bl5585 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 AREAS WELL SOUTH OF 1-80 WILL WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING THURSDAY SOEXPECTING RAIN AND SNOW. THIS WILL LIMIT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND IS THEREASON THIS AREA WAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE ADVISORY. FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET ARE NOT EXPECTED AS SATURATED SOUNDINGS WARM THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS LEADING TO ALL RAIN. I was wondering why I wasn't included. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Synoptic will be a whiff here but RGEM/NAM showing some interesting lake banding, even meso-low potential, on E/ENE flow over Lake Ontario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 20z RAP run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 I'll stick with my updated 2-4" call from last night, but thinking we'll be on the low end of that. Euro would indicate less than 2". NAM/GFS would be more like 3-4", but trend this year in this area is for the driest model to win out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 ORD 1.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 So the NAM, RGEM, and GFS at 00z have dried the crap out of this system, at least over Iowa. The morning runs had 0.20-0.40", but the evening runs are down to only 0.05-0.07". I don't understand how the models can be so confused about the amount of moisture available. It has been snowing for the last hour, but it has had some trouble sticking to the pavement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Returns going overhead have all been virga, as expected. Going to say 2.3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 So the NAM, RGEM, and GFS at 00z have dried the crap out of this system, at least over Iowa. The morning runs had 0.20-0.40", but the evening runs are down to only 0.05-0.07". I don't understand how the models can be so confused about the amount of moisture available. It has been snowing for the last hour, but it has had some trouble sticking to the pavement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 DVN just sent a new update lowering totals to 0.5 to 2 inches due to the models overdoing the moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 DVN just sent a new update lowering totals to 0.5 to 2 inches due to the models overdoing the moisture. Yeah, radar looks like **** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Returns going overhead have all been virga, as expected. Going to say 2.3" DKB is reporting something now. I thought there would be more bands on radar over 20 dbz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 3, 2016 Author Share Posted March 3, 2016 NAM went drier here but looking over the past several runs of the the RAP and HRRR, they have been consistently wetter so we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Didn't start snowing until about 9:30 or so, and was extremely light for the first half hour. It's picked up quite a bit though in the past 20 mins and is already dusting the grass. Paved areas still wet as of now. 29 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Give it time, Geos. Snowing here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 HRRRRRrr continues to indicate a fairly narrow area of enhanced totals from around this area down towards La Salle of around 0.3-0.4" precip. If that does come to fruition we have a shot of our 2nd heaviest snow of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Snowing decently here in southeast Naperville. Based off fact that dry air was overcome fairly easily and radar trends, thinking this will perform fairly close to expectations when I worked on forecast with public desk today. Despite the variances in model qpf, they all consistently held with bringing across 2-2.5 g/kg 700 mb or 750-700 mb mixing ratios. Garcia method from that yields max amounts up to 4" or so, which still seems most likely to occur out farther west in the CWA. Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Snowing steadily, small flakes. Dusting on roads Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 About a half inch now. Flake size not too bad. Street is still mostly just wet, but the sidewalks and drive has become covered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDude Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Snow is pretty snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Flurries flying here now. 4z HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 About an inch so far here. Thinking my initial call would have worked out well. 2" is the new warning criteria threshold this season lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 I think Cyclone will win this one. GFS has a third system on the way now! lol. Tonight's outcome didn't quite work out as well as this. Radar trends are indicating we'll finish under 1.5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Snowing decently here in southeast Naperville. Based off fact that dry air was overcome fairly easily and radar trends, thinking this will perform fairly close to expectations when I worked on forecast with public desk today. Despite the variances in model qpf, they all consistently held with bringing across 2-2.5 g/kg 700 mb or 750-700 mb mixing ratios. Garcia method from that yields max amounts up to 4" or so, which still seems most likely to occur out farther west in the CWA. Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk 2015-2016 wins again lol. Wasn't thinking this would be a big event - our official forecast yesterday only had 1-3" in most of the metro, 2-4" farther west near I-80/88. Was only focusing on snow impacts to the commute with the WWA that had been issued and that was conveyed in AFD and social media. Still certainly didn't expect the snow to largely be winding down already and that will result in lower totals than forecast and took away justification for why we and DVN had issued an advisory. Bring on the warmth next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 .5 busted high, 'copter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Ummm......bust. Feels exhilarating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 What a joke this year is. Bring on the heat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Ummm......bust. Feels exhilarating. Haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Haha May as well move to Columbus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 had dreams of a 3" stack of hotcakes and sides of bacon and sausage in the forecast for tomorrow nights dinner.. Woke up to the reality I can't have Gluten and it's the winter of 15/16. At least I'll have Bacon>Snow 2-3" was the early call from NWS when i went to bed. Woke up to - up to 1" How low can we go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 had dreams of a 3" stack of hotcakes and sides of bacon and sausage in the forecast for tomorrow nights dinner.. Woke up to the reality I can't have Gluten and it's the winter of 15/16. At least I'll have Bacon>Snow 2-3" was the early call from NWS when i went to bed. Woke up to - up to 1" How low can we go. Didn't you just get a good snow a couple days ago lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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