Powerball Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Keep it moving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 To Wedges: I would root for the front to drop past I-80, so you could get some good banding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 fwiw, precip type map to go along with what I posted above southern fringe of the band tries to get mixy as you can see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 To Wedges: I would root for the front to drop past I-80, so you could get some good banding. Sounds good. Here's to the last nail biter for, hopefully, a while! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 24hr HRRR looking money for far northern/northeastern IL. Already dumping hardcore by 10pm tomorrow night. Down here, drip drip drip drip. Sigh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Wasn't going to start watching the HRRR this early, but Hoosier got me hooked in now. I would expect the SREF plumes to change significantly at 3z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Better image Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 24hr HRRR looking money for far northern/northeastern IL. Already dumping hardcore by 10pm tomorrow night. Down here, drip drip drip drip. Sigh. Somebody is going to get plowed there by Tuesday morning. The model signals are very impressive and could easily envision localized amounts of double digits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Somebody is going to get plowed there by Tuesday morning. The model signals are very impressive and could easily envision localized amounts of double digits. If you can ride the cold side of that mixing line, someone will be in business Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Seeing that particular map; and if the band trains over the same areas, Homedis would cash in time time - maybe Tuanis. 3pm and the front is knocking on the door here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Seeing that particular map; and if the band trains over the same areas, Homedis would cash in time time - maybe Tuanis. Rooting for one of you guys to cash in, and hopefully get close to a foot. Take lots of pics. We'll be living vicariously through your obs. Definitely going to be interesting to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Big picture, still looks like some good members on the 3z SREF. Definitely a lot of spread though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Rooting for one of you guys to cash in, and hopefully get close to a foot. Take lots of pics. We'll be living vicariously through your obs. Definitely going to be interesting to watch. It will be very interesting late tomorrow that is for sure. Will be interesting to see how prepared people are too. 0.13 to 14.66" on the 3z SREF. Mean 5.8" Looks like the SREF has the heaviest snow near the state line. Alright enough for tonight - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Nice to see the EURO, despite the general cutback in totals, still rocking us pretty well. Setting aside the 0z NAM, pretty solid consensus for an 8"+ snowfall in Toronto. Would be a nice way to distance this winter from 2011-12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Tough to tell if the 6z NAM will be funky again. Looks colder/south through 18. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 HPC showing some confidence. SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST MONDAY NIGHT, THENTHE OH VALLEY TUE AND NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~PREFERENCE: ECMWF/CANADIAN COMPROMISECONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGEJUST WHEN THE GUIDANCE HAD BECOME TIGHTLY PACKED, THE 00Z GUIDANCECHOSE TO SPEED UP, WITH THE 00Z UKMET IN ITS USUAL POLE POSITIONOUT FRONT WITH THE 00Z NAM DAWDLING BEHIND. THE MODELS HAVE BEENSTEADFAST IN THEIR ERRATICNESS, INCLUDING THE ECMWF. THEINTERMEDIATE 00Z ECMWF/00Z CANADIAN LIE WITHIN THE NORTHEAST SIDEOF THE 12Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE LOW CLUSTERING (WHICH ITSELF MAY NOLONGER BE IMPORTANT CONSIDERING MODEL TRENDS), WITH A COMPROMISEOF THE TWO PREFERRED WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Total cluster on the 6z NAM...not very pretty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 29, 2016 Author Share Posted February 29, 2016 06z NAM's even worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Total cluster on the 6z NAM...not very pretty. dprog/dt-ing this thing from the 0z run, I had to make sure I didn't get the wrong frame...the differences were so great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 dprog/dt-ing this thing from the 0z run, I had to make sure I didn't get the wrong frame...the differences were so great. NAM just letting everyone know that it is a terrible model, I bet the 4km will be wildly different from the 12km. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 NAM just letting everyone know that it is a terrible model, I bet the 4km will be wildly different from the 12km. Yup. Easy toss. edit...lol even with that garbage evolution though...still almost half a foot in Toronto. We may be golden with this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 To those who didn't see it coming, the 06Z 4K NAM is much more GEM/Euro like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Winter Storm Warning for the northern tier of LOT, with an advisory in the tier south of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 EC pulled trigger on a winter storm watch for much of Southern Ontario. 15-30cm (6-12") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 There's been a trend to a slightly faster, weaker storm. NAM is the most illustrative of it (and probably too much so) but I also noticed it in both the 0z EURO and 6z GFS. Hopefully the 12z suite locks onto this storm given it'll be fully sampled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 EC pulled trigger on a winter storm watch for much of Southern Ontario. 15-30cm (6-12") Yep. 2nd one of the year for Toronto. Let's hope this one is upgraded and verifies. I'll put my first call as 6-8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 .33 final call Next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Another cluster. After Wednesday's teaser it's time to put this winter to bed. Not an overall unexpected result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Another cluster. After Wednesday's teaser it's time to put this winter to bed. Not an overall unexpected result. fgen band well to our north in WI and a super boring weak low passing well southeast worst of both worlds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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