downstream on radar. Should be in moderate snow soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Thanks guys. Looking great downstream on radar. Should be in moderate snow soon. Looking like some heavy returns might make its way to my area. Here's to hoping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Things are very sleety here with some flakes mixed in. Ping ping ping. Edit: looks like it's sleety up by geos as well according to CC radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 NAM reverting to its 12z solution. What a piece of garbage. huh...at 18 it looks like the lowest closed contour it has is 1008mb, then 3 hours later at 21 it's closed of a 1000mb contour, which gets it closer to its 18z solution re: depth. That's odd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 long day today with monday work and also finalizing the details for my fathers retirement day and party tomorrow night. so yeah im behind.. hopefully things still looking good for those invested. hope im not too north or too south of the goods lol..these are nerve wracking watching radar... I liked where we stood the last two days..I also tend to like to be north of where you would have thought the good band would have set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 1, 2016 Author Share Posted March 1, 2016 NAM reverting to its 12z solution. What a piece of garbage. huh...at 18 it looks like the lowest closed contour it has is 1008mb, then 3 hours later at 21 it's closed of a 1000mb contour, which gets it closer to its 18z solution re: depth. That's odd. Yeah, strange evolution. It's a tick weaker/drier than the 18z run, yet it's also a tick warmer/NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Things are very sleety here with some flakes mixed in. Ping ping ping. Should not last too long. Mainly snow here, little sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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