Spring in the Valley 2016

[jaxjagman]

Front made it through our area,much cooler behind it.

 

 

...5TH DRIEST APRIL IN NASHVILLE...AND THE DRIEST SINCE 1992...

NASHVILLE EXPERIENCED ITS DRIEST APRIL SINCE 1992 AND THE 5TH
DRIEST ON RECORD. RAINFALL RECORDS FOR NASHVILLE DATE BACK TO
1870.

FIVE DRIEST APRIL`S ON RECORD:
1986...0.52
1915...0.72
1992...0.77
1987...1.03
2016...1.12

RAINFALL FOR APRIL 2016 TOTALED 1.12 INCHES WHICH IS 2.88 INCHES
BELOW NORMAL.THE GREATEST RAINFALL IN A 24 HOUR PERIOD WAS 0.68
INCH ON MARCH 31ST AND APRIL 1ST. APRIL 2016 WAS THE DRIEST MONTH
IN NASHVILLE SINCE SEPTEMBER 2014.

THE TEMPERATURE AVERAGED ABOVE 3.4 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN NASHVILLE
FOR APRIL. THE AVERAGE HIGH WAS 74.6 DEGREES AND THE AVERAGE LOW
WAS 50.2 DEGREES. THERE WERE NO TEMPERATURE RECORDS TIED OR BROKEN
IN APRIL. APRIL 2016 WAS THE 8TH CONSECUTIVE APRIL WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN NASHVILLE.

THERE WERE 3 DAYS WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN APRIL.

THE AVERAGE WIND SPEED WAS 7.0 MILES AN HOUR. THE FASTEST GUST WAS
49 MILES AN HOUR FROM THE SOUTH ON THE 11TH.

THERE WERE 7 DAYS WITH FOG. NO DAYS WITH DENSE FOG.

NO TORNADOES OCCURRED IN TENNESSEE DURING THE MONTH OF APRIL 2016.
THE LAST TIME THERE WERE NO TORNADOES IN THE MONTH OF APRIL IN
TENNESSEE WAS IN 2005.

[nrgjeff]

Split flow over the US with jet stream confluence approximately over the Appalachians really squashed April precip. Even when surface highs did not barrel down from the Ohio Valley, confluence aloft was an issue. Systems coming out of the southern Plains weakened and filled coming our way. I still think this week rainfall will come in under QPFs. 

 

Northwest flow is forecast later this week through the weekend. Next week should warm up ahead of the next Plains system but again split flow dominates. Northern stream will cause upper level confluence again early in the week. Split flow is forecast to relax late next week but the damage will be done. Plains system should be weakening as it lumbers across.

 

If I remember right 1-2 members here do not like severe weather. You are in luck! The pattern does not allow much action into the Valley even if the Midsouth gets grazed. Late May weekly guidance has new western/Plains troughs, but still split flow. Northern stream has less influence in late May but it is not a big severe weather pattern in the Valley.

[JayCee]

 

Severe Thunderstorm Watch

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 138NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK215 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 138 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDTFOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONSTNC001-009-013-019-025-029-057-059-063-067-073-089-091-093-105-129-145-151-155-163-171-173-179-030200-/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0138.160502T1815Z-160503T0200Z/TN.    TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED AREANDERSON             BLOUNT              CAMPBELLCARTER               CLAIBORNE           COCKEGRAINGER             GREENE              HAMBLENHANCOCK              HAWKINS             JEFFERSONJOHNSON              KNOX                LOUDONMORGAN               ROANE               SCOTTSEVIER               SULLIVAN            UNICOIUNION                WASHINGTON$$

[Jed33]

Not very impressed with the system moving through this evening. Looks like storms are very scattered, and once again amounts, at least at the house are very light. Unless something changes drastically, my total for today's rainfall will be a trace.

[Runman292]

Not very impressed with the system moving through this evening. Looks like storms are very scattered, and once again amounts, at least at the house are very light. Unless something changes drastically, my total for today's rainfall will be a trace.

I know that we are in need of rain, but IMO, I would be glad to not be hit by some of these storms today. Farragut got hammered by ping pong ball to golf ball size hail.

[Jed33]

No doubt Runman, definitely don't need the severe hail. Hope everyone is alright

[jaxjagman]

[jaxjagman]

Meteorological Summer starts next month.The same date it starts the weeklies hint at moving a 592dm into the Valley,hinting at mid 90's for you guys in the Eastern Valley already.It's to early for that .

[JayCee]

Meteorological Summer starts next month.The same date it starts the weeklies hint at moving a 592dm into the Valley,hinting at mid 90's for you guys in the Eastern Valley already.It's to early for that .

 

Yes it is, and while some areas got a good dose of water yesterday, I only rec'd .26, and many areas that report via CoCoRaHS around me had even less--around .10-.15".  Not the widespread soaking rain we needed in the Valley before the heat arrives. 

[Stovepipe]

I've been fairly lucky lately with the rain, so I'm thankful.  I did experience the worst hail yesterday evening that I've had since April 2011.  Fortunately no insurance claims involved this time, just some minor plant damage.  The lightning was fierce!  

[Mr Bob]

I've been fairly lucky lately with the rain, so I'm thankful.  I did experience the worst hail yesterday evening that I've had since April 2011.  Fortunately no insurance claims involved this time, just some minor plant damage.  The lightning was fierce!  

Did you miss out on the late May hailer in 2013? Had some nickel to quarter sized hail just off of N Gallaher.......

[Carvers Gap]

[JayCee]

Some very interesting weather moving this afternoon and tonight.  A substantial line of blustery showers and storms moving in late in the day with hail a good possibility in many places.  And, of course, snow in the high mountains. 

[Carvers Gap]

Snowed on LeConte last night!

http://www.highonleconte.com/daily-posts/may516-surprise-surprise

[Carvers Gap]

3" of snow! Wow. #mtleconte

http://www.highonleconte.com/daily-posts/a-little-snow-on-the-mountain

[JayCee]

I accumulated 1.15" of rain in a very short time this morning as intense thunderstorms hit around 4 a.m.  The cloud to ground lightning was the most intense I've seen this year, so far.  It sounded like several bolts hit VERY nearby this morning.  Forget the alarm clock... mother nature woke me up today.

[Jed33]

Amazing how the last two overnight and early mornings have worked out. Last night, most of the heaviest went south of me, but the night before, it raked us. Tremendous cloud to ground lightning and wind. In fact, a guy down the road from me, about a mile, lost his house yesterday in the early AM storms, as it was struck by a bolt of lightning. We ended up with just over an inch of rain from those storms. Whereas last night, only got around .25in of rain.

[dwagner88]

I haven't had over an inch of rain in a single day since early March. Running way behind now. It's hard to erase a deficit over most summers as well. I have to think that we are heading into a hot and dry one.

[PowellVolz]

Had 1.18" last night. Nickel/dime size hail with a 42mph gust. Lightning was intense.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Jed33]

Looks like it got a little colder last night here than forecasted. That was all it took to make for a little patchy frost in the yard. Here is a zoomed in picture, as the sun was already up, and melting it fast, when I took this. The temp bottomed out at 35 here at the house. Have to say, this is about the latest I've ever seen frost occur.

[Carvers Gap]

Amazing to still be talking frost this late. Not unprecedented but unusual. Fall is only 3.5 mos away.

[John1122]

34 here this morning, hoping I don't have to say goodbye to my tomatoes, melon crops, corn and cucumbers.

[jaxjagman]

US Hazards Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EDT May 16 2016

Synopsis: At the beginning of the Outlook period, an east-west oriented stationary front is predicted to be located along the Gulf Coast, with a surface low pressure center expected near the western end of this front. This stationary front is forecast to transition into a mid-latitude cyclonic system, with the associated surface low pressure center tracking east-northeastward across the Tennessee Valley and North Carolina, prior to moving off the mid-Atlantic coast. By early next week, a cold front is anticipated to move into the northern and central Great Plains region. Elsewhere, a series of weak low pressure systems are expected to affect the western and southern coasts of Alaska.

Hazards
Heavy rain is forecast from eastern Texas and Louisiana eastward to South Carolina and northern Florida, with a northward extension predicted across western and central portions of both Tennessee and Kentucky, Thu-Fri, May 19-20.
Heavy rain across much of the mid-Atlantic, Sat-Sun, May 21-22.
Flooding possible, likely, occurring, or imminent across parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley (Missouri River), Nebraska/Wyoming (North Platte River) and near the Arklatex (Sulphur River near Naples, Texas), Thu-Sat, May 19-21.
Severe Drought across much of California and Nevada (and adjacent parts of Arizona and Oregon), north-central Wyoming, and Hawaii.
Detailed Summary

For Thursday May 19 - Monday May 23: A stationary front predicted along the Gulf Coast at the onset of the Outlook period is expected to transition into a mid-latitude cyclonic system. A wave of low pressure is forecast to move along the front, introducing heavy rain (1-3 inches in a 48-hour period) to much of the Southeast, most of Tennessee and Kentucky, the Lower Mississippi Valley, and eastern Texas on May 19-20. This may exacerbate flooding concerns in parts of this region, given the flooding that occurred within the past few weeks. It is unclear at this time whether this low pressure center will continue through the Ohio Valley as the dominant storm center, or if a new surface Low will develop and become the dominant storm center along the coast of North Carolina. With either scenario, heavy rain (1-2 inches) is expected for portions of the mid-Atlantic on May 21-22. If the Ohio Valley track verifies, heavy rain could make it as far north as Long Island, NY. If the coastal Low scenario verifies, heavy rain may not even get as far north as the Nation's Capital. The area of heavy rain designated on the map is therefore a compromise between these two solutions.

A cold front is expected to move into the northern Rockies at the start of this period. Around 1.5 inches of rain is anticipated from the Bitterroot Range along the Idaho/Montana border into Wyoming's Teton Range from May 19-22. Although significant, these anticipated precipitation amounts over a 4-day period do not meet hazardous criteria.

Flooding is possible, likely, occurring, or imminent across parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley (Missouri River), Nebraska/Wyoming (North Platte River) and near the Arklatex (Sulphur River near Naples, Texas), Thu-Sat, May 19-21. An observation taken at 7:15 am CDT this morning (May 16) indicates a river stage of 33.75 feet, just shy of the major flooding threshold of 34 feet. Nominal flood stage for this area is 22 feet. Additional information regarding the current and predicted status of the rivers noted above may be obtained at the River Forecast Center (RFC) webpage at http://water.weather.gov/ahps/rfc/rfc.php

Elsewhere, several weak low pressure systems are predicted to affect western and southern portions of Alaska. Therefore, no hazards have been designated for Alaska.

[Stovepipe]

The last two runs of the NAM have wanted to dump an inch of rain on TYS Friday.  It sure would be nice for that to happen and then clear out for the weekend.

[John1122]

I still can't adjust to the non-caps reports from the weather service offices. I've actually had an abundance of rain this month. Creeks are running high for this time of year, and the ground is saturated.

[Stovepipe]

I still can't adjust to the non-caps reports from the weather service offices. I've actually had an abundance of rain this month. Creeks are running high for this time of year, and the ground is saturated.

 

We need to make one of those whitehouse petitions, maybe we can get enough people to sign to force Obama to address this terrible situation.

 

So it's YOU that's been stealing all my rain!  

[jaxjagman]

The last two runs of the NAM have wanted to dump an inch of rain on TYS Friday.  It sure would be nice for that to happen and then clear out for the weekend.

[dwagner88]

Really disappointed with the looks of the radar right now. Hopefully it fills in more as the afternoon wears on. At this rate, my storm total is going to be under 0.25". MRX was calling for 1-2", which would have been my biggest total for a single day since late February.

[jaxjagman]

Really disappointed with the looks of the radar right now. Hopefully it fills in more as the afternoon wears on. At this rate, my storm total is going to be under 0.25". MRX was calling for 1-2", which would have been my biggest total for a single day since late February.

Models were showing this,1-2", for yall.I noticed yesterday the models started to shift the higher amounts to our NW of us where they weren't showing much of anything while at the same time much less for you guys than what they were showing.

 

We should end up with around 1.25".Most we've seen in awhile.

[jaxjagman]

Record highs on going into Japan.We should see a good warm up starting into next weekend,into the following week,after that that pattern looks to reload,some places in the Valley could see some low to mid 90's,nothing organized for us ,after this the pattern should reload  more or less  cool off briefly